Saima Khan

Since the 9/11 attacks, Pakistan has played a significant role in the global fight against terrorism, primarily in cooperation with the United States. This involvement has led to an increase in internal terrorism and insurgency, particularly in regions like the Malakand Division, Khyber, and Kurram tribal agencies. Pakistan’s response to these threats has involved extensive military operations, which have profoundly impacted the socio-political and economic landscape of the affected areas.

The rise of terrorism in Pakistan can be partly attributed to government negligence, exemplified by the emergence and influence of the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM). Founded by Maulana Sufi Muhammad in 1989, the TNSM gained support due to the region’s strong religious traditions and dissatisfaction with government policies, demanding Shariah law in response to discontent with existing legal systems. The movement’s persistence and growing influence, particularly post-9/11 under leaders like Sufi Muhammad and Fazlullah, who exploited local grievances and religious fervor to rally support against the government and U.S. interventions, highlight the government’s failure to address underlying issues effectively.

Pakistan at this juncture should increasingly pivot towards intelligence-based counter-terrorism strategies over full-scale military mobilization. Operation Azm-e-Istehkam should mark a critical juncture in Pakistan’s approach to counter-terrorism, emphasizing a shift from conventional military operations to intelligence-led strategies and operations. Informed by past experiences and the evolving security landscape and local dynamics, this initiative should emphasize Pakistan’s resolve to combat terrorism with precision and foresight.

Major Military Operations

1. Operation Enduring Freedom (2001-2002)
   1. Pakistan provided logistical support and intelligence to the U.S. and deployed military units along the Afghan border.
   1. Successfully captured several prominent Al Qaeda leaders but failed to apprehend Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri.
2. Operation Al Mizan (2002-2006)
   1. Conducted several smaller operations, such as Operation Kalosha II in South Waziristan.
   1. Deployed between 70,000 and 80,000 forces in FATA, targeting Pakistani militants harboring foreign fighters.
   1. Resulted in significant military engagement but also led to collateral damage and displacement.
3. Operation Zalzala (2008)
   1. Targeted militants in South Waziristan, led by Baitullah Mehsud.
   1. Cleared several areas but resulted in significant civilian displacement and property destruction.
4. Operation Sher Dil (2008)
   1. Aimed at insurgents in Bajaur Agency, leading to extensive militant casualties and the discovery of tunnel complexes used by militants.
5. Operations Rah-e-Haq, Rah-e-Rast, and Rah-e-Nijat (2007-2010)
   1. Operation Rah-e-Haq (2007-2009): Conducted in phases to clear Swat Valley of militants, with fluctuating success and resulting in temporary peace agreements that were often violated by militants.
   1. Operation Rah-e-Rast (2009): Aimed to reclaim Swat Valley from militants who had infiltrated key areas. Regained control of Mingora and nearby towns after intense fighting.
   1. Operation Rah-e-Nijat (2009): Targeted TTP strongholds in South Waziristan. Involved significant military deployment and support from U.S. intelligence, leading to the disruption of TTP’s command structure.
6. Operation Zarb-e-Azb (2014-2016)
   1. Launched to eliminate militant hideouts in North Waziristan.
   1. Achieved significant success in dismantling militant infrastructure and reclaiming territory.
7. Operation Khyber (2014-2017)
   1. Conducted in four phases (Khyber 1, Khyber 2, Khyber 3, Khyber 4).
   1. Targeted militant groups in the Khyber Agency, leading to the clearing of key areas and restoration of government control.
8. Operation Zarb-e-Ahan (2014)
   1. Focused on eliminating terrorist and dacoits gangs and sanctuaries in the Punjab region.
9. Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad (2017 and ongoing)
   1. Launched to eliminate the residual and latent threat of terrorism across the country.
   1. Focuses on consolidating the gains of earlier operations through intelligence-based actions and targeted efforts.
10. Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar (January 18, 2024)

• Pakistan launched air and artillery strikes in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province.
• The operation, codenamed “Marg Bar Sarmachar” (Death to Insurgents), was in response to Iranian missile strikes in Pakistan’s Baluchistan province the previous day.
• Iran reported nine foreign nationals were killed in the attack, confirmed to include members of the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA).
• This event marked the first known foreign military attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War ended in 1988.
• Operation Azm-e-Istikham (Planning Stage)
  • Planned to further consolidate and stabilize the regions affected by previous operations, ensuring long-term peace and development.

Consequences of Military Operations in Pakistan

• Humanitarian Impact
  • Civilian casualties and widespread displacement were significant.
  • Destruction of infrastructure, especially schools, severely disrupted education.
  • Increased psychological trauma among the population, particularly children, manifesting as symptoms of depression, anxiety, and PTSD.
• Economic Dislocation
  • Operations disrupted local economies, increasing unemployment and poverty.
  • Infrastructure destruction affected essential services such as health and education.
  • Overall economic losses in Pakistan due to these operations were estimated at $45 billion, impacting foreign investment, industrial activity, and inflation.
• Insurgent Manipulation
  • Insurgent groups exploited religious sentiments and low literacy rates to gain support, complicating counter-terrorism efforts.
  • The government’s failure to address underlying issues allowed insurgents to strengthen their influence.

Economic Constraints And Operation Azm-e-Istehkam

Given Pakistan’s current economic conditions, the feasibility of initiating new military operations should be carefully weighed against their potential costs and impacts on the economy. According to Fitch Ratings, Pakistan’s FY25 budget aims to narrow the fiscal deficit, which is projected to be 5.9% of GDP, with a primary surplus of 2.0%. These targets are ambitious and depend on significant tax increases and fiscal efforts. However, the fiscal constraints and economic pressures are likely to challenge the sustainability of these targets. The projected economic growth of 3.6% for FY25, although an improvement from 2.4% in FY24, is still modest and faces risks of being further depressed by tight policy settings.

Military operations are notoriously expensive, encompassing direct costs such as military spending and indirect costs such as displacement, loss of economic activity, and long-term rehabilitation. In the current economic context, these costs could exacerbate Pakistan’s fiscal challenges, leading to higher deficits and debt levels. With the IMF emphasizing fiscal discipline and the need for economic reforms, diverting resources to military operations could undermine these efforts and delay economic recovery. Moreover, the aftermath of military operations often requires substantial investments in rebuilding and development, further straining limited fiscal resources. Additionally, with forecasts predicting a 35% increase in rainfall for the upcoming monsoon season starting in July, the anticipated floods could significantly impact the economy, necessitating substantial funding for recovery and mitigation efforts.

Strategic Recommendations

1. Militant Adaptation

Terrorist groups have shown resilience and adaptability. Continuous intelligence gathering and adaptive strategies will be required to counter evolving threats effectively.

• Comprehensive Strategy

Integrating counterterrorism and military actions with humanitarian aid, development initiatives, and political reconciliation efforts.

• Conflict Resolution and Dialogue

Prioritizing negotiations with local communities, tribal leaders, and other stakeholders to address grievances and seek peaceful solutions where possible.

• Security Sector Reform

Enhancing capabilities in intelligence, counterinsurgency tactics, and community policing to manage security challenges more effectively.

• Humanitarian Preparation

Preparing robust humanitarian and contingency plans to mitigate the potential humanitarian impacts of any military action.

• Economic Considerations

Given the fragile economic outlook, avoid large-scale military operations unless absolutely necessary. Focus on strengthening intelligence and counter-terrorism operations that are less resource-intensive. Prioritize economic reforms and stability to create a more resilient foundation for any future security needs.

Operation Azm-e-Istehkam Specific Strategic Imperatives & Recommendations

1. National vs. Local Strategy

A comprehensive national strategy is more effective than isolated local efforts. Focus on National Action Plan with robust focus on points 6, 7, 8, 12, 16 and 17.

• Implementation: Pakistan must adopt a national perspective on counterterrorism, integrating efforts across all regions to ensure a unified response. This involves strengthening coordination between different branches of the military, police, and intelligence agencies.
• Target Central Command

Focusing on dismantling the leadership and central command of terrorist groups.

• Implementation: Pakistan should prioritize operations targeting the leadership of terrorist organizations, particularly those based in safe sanctuaries. Enhanced intelligence operations and strategic strikes can disrupt the command structure of these groups.
• International Cooperation

Focusing robust international cooperation and generating support

Implementation: The success of Operation Azm-e-Istehkam will hinge on robust international cooperation. This includes securing support for diplomatic backing and technical assistance in counterterrorism efforts. Strengthening alliances with countries that face similar threats will facilitate the sharing of resources and enhance strategic collaboration. It is crucial to prevent militant activities from spilling across borders, especially given safe sanctuaries in Afghanistan and the potential for militant leadership to flee there. Border security measures must be enhanced to curb cross-border movements and ensure comprehensive regional stability.

• Implement Dynamic Operational Planning to Preserve Surprise

Implementation: To maintain the element of surprise in Operation Azm-e-Istehkam, prioritize dynamic operational planning. This approach involves regularly updating operational strategies, shifting tactics, and adjusting timelines based on real-time intelligence and evolving circumstances. By embracing flexibility and adaptability, Pakistani forces can effectively confound militant groups, ensuring that their actions remain unpredictable and maximizing the operational advantage of surprise.

5. Preemptive Action in Vulnerable Areas

 Reinforcing areas where insurgent presence is still weak to prevent their expansion.

• Implementation: Resources and counterterrorism forces should be deployed to areas like the northern regions and around major cities where terrorist influence is currently limited. This preemptive strategy will help prevent insurgent infiltration and expansion.
• Develop a comprehensive understanding of militant logistics, supply routes, and sanctuary locations in Afghanistan to preemptively disrupt their operations.

6. Avoid Concentrated Deployments

Concentrating security forces in a few hotspots allows insurgents to regroup elsewhere.

• Implementation: Pakistan should avoid focusing all military resources in a limited number of areas or provinces. Instead, a balanced deployment across all regions will prevent terrorists from exploiting unguarded areas. Operations should be dynamic and adaptable to insurgent movements.

7. Address Sanctuaries and Cross-Border Challenges

Terrorist sanctuaries across borders provide safe havens for regrouping and planning.

• Implementation: Pakistan needs to enhance border security and work closely with neighboring countries to eliminate cross-border terrorist sanctuaries. Diplomatic efforts should be intensified to ensure regional cooperation in counterterrorism.

8. Integrated and Coherent National Response

A fragmented approach to insurgency fails to address the problem comprehensively.

• Implementation: Pakistan should develop an integrated counterterrorism strategy that encompasses military, political, and socio-economic dimensions. This strategy should involve all stakeholders, including federal and provincial governments, security agencies, and civil society.

9. Socio-Economic Development

 Neglecting socio-economic issues can fuel insurgency by buildering resentment and radicalization.

• Implementation: Alongside military efforts, Pakistan should invest in socio-economic development, particularly in regions affected by terrorism. Education, healthcare, infrastructure, and employment opportunities can help address the root causes of radicalization.

10. Effective Use of Law Enforcement

Strengthening local law enforcement can help maintain long-term stability.

• Implementation: Enhancing the capabilities of local police and other law enforcement agencies is crucial. Training, equipping, and empowering these forces will enable them to effectively counter terrorism at the grassroots level.

11. Public Support and Communication

Winning hearts and minds is crucial for long-term success.

• Implementation: Pakistan should engage in transparent and consistent communication with the public about counterterrorism efforts. Building trust and gaining the support of local communities can aid in intelligence gathering and reduce insurgent influence.
• Emphasize Intelligence-Based Operations

Prioritize intelligence gathering and targeted operations over large-scale military mobilization in Operation Azm-e-Istehkam. This approach preserves the element of surprise, effectively disrupts terrorist networks, and minimizes unintended impacts on civilian populations. By utilizing intelligence to pinpoint terrorist leadership and infrastructure, Pakistan can achieve greater operational efficiency and reduce socio-economic disruptions. Strengthening intelligence capabilities and coordination among security agencies will be pivotal in ensuring the success of this strategy.

Conclusion

Military operations in Pakistan, particularly in the Malakand Division, FATA, and other tribal regions, have been essential for combating insurgency and restoring government control. However, these operations have also led to significant collateral damage and socio-economic challenges. Effective counter-terrorism requires a balanced approach that includes comprehensive planning, integration with broader peacebuilding efforts, and consideration of the humanitarian, political, economic and social dimensions of the affected regions. Sustainable peace and stability in the FATA and PATA regions of Pakistan depend on addressing these multifaceted issues through a coordinated and inclusive strategy.

Operation Azm-e-Istehkam should draw critical lessons from past operations, shifting towards intelligence-based counter-terrorism strategies instead of full-scale military mobilization. Military should man and patrol the border regions. This approach avoids the pitfalls of extensive troop deployments and minimizes unintended impacts on local populations who oppose further military interventions. By prioritizing intelligence gathering and targeted operations, Pakistan can maintain the element of surprise and effectively disrupt terrorist networks while mitigating civilian casualties and socio-economic disruptions. This adaptive strategy not only enhances operational effectiveness but also generates greater public support and regional stability in the long term.

The author is a researcher associated with The Strategic Brief.