21 August 2023
Dr. Naveed Elahi
After one uncertainty is over, another one is looming large on the political horizon of Pakistan. The PDM government has wrapped up the parliamentary term well within the stipulated time, giving an end to crapshoot galore, in this regard. Nevertheless, several uncertainties still exist, especially pertaining to the timely holding of general elections, which can be delayed by the precarious economic situation and rampant political instability in the country.
Albeit as per the Constitution of Pakistan elections ought to be held in November this year, political pundits predict potential postponement until the early months of the next year. The apparent reason for this expected delay in the elections is the constitutional obligation to revise constituencies based on the new census conducted this year. The antagonists consider it more of a political move rather than a constitutional requirement. The protagonists deem it a pragmatic approach to stabilise the country and strengthen the economic revival in light of the IMF program instead of pushing the country again in the political instability caused by the self-serving politicians.
The outgoing PDM government led by Shehbaz Sharif barely managed to sign the deal with IMF after prolonged and perplexing endeavours that kept the nation on tenterhooks for almost a year. The challenge for Pakistan is to keep the promises done with IMF, keep the reforms on tracks and ensure the revival of economy. Though the risk of default has petered out, IMF and donor countries like China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE would keep a close watch on the political developments and economic reforms in the country. China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang, during his visit to Pakistan, expressed concern over Pakistan’s domestic political situation and sagaciously suggested to the Pakistani leadership to rise above their political differences for the sake of economic progress. Ninety days are not enough to change the DNA of the political parties that run amok for power and adopt no-holds barred approach to elbow out others at any cost.
Keeping in view the desire and design of ‘the powers that be’ to tackle political instability and economic debility before the elections take place, it is increasingly unlikely that general elections will be held within this year. The recent announcement by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) indicates the timeline for the new delimitations based on the newly approved census by the Council of Common Interest (CCI). The process of redefining constituencies across the country is set to conclude with notification in December of this year, and the final publication is scheduled for December 14. Axiomatically, the elections would be pushed ahead to Feb 2024.
The real worry of some quarters is that the elections can be delayed beyond Feb 2024. There is a loud whispering, which might crescendo into a loud wailing, that the elections will not be conducted at all for a longer time. Besides other issues, it would create further constitutional complications as the Senate elections are to be held in March 2024. It is not advisable to delay the elections sine die because it will not only undermine the sanctity of the Constitution but create further political unrest in the country. All the mainstream political parties will definitely resent it and might coalesce to raise a voice against it in unison. It would be counter-productive to the ostensibly pristine objective to bring about political and economic stability in the country. A plausible antidote to these foreseeable issues is to announce a definite date for elections.
Author is Editor of The Strategic Brief
