Tariq Lodhi

Introduction: The ongoing Israel-Palestinian conflict, rekindled on October 7, 2023, has witnessed a strategic shift in the tactics employed by Hamas against Israel. This analysis provides a chronological breakdown of events, key tactical developments, and their potential implications on a global scale.
Learnings from 2021 Conflict:
In the May 2021 conflict, a 10-days conflict between Hamas and Israel during 06-21-May-202, Hamas gleaned tactical insights.
Notable events: Dimona Breach and challenges to the Iron Dome Defense System.
• Dimona Breach; explosion of the Syrian SA-5 Surface-to-Air Missile near Dimona on 22-Apr-21 though did not cause any damage on ground, yet it exposed the vulnerability of the Israeli Iron Dome air defence system. Apparently, the missile was aimed at an Israeli Aircraft attacking Syria, but after having missed it, and struck ground near Dimona, about 200-km inside Israel.
• Iron Dome Air Defence: The rockets from Gaza also demonstrated that Hamas is capable of launching multiple rockets simultaneously, confusing and choking the Iron Dome Defence System of Israel. Also, Hamas appears to have significantly improved the precision aiming ability of these rockets. The percentage of the rockets that succeeded in evading the over-burdened Iron-Dome system has increased dramatically, adding to Israeli vulnerability manifold. Israeli media has analyzed that the success of the Hamas missiles is 22%, in situations, where Iron Dome performs with 85-90% efficacy.
Tactical Advancements:
• Dimona Breach exposed the vulnerability of Israel’s defense systems.
• Rockets from Gaza overwhelmed the Iron Dome, showcasing improved precision.
• It was being speculated that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) has stockpiled more than14,000 rockets and mortars, and continue fighting for atleast two months without replenishment.
Current Crisis Unfolds:
• Gaza, Gaza, about 140-Sq Miles Coastal pocket, inhibited by 2.3-million Palestinians, under constant surveillance, becomes the epicenter of the conflict.
Predictive technologies and facial recognition intensify security measures. It is surveilled 24/7 by Israeli drones, Digital / Electronic Surveillance, backed up by Satellite Monitoring. Extensive use of Predictive and Facial-Recognition technologies, besides AI, are also deployed for security and intelligence purposes against Palestinians.
Timed Attack on October 7, 2023:
• Hamas launched a coordinated attack at 03:30 GMT, targeting Tel Aviv and Jerusalem by firing a barrage of missiles and rockets towards Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, which became a clear signal for other Palestinian fighters to move.
• The barrage of missiles overwhelmed the Iron Dome system of Israel air defence mechanism, as numerous missiles and rockets evaded it and struck random targets deeper into Israel.
Rockets and Land Attack
The Simchat Torah ceremonies on Jewish Sabbath morning od 07-Oct-2023, in Israel saw a well-coordinated multiple attack by Hamas members, who simultaneously fired rockets and, in under the rocket and missile barrage, penetrated into Israeli territories and attacked localities, as locals were on way to Synagogues for prayers. Ostensibly, the attack by Hamas was synchronized with the 50Th anniversary of Yom Kippur War of 1973. This surprise attack, caught Israelis unaware, that brought the Entebbe legacy crumbling down.
Breaching the Barriers
Hamas fighters entered the Israeli territories in ground vehicles, and mostly used the six (6) crossing points into Israel from Gaza Strip. First crossing had occurred at 05:50 local time, (before firing of rockets) at the southern-most crossing point of Kerem Shalom. Motorbikes and vehicles were used to cross the road barriers and breaches in the fence, from where they over-ran the check posts on Israeli side. Bulldozers or heavy machinery was used to tear through the wall and fencing at some points. At the Erez Border Crossing, the farthest in North of the Gaza strip, explosives were used to blow away the concrete barriers to make way for the Hamas fighters. The fighters were protected by bullet-proof vests and uniforms, armed with automatic weapons, who surged into Israeli territory. Various types of vehicles, including vans, pick-ups and cars were used in addition to motorcycles for providing operational mobility. According to reports, the militants were well organised, and well trained, who operated in a distinct disciplined manner. (It is possible that these militants were battle hardened in other middle east theatres and were supported with quality intelligence and planning support). The militants attacked from Air, Sea and land as they entered into Israeli territory. Hamas fighters also entered Israel, using Motorized Boats, two of which were repelled by Israel. Using a new tactics, Hamas fighters used Motorized Paragliders to enter via air across the fences in some places. Atleast seven such paragliders were noticed while entering Israel. Hamas sources called it Al-Aqsa Storm Operation.
Hamas claims that more than 5,000 rockets were fired by its Ezziedine al-Qassam Brigades at Israel, while Israeli sources accept only 3,000 entering Israeli airspace. The rockets were fired towards towns and cities along Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
Areas Struck
The Palestinian militants attacked at 27 places inside Israel along the Gaza Strip, including Beeri kibbutz , in Eshkol regional Council comprising of 25-villages, in Negev Desert, Ofakim in Negev desert area, Sderot Police Station, where reportedly 10-Palestinians were killed during gun battle as they occupied the police station, Nahal Oz, Gevim Kibbutz in southern Israel, Netivot, Magen, military facilities at Zikim and Re’im.
Use of Cyber-Tools:
Hamas is carrying cameras, and are streaming clips of the attacks, which is expected to bolster other Palestinians and encourage them to join. This propaganda is expected to stoke sentiments of other hard-liner organisations across the Muslim world and beyond, thus increasing the risk of random attacks against Israeli and its perceived allies, or expansion of the aperture of this conflict into other parts of the world, thus renewing covert warfare. Hamas’s narrative is pivoting on offensive power, and ability to control, which is raising the morale of the Palestinians and their sympathizers, as it keeps people updated on its Telegram Channel.
Early Indications
The only early indication Israel had was intercept of some Iranian spies. Earlier, on or around 27-Sep-2023, Israel had announced that its Shin Bet had captured 3-Palestinians and 2-Israelis, who were, ostensibly spying for Iran, and were reconnoitering and gathering intelligence to attack or abduct high value political targets inside Israel.
Causes:
It is believed that the causes of this violent outburst of accumulated frustration by Palestinians is due to continuous atrocities by Israel on the Palestinian nation. The illegal settlements, forced evictions of Arabs within Israel, persistent state-backed assaults on Palestinian villagers, forceful possession of the Palestinian owned properties. Persistent and brutal abuse of Humar Rights against Palestinians, illegal annexations, disproportionate reactions to protests and offenses, lack of justice, unjustified arrests and detentions, police torture, desecration of Al-Aqsa Mosque, and Israeli efforts towards normalizing its relations with Muslim world under the banner of Abraham Accords, that threatens to completely marginalize, abandon and ignore Palestinians, further led to the outburst.
• Also, the experience of earlier conflict of 2021, in which Hamas had identified the weaknesses in Israel’s armor, and developed synergies with other anti-Israel groups like Hezbollah etc., while gaining access to Missile and Drone technologies, indigenous development of missiles and rockets, and return of battle-hardened Palestinians from Syria and Iraq conflict zones; all of them gave courage to undertake such daredevil operations against Israel. The rising geopolitical groupings also offer Hamas to function as a better proxy of powers to achieve its own personal objectives for Palestinians.
Losses
Palestinian Losses
According to Al-Jazeera, from 2008-to 2023 (before the current violence. 6,407 Palestinians had lost their lives, and 152,560 were reported injured, while 308-israelis were reported killed and 6,307 injured, in the Israel-Palestinian conflict since 2008.
In the ongoing conflict, so far, more than 400- Palestinians are reported killed, including 20-children. More than 1,800 have been injured, while dozens of Palestinians have been reported as captured by Israel.
Like previous conflict situation, retaliatory attacks by Israel have caused widespread damages to civilian and civic structures in Gaza. These include, 14-storey, 100-apartment residential tower, Hamas offices, Indonesian hospital in southern Gaza, Power supply was disconnected, plunging hospitals and rescue work in disarray, home of Hamas Intelligence chief was hit. Earlier, during previous conflict, Israel had disclosed that it has a list of more than 60-Hamas leaders on its hit list. The same, in extended manner is apparently being used now. Mosques were destroyed in Khan Yunis and Jabaliya area of Gaza, alleged Hamas training camps, offices, UN Schools in Gaza that was being used as refuge for the women and children, was also targeted.
Displaced
More than 123,500 Palestinians have been displaced due to destruction of their homes under widespread indiscriminate bombing by Israel, that boasts striking atleast 1,000-targets in Gaza, while acute food shortages, is further accentuating the situation where power is not available, as the fuel shortages are hitting the 2.3 million Palestinians. The hospitals are already facing shortages of medical supplies and hospitals remain vulnerable to ariel attacks. West Bank Palestinians protestors also clashed with IDF, where 5 x Palestinians lost their lives, while 120 were reported injured.
Israeli Losses
More than 700-Israelis have been killed, including 44-Soldiers. 260-bodies of Israelis have been recovered from Negev Desert area, where more than 3,000 Israelis had gathered from nearby to enjoy a music festival or rave. Atleast 15-Israeli casualties were suspected in Ashkelon, when IDF chased a car, said to have been seized from Gaza by Palestinians earlier. More than 1,000 Israelis were reported injured during the conflict.
Israeli Hostage
At least 100 Israelis have been taken hostages, and have been shifted to Gaza, where it is believed that they are being kept in safe places and tunnels, while several are being held hostages inside Israel at Kfar Aza near Gaza. Thes hostages also include 11 x Thai nationals, a Chinese Israeli women, undisclosed number of Israelis from Beeri Kibbutz etc. Earlier reports indicated that the militants had taken hostage of more than 1,200 residents in Eshkol regional Council comprising of 25-villages, in Negev Desert
Several buildings in Ashkelon, Tel Aviv, have been damaged by rockets. Ashkelon was also targeted during the previous Hamas – Israeli conflict. Tel Aviv airport had to be closed for some time.
Causalities of Other Nationals
Several US Citizens have been reported killed in Israel, while twelve (12) Thai nationals have also been reported killed during the conflict.
Israeli Retaliation
Although Israel had been apprehending an attack by Hezbollah or Hamas, since august this year, there was no apparent precise information, nor did it take any precautions. Conversely, Israel continued humiliating and suppressing Palestinians. Clearly, it was caught by surprise, as battle-hardened Hamas had ensured operational security.
Israel considered it as an unprovoked attack, that constitutes an Act of War and declared that it is Israel’s 9/11, where coordinated attacks of spectacular dimensions were made. Israel also threatened Iran of serious consequences. Israel retaliated with retaliatory attacks, under code name Sword of Iron, engaging in gun-battles at atleast 27 locations in Israel. This indicates that the Hamas had managed to seize control at these locations. Israel has deployed tanks in support of IDF, and also deployed tens of thousands of IDF along Gaza strip, while has mobilized more than 110,000 reservists. It is moving its heavy artillery, as its Airforce is pounds Gaza, where it claims to have hit atleast 1,000 targets till now.
Lebanon
Hezbollah of Lebanon, in support of Palestinians, fired large number of Mortar / Artillery Shells and Guided Missiles into 3 areas into Shebaa farms Israel as a solidarity with Hamas along disputed borders with Israel. Hezbollah is believed to have stockpiles of quite accurate missiles, rockets, and drones, ostensibly supplied by Iran, in its arsenal. Hezbollah’s factions, dedicated to Hajj Imad Mughniyeh in the Islamic Resistance had launched the attack from Lebanon on the 3-sites in the disputed territories. Israel reacted with artillery fire on Hezbollah targets inside Lebanon. Launched drone attacks in Har Dov area along Shebaa Farms. This has significantly increased the risk of widening the conflict.
Israel has been eying a larger piece of cake of oil-rich areas disputed with Lebanon, for advancing its pipelines to feed energy to Europe, thus evoking EUs interest in its policies. UN had been trying hard to resolve this issue through al-Naqura Talks, which Hezbollah and Lebanon feel is favoring Israel. In 2018, Lebanon signed an agreement with Cyprus based companies for drilling and exploration of gas and oil fields in its maritime territories in Mediterranean, including an 850-sq km block, that is claimed both by Israel and Lebanon, as overlapped Karish Gas Fields. Lebanon had got the said area demarcated in 2002 while defining its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), (Houssari, 2020). Lebanon had signed an agreement with Cyprus on 17-Jan-2007 demarking the borders of EEZ between both countries and plans to invest in oil, that was subsequently ignored by Cyprus, who surpassed the agreement and made another agreement with Israel, demarcating fresh EEZ boundaries with Israel, that in Lebanon’s view, infringed Lebanon’s EEZ, and deprived it of the 860-km area now disputed. (Houssari, 2020). Ras al-Naqoura is a scenic Lebanese town, located on the coast of Mediterranean, 3-km from the Lebanese-Israeli border. UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is headquartered here. The town has shot in prominence, with the Lebanese-Israel indirect talks taking place here since October-2020. It was result of intensive quiet diplomacy by USA, Lebanon and Israel, under auspices of UN. Placing resolution and demarcation of maritime borders of Lebanon and Israel as the starting point in this journey towards a lasting peace, the talks have been initiated. The first round of talks took place on 14-Oct-20, participated by Israel, USA, UN and Lebanon. The dispute continues to linger-on as Lebanon remains under devastating and crippling financial crisis accentuated by the might Beirut port explosion of 04-aug-2020, but reuses to surrender its claims.
Iranian Narrative:
All western fingers are pointing towards Iran, and alleging that Iran has reiterated that it is backing Hamas’s Al-Aqsa Storm Operation against Israel. Nevertheless, US has not been able to confirm Iranian involvement in this conflict.

             Iran has been facing increased Hybrid-Warfare attacks from Isael, including assassinations, sabotage of its nuclear sites, Cyber-Attacks against its infrastructures, and lately, attacks by MeKo and Kurd militants based in KRG in Iraq.  Iran believes that these groups are Israeli proxies, launched against Iran.
              Iran had been continuously accusing Israel of Clandestine attacks in Iranian territory and abroad against Iranian assets, and had been warning Israel of a befitting response.  
               Iran had recently announced capturing hundreds of infiltrated agents planning to carry out attacks in Iran, while it had managed to work out an agreement with Iraq for disarming the Kurd militants (Peshmerga Armed Forces) and moving or resettling up further away from Iranian border's vicinity.
                 Israel had been regularly attacking alleged IRGC positions in Syria, by launching Air and Missile attacks, and targeting Iranian assets in Iraq in collaboration with USA claimed drone attacks.
                  Iranians fully back Hamas and appreciates their action, and call it self defence right of Palestinians.  Iran has however denied any direct involvement in the conflict.  Iran had earlier, on 03-Oct, cautioned countries seeking to normalize relations with Israel.  Similar views were echoed by Hezbollah.

International Responses:
There has been mixed response as always, with western countries siding with Israel, while Muslim countries and pro-Russia countries making cautious statements, and calling for a permanent solution, respect of Human Rights and need to de-escalate the situation.
While UN condemned deadly attacks in Israel, UNSC will hold consultations, requested by Malta seconded by UAE and Brazil. Its leadership is in contact with major players in the region. The UNWFP: Called for creation of Human corridors to bring in food and humanitarian aid. The Arab League is calling for an emergency meeting to deliberate on the conflict. There are calls for convening OIC meeting to discuss and take action if needed to ease the situation and steer it towards some solution. Egypt, KSA and Jordan are trying to de-escalate the situation, and are communicating with each-other, called for immediate cessation of violence. UAE and Turkey expressed its deep concern over the escalation of violence.
USA, supports Israel and has its back. Announcing new assistance to Israel. It has deployed its Aircraft carrier, Naval Assets, and aircraft to the area, besides releasing additional ammunition to Israel. UK has extended full support to Israel against, what it perceives as terrorism. EU is also backing Israel in this conflict.
Demonstrations in support of Hamas have been organised in several Arab countries. Pakistan is deeply concerned, and has expressed solidarity with Palestinian peoples. Whereas China expressed its deep concern, emphasized on two-state solution, and restraint by all sides.
Russia has called for immediate ceasefire, and to establish a peace process with international community. Russia has alleged that the outbreak of the Palestinian and Israeli conflict is a tactics used by USA to stall or derail peacemaking efforts between USA, Russia, EU and the UN.
India condemned the Palestinian attack on Israel calling it a terrorist attack. It was a clear sign of supporting Israel by standing with it in solidarity, with whom its shares multi-billion defence deals. Both BJP and Congress condemned the attacks by Palestinians on Israel. India’s Adani Ports shares fell by 5% due to concerns for its operations on Haifa Port in Israel. Singapore, Thailand, Nepal, South Korea, and Japan all condemned the attacks n Israel. All of these states have diplomatic relations with Israel.
Pakistan has shown solidarity with Palestinians. However, it maintains that peace should prevail and Israel should recognize the right of self-determination of Palestinians. General public is outrightly in favour of Palestinians as they consider them oppressed Muslim brethren.
Analysis / Comments
• Violence could spread to West Bank and Jerusalem.
• Conflict situation is likely to persist for some time, and Poland has begun to evacuate its citizens from Israel. India has also issued advisory for its citizens in Israel. This is indication of possibilities of escalation of the conflict in coming days, and needs to be kept in view by the analysts.
• Some analysts believe that strategically Iran has seized the initiative from Israel in the ongoing 5GW between them and Iran has successfully unleashed its proxies on one front at the moment, while remaining fronts are kept in reserve. The other potential fronts, with massive presence of Iranian battle-hardened proxies, are, Lebanon and Syria. The conflict carries potential of escalating and widening, as there are risks of fighters entering from Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, which share borders with Israel, cannot be ignored. As Israel mobilizes its artillery and reservists towards Gaza, the probability of Hezbollah opening a major front from Lebanese side cannot be ruled out.
• Considering the infiltration of Palestinians into Israel, and the surviving stockpile of missiles and rockets, it is possible that several cells have already penetrated Inside Israel, who could unleash attacks, including suicide attacks inside Israel.
• With improvement in Arab-Persian relations, and Iran’s firm relationship with Russia vice USA, Iran understands that Israel would not be able to muster international diplomatic support for its highhandedness, and that this may be a turning point in forging more firm international policies in favor of Palestinians and two-state solution.
• Israel is believed to have been using Palestinian territories as testing grounds for its advanced weaponry and surveillance technologies. There have been earlier reports of experimenting with Loitering Ammunition or Autonomous Weapons against Palestinians. Using the test results as testimony, Israeli industry exports them to other countries. With the failure to detect the incursions and attacks, Israeli reputation is likely to be severely degraded.
• MOSSAD has been strutting its brand across the globe, with its regular operations and leaking exaggerated versions thereof. Several newspapers of Israel, particularly engage in projecting MOSSAD, Shin Bet and other Israeli Intelligence outfits across the globe, to build the unformidable images. This strategic marketing, is likely to have some hiccups, due to the intelligence failures observed in this conflict. Former MOSSAD Chief and several others have already blamed the government of a massive intelligence failure.
• As coordinated multiple attacks by militants have caused unprecedented massive casualties, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to face extensive domestic political lash back, and may lose his position in wake of the large number of causalities and humiliation suffered by Israel during his watch.
• While KSA’s overtures towards Israel may face brief pause, it would also allow a better bargaining position for KSA, for future negotiations under changed circumstances. However, suspicions are being sowed that Iran precipitated this crisis to stall normalization efforts between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
• Israel is likely to come under more diplomatic pressures from the Abraham Accord Countries, due to their Arab and Muslim identities.
• The conflict has viciously diverted world’s attention from Ukraine, where some believe that West is losing, and needs to pull out in view of mounting their public disinterest. The rising inflation in the western countries has now started to hurt and could seriously affect the future elections. As winters are setting in, rising fuel prices will add to their woes. Such possibilities could demoralize the Ukrainians for continuing their war effort against Russia, and push Ukraine further deep into the quagmire of Hybrid-Warfare. The situation has already jacked up the oil-prices, which will seriously hurt countries like Pakistan.
• The Hamas success, no matter how brief it may be, and its associated media publicity by Hamas and its sympathizers, is likely to embolden other militant groups across the Middle East and Asia. Renewed recruitment opportunities have emerged for respective militants in these countries. We need to be extra careful here. It appears that this conflict has disturbed the status quo in the region, and may lead to a settlement of the crisis by international efforts and hopes could rise for a Two-State Solution. The Russo-Chinese Block and Arab world may fully support this approach in coming days as the dust settles down.
• The social media will continue to play an important role, for communication, as well as for propaganda, in favour of Palestinians. It seems that they have seized the initiative and media space for the time.
Stop Press
At the time of filing this compilation, (10/9/2023) Israel had failed to evict the Militants from all the areas. Ironically, there were reports of more attackers entering from several other places, yet unidentified by Israel. Reportedly, several militants have entered Magen, indicating failure of IDF to seal the boundaries. Israel has confirmed that there were still seven (7) or eight (8) places inside Israeli territory, where the Palestinians were holding. Several entry points or breaches have, though, been plugged by IDF, there is no report of any recovery of hostages. Reports continue to come in of sporadic firing on volunteers recovering wounded or dead Israelis from the conflict areas, that halted rescue efforts at places. Rockets still continue to be fired from Gaza, despite massive destruction of the infrastructures in Gaza. A massive invasion by Israeli IDF is expected, using maximum military might, as it moves heavy artillery towards Gaza. 2 x Israeli tourists and one Egyptian guide were shot down by Egyptian policeman in Alexandria on 08-Oct-2023. It sends a terse message to Egyptian authorities, who are pressing for de-escalation in consultation with KSA and Jordan.
Conclusion and Ongoing Developments: As the conflict continues, with Israel struggling to regain control, the global community faces a complex situation. The analysis emphasizes the evolving dynamics and potential scenarios as diplomatic efforts intensify, impacting regional stability and beyond. Ongoing developments suggest a protracted conflict with far-reaching consequences for the stability of the region and the world.

Author is former Director General Intelligence Bureau