Saima Khan

Introduction

In 2023, global terrorism saw a dramatic increase in fatalities, rising by 22% to 8,352 deaths, the highest level since 2017. Despite this surge, the number of incidents fell by 22% to 3,350, indicating a rise in the lethality of attacks. Pakistan, recording 490 attacks, had the highest number of incidents globally. This report analyzes these trends, with a particular focus on Pakistan, examining the causes, impacts, and the broader context within the global terrorism landscape.

Global Terrorism Trends in 2023

Key Statistics and Patterns

1. Increased Fatalities: Terrorism deaths rose by 22% to 8,352 in 2023.
2. Fewer Incidents, Higher Lethality: The total number of attacks decreased by 22% to 3,350. This suggests that attacks are becoming more lethal, with a higher average fatality rate.
3. Concentration of Terrorism: Terrorism is increasingly concentrated in fewer countries, with 41 countries recording deaths, down from 57 in 2015 and 44 in 2022.

Regional Dynamics

• Sub-Saharan Africa: This region, particularly the Central Sahel, has become the new epicenter of terrorism, accounting for nearly 59% of global fatalities. Burkina Faso experienced a significant increase in terrorism, with deaths up by 68% despite a decrease in attacks.
• Middle East and North Africa: Historically the epicenter of terrorism, the region’s influence has waned, with a notable decline in Iraq and Afghanistan.
• South Asia: Pakistan and Afghanistan remain significant hotspots, with Pakistan recording a sharp rise in both attacks and fatalities.

Key Terrorist Group(s)

• Islamic State (IS) and Affiliates: Remain the deadliest groups, though their impact has been declining. Deaths attributed to IS and its affiliates fell by 17% in 2023. These affiliates include ISIS – DRC, ISIS-Mozambique, ISIS in the Greater Sahara, ISIS-West Africa, ISIS-Philippines, ISIS-Bangladesh, ISIS-Libya etc.
• Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-EP)
• Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM)
• al-Qa’ida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
• al-Ashtar Brigades
• Boko Haram
• Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)
• Al Qaeda
• Abdallah Azzam Brigades
• Harakat ul-Jihad-i-Islami/Bangladesh (HUJI-B)
• Indian Mujahedeen (IM)
• Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
• Harakat ul-Jihad-i-Islami (HUJI)
• Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso, SL)
• Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)

Terrorism in Pakistan

Pakistan’s Ranking in the Global Terrorism Index (GTI)

Pakistan’s ranking in the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) spiked in 2023, moving up three places to fourth position, marking its worst ranking since 2016. It happened mainly after the Afghan Taliban government came into power in Afghanistan in August 2021. It has provided shelter to TTP terrorists who launch operations in Pakistan directly or through their activists inside Pakistan. This shift reflects the intensification of terrorism within the country and underscores its status as one of the most affected nations globally.

Rising Incidents and Fatalities

In 2023, Pakistan experienced a significant rise in terrorism, with 490 attacks and 689 deaths, marking a 35% increase in fatalities and a 34% increase in attacks compared to 2022. This surge represents the fourth consecutive year of increasing terrorism deaths in Pakistan.

Regional Impact

The provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were the most affected, accounting for 93% of terrorist attacks and 96% of deaths in Pakistan. These regions have been heavily impacted due to their proximity to Afghanistan, which serves as a safe haven, and the activities of militant groups operating across the border. The proximity to conflict zones and the cross-border influence from Afghanistan have exacerbated Pakistan’s security concerns. The influx of refugees and the activities of militant groups operating along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have posed continuous challenges to national security.

Key Terrorist Groups

• Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP): Surpassed the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) as the deadliest group in Pakistan. TTP was responsible for 42% of terror-related deaths, with 210 attacks resulting in 288 deaths, a 42% increase from the previous year.
• Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA): Continued to capitalize on regional instability, with attacks nearly tripling from 43 in 2022 to 110 in 2023.
• Islamic State (IS): Although not as prominent as TTP or BLA within Pakistan, IS and its affiliates have maintained a significant presence, contributing to the overall instability. IS has been responsible for sporadic high-profile attacks aimed at both civilians and security forces, exacerbating the security situation.
• Lashkar i Jhangvi (LJ): Primarily LJ is a sectarian extremist group which targets shias but has joined hands with TTP.
• Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM): It supports al Qaeda and TTP.

Notable Attacks

The deadliest attack in Pakistan in 2023 occurred in January when a TTP suicide bomber targeted a mosque in Peshawar, killing at least 84 people. This attack, aimed at police officers, highlighted the group’s capability and intent to strike high-security targets.

Contributing Factors to Terrorism in Pakistan

Political and Economic Instability

Political turbulence and economic hardships have created an environment conducive to terrorist activities. The lack of cohesive national strategies and frequent policy changes have emboldened terrorist groups.

Cross-Border Influences

The rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan has significantly impacted Pakistan’s security dynamics. Militant groups operating from Afghanistan have intensified their attacks, particularly along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

Technological Advancements

Terrorist groups have increasingly used technology for recruitment, propaganda, and operations. The use of encrypted communication platforms like WhatsApp and Telegram has facilitated the spread of extremist ideologies and coordinated attacks.

Recommendations

The rise in terrorism in Pakistan in 2023, amidst a global increase in terrorist fatalities, underscores the need for a robust, multifaceted approach to counter-terrorism.

A greater connectivity between the LEAs and intelligence agencies is a must to tackle this hydra of terrorism.

The use of IEDs and booby traps by the terrorists has increased which must be tackled as it has caused considerable loss of precious lives of soldiers.

The Pak-Afghan border must be guarded more effectively to plug the routes of terrorists into Pakistan. Drones and other technology should be used to detect and counter them.

The influence of Afghanistan remains a critical factor, necessitating regional cooperation and comprehensive strategies to ensure lasting peace and security. As terrorism becomes more concentrated and lethal, coordinated international efforts and local resilience-building are essential to counter the evolving threats.

The author is a researcher affiliated with The Strategic Brief. Her areas of interest are security and terrorism.