OSINT SUMMARY – 01-15 Aug 2025

Compiled & Collated by Asif Iqbal

• Xi Jinping’s Daughter Xi Mingze’s Rare Public Appearance: A Subtle Signal to Washington

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s only daughter, Xi Mingze, who has largely remained out of the public eye throughout her life, made a rare public appearance at a high-profile dinner in Beijing in early July 2025. This occurrence, which was caught on camera, is interpreted as a subtle but significant message to the United States. Analysts suggest that her appearance could signal internal political manoeuvring or diplomatic signalling amid ongoing complex China-US relations. It may also hint at preparations for future leadership transitions or shifts within China’s political landscape. This rare visibility of Xi Mingze conveys a quiet but pointed communication to Washington in the context of evolving bilateral dynamics.

• CIA and Ukrainian Forces Maintain Covert Deep Strike Campaign on Russian Territory Amid Trump Administration Era

A jointly operated base by Ukrainian and US forces continues to play a crucial role in Kyiv’s clandestine deep-strike campaign against Russian territory despite the Trump administration’s complex stance. This covert effort involves intelligence and military collaboration aimed at enabling Ukrainian forces to conduct precision strikes deep into Russian border regions such as Kursk Oblast, where Ukrainian troops have made notable incursions in 2024-2025. The CIA’s backing signifies continued American support for Ukraine’s offensive capabilities aimed at weakening Russian military infrastructure and command centres beyond Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders. The operations contribute to sustained pressure on Moscow despite diplomatic uncertainties and the Trump administration’s varying approaches to the conflict.

• Trump-Putin Alaska Summit: Exploratory Talks with No Breakthrough on Ukraine

The highly anticipated Trump-Putin summit took place on August 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf–Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska. The location symbolized Cold War legacies and the geopolitical crossroads between East and West. This was Putin’s first visit to the U.S. since 2015 and the first Russian presidential visit to a Western country since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The meeting marked the first U.S.-hosted Russia-U.S. presidential summit since 2007.

The main agenda was focused on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. President Trump indicated willingness to explore peace prospects but emphasized that Ukraine would have to make concessions, reflecting Moscow’s longstanding demands. The meeting concluded without an agreement, with Trump describing the talks as “productive” but acknowledging “no deal until there’s a deal.” Putin emphasized addressing the war’s root causes as essential for peace and warned against sabotage by Ukraine and its allies. There were initial hopes for a ceasefire or peace framework, but post-summit statements showed no immediate change to hostilities. Trump later shifted from ceasefire advocacy toward promoting a long-term comprehensive peace agreement, aligning more closely with Kremlin positions.

No secret deals were publicly disclosed. The summit allowed Putin to enhance his global stature despite ICC arrest warrants and sanctions. The U.S. military hosting and ceremonial red-carpet treatment underscored the event’s symbolic importance. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was subsequently invited to Washington for talks with Trump to discuss follow-up steps toward ending the war, amid U.S. pressure on Kyiv for concessions.

In essence, the summit was a diplomatic engagement aimed at restarting dialogue but fell short of resolving the conflict, with significant scepticism remaining about near-term peace prospects. The optics favoured Putin’s agenda, while Trump faced strategic challenges balancing U.S. domestic and international pressures.

• Tulsi Gabbard: The Maverick Military Veteran Leading US Intelligence Under Trump

Tulsi Gabbard, appointed by President Donald Trump as the US Director of National Intelligence (DNI) in early 2025, is a unique figure in this prestigious role due to her background as a female combat veteran, former Democratic congresswoman turned Republican, and military officer with deployments to Iraq and Kuwait. She oversees a coalition of 18 intelligence agencies, focusing on national security, depoliticizing intelligence, and refocusing efforts on border security, counterterrorism, and counternarcotics. Her nomination sparked controversy due to her limited previous intelligence experience and allegations of promoting Russian narratives, but she has also received support from various veterans, politicians, and some former intelligence officials who see her as a potential reformer and unifier in the intelligence community. Gabbard has emphasized ending the politicization of intelligence and improving trust within the community while navigating complex international security issues early in her tenure.

Under her direction, the National Intelligence Council was moved physically to the DNI office to increase oversight, while her office took greater control of the President’s Daily Brief, indicating organizational streamlining and consolidation of intelligence products. She took disciplinary actions such as firing two National Intelligence Council officials cited as opposing the Trump administration. Gabbard’s military background bolsters her leadership role; she remains active in the US Army Reserve as a battalion commander. Her appointment is historic for being the first female combat veteran, the first Pacific Islander American, and the first Hindu American to hold this Cabinet-level intelligence position.

• Former Intelligence Officials Organize ‘The Steady State’ to Counter Trump’s National Security Approach

A group of intelligence veterans from the CIA and other U.S. agencies, known as The Steady State, has emerged as a vocal opposition to the Trump administration’s national security policies. The collective, composed of former intelligence officials, intends to increase its visibility and leverage its growing membership and resources to counter what they see as destabilizing tendencies in Trump’s approach to intelligence and security. The Steady State include veterans from top U.S. government agencies such as the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defence, Department of Homeland Security, and the uniformed military. While specific names are not officially listed for privacy and security reasons, the group’s open letters and public communications mention former FBI agents like Brian Driscoll, Michael Feinberg, and Walter Giardina as part of the broader opposition to politicization under the Trump administration. The group also includes experienced professionals who have held leadership roles in counterterrorism, nuclear non-proliferation, treaty negotiations, and intelligence analysis across multiple administrations and political affiliations.

Former intelligence personnel fear that Trump’s potential second term could politicize U.S. intelligence agencies, with risks of using spy services against domestic opponents and undermining long-standing democratic norms. The Steady State advocates for safeguarding intelligence community integrity, resisting politicization, and maintaining operational independence from partisan influence.

This development highlights a rare and organized public dissent from former intelligence officials seeking to influence the domestic political debate on national security policies in the run-up to the 2025 election cycle. The Steady State’s activities mark a significant new phase of engagement by former intelligence personnel to shape public discourse and policy against the Trump administration’s national security agenda.

• AI-Driven Military Innovations: Recent Breakthroughs and Strategic Implications
• The U.S. military has further expanded its deployment of AI-powered intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems, notably its flagship Project Maven, which leverages AI to rapidly analyse drone and satellite imagery for target identification. During exercises in early August 2025, this system dramatically reduced targeting timelines from hours to minutes, enhancing battlefield situational awareness and decision-making speed. The U.S. Army’s AI-enabled Maven Smart System demonstrated its ability to achieve targeting results comparable to earlier large command centres but with significantly fewer personnel, reflecting the power of AI-assisted intelligence fusion.
• Additionally, the U.S. Air Force made significant strides in AI-driven flight operations, including autonomous piloting of fighter jets in simulated dogfights, paving the way for future “loyal wingman” drones that operate alongside manned aircraft with semi-autonomy.
• Advances in AI command, control, and decision support systems (C2), collectively known as Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2), are increasingly allowing commanders to fuse data from numerous sensors and sources, accelerating decision cycles and improving response quality.

These developments suggest a clear trend toward AI being deeply integrated into all aspects of military operations – from intelligence gathering and real-time threat detection to autonomous platforms and advanced decision support – pointing to a future battlefield environment fundamentally transformed by artificial intelligence. These AI innovations, are expected to create significant strategic and operational ripples across global military affairs in the coming years.

• Mossad-DGSE: Covert Strategic Collaboration Amid Iran, Gaza, and Baku Crises

France’s President Emmanuel Macron remains at the forefront of diplomatic engagement, recently reaffirming France’s intention to recognize the State of Palestine at the United Nations in September 2025. This move – forged amid criticism from Israel following Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack – signals Paris’s push for a two-state solution and regional stability.

Amid the fallout from the Israeli-Iranian war and intensifying regional crises, intelligence cooperation between Israel’s Mossad and France’s DGSE (external intelligence) has continued actively on issues vital to both countries, including Iran, Gaza, and activities in Baku. Operational collaboration between the Mossad and DGSE reportedly focuses on countering Iranian influence and monitoring Iranian-linked activity, especially using Azerbaijan (Baku) as an intelligence hub to surveil Iran and navigate evolving security conditions tied to Gaza. In this sensitive climate, secret talks involving Israeli and Syrian officials in Baku highlight Azerbaijan’s rise as a discreet platform for regional negotiations and intelligence coordination. Both French and Israeli interests, including information-sharing, are reported to intersect here.

The Israeli-Iranian conflict has accelerated joint intelligence efforts, as France seeks to defend both its national and broader European interests. Paris positions itself both as an intelligence partner to Israel and a proponent of Middle Eastern stability, engaging in cautious but persistent cooperation with Mossad despite public divergences over Palestinian statehood.

This period demonstrates how France’s diplomatic ambitions and Mossad-DGSE covert actions intertwine in response to heightened instability across Iran, Gaza, and the Caucasus region.

• France’s Two-State Policy After Knesset’s Occupation Vote

France has reaffirmed its commitment to the two-state solution, even after Israel’s security cabinet and Knesset announced plans to occupy Gaza. French officials specifically stated on 12 August 2025, that Gaza’s future must be part of a Palestinian state led by the Palestinian Authority, and that France is “firmly opposed to any plans involving the occupation of the Gaza Strip and the forced displacement of its population”. France considers the two-state solution the only way to guarantee lasting peace, and calls for a permanent ceasefire and international stabilization mission that would include Gaza as part of a future Palestinian state.

Changing Regional Dynamics if Israel Occupies Gaza

• Humanitarian Impact: Occupation plans entail forced displacement of potentially up to 1,000,000 Gazans, risking famine, further civilian casualties, and crimes against humanity. The humanitarian crisis will deepen, and NGOs/ICJ warn of possible war crimes.
• International Isolation: Israel faces growing international and Arab criticism. Key countries, especially Egypt and Jordan, have repeatedly rejected any forced displacement of Palestinians. This could strain Israel’s relations with its Arab neighbours, and make normalization efforts – such as with Saudi Arabia – even harder.
• Rise of Resistance and Instability: A military occupation will likely entrench violent resistance from Palestinian groups, fragment the Palestinian cause further, and risk endless conflict – a “forever war” scenario.
• Diplomatic Responses: International actors, led by France, Saudi Arabia, and other European countries, will intensify calls and possibly actions toward recognition of a Palestinian state, diplomatic isolation of Israel, and active attempts to deploy stabilizing forces or missions in the region.
• No Clear Post-Occupation Plan: Israel has stated it does not want to govern Gaza but hasn’t presented a credible alternative, increasing uncertainty about future governance, security, and civil administration in the Strip.
• Threats Further Regional Escalation: Occupation could spark wider regional instability—not only in Gaza, but also Lebanon, Syria, and beyond—if Palestinians are forced to flee or regional actors perceive a threat to their own security.

France’s position on Palestinian statehood and the two-state solution is unlikely to shift due to Israeli occupation of Gaza – in fact, Paris may push harder for international recognition and diplomatic pressure. The regional environment is set to become significantly more unstable, with humanitarian, diplomatic, and security risks multiplying.

• Terror-Related Incidents and Intelligence Operations in Northeast India
• Arrests of ULFA-I and NSCN-KYA Militants:

Assam Police, with Assam Rifles and Army, arrested 22 militants from United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) and National Socialist Council of Nagalim-Khaplang Yung Aung (NSCN-KYA) across various districts of Assam in early August 2025. These arrests targeted cadres involved in militant planning and extortion operations ahead of India’s Independence Day celebrations on August 15.

Nine additional linkmen, facilitators between militant groups and local populations, had been apprehended recently, disrupting recruitment and logistical support networks. This crackdown was part of coordinated security efforts to prevent attacks on Independence Day.

• Joint Operations and Key Arrests:

On or around August 12, security forces intensified patrolling and raids particularly in Upper Assam and border areas with Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh. These operations culminated in multiple arrests including an important United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) operative involved in intra-group communication and planning.

Detailed surveillance and intelligence inputs helped seize weapons caches and identify militant hideouts, significantly disrupting ULFA-I’s and National Socialist Council of Nagalim – Khaplang Yung Aung’s (NSCN-KYA) operational capabilities during the sensitive Independence Day period.

• Call for Boycott and Threats of Violence by Separatist Groups:

ULFA and NSCN factions issued a public call for a boycott of Independence Day celebrations in Assam and the wider Northeast region. These calls underscored separatist rejection of Indian sovereignty and underscored the potential for violent disruptions on August 15.

• Intelligence Sharing and Combined Security Framework:

The arrests and security measures resulted from close coordination between India’s Intelligence Bureau (IB), R&AW, Assam Police, Assam Rifles, and the Indian Army. Intelligence gathering involved HUMINT sources, electronic surveillance, and analysis of militant communication. This comprehensive approach enhanced detection and prevention of militant activity during the volatile Independence Day period.

These developments illustrate a heightened state of alert and proactive counterterrorism efforts by Indian agencies in Northeast India to neutralize insurgent threats during a politically sensitive time, reflecting intelligence-driven security operations focused on mitigating risks posed by armed separatist groups.

• Debate Over Rafale’s SPECTRA Electronic Warfare Effectiveness Amid Pakistan’s Chinese EW Claims

Chinese-made electronic warfare (EW) systems in Pakistan are being touted for their effectiveness against Indian Air Force (IAF) aircraft, including the French Dassault Rafale and Mirage 2000 jets, which reportedly suffered losses during strikes in Pakistan on the night of 6-7 May 2025. Pakistan’s aggressive narrative questions the robustness of the Rafale’s SPECTRA system, the key French EW suite designed to protect the fighter against radar, missile, and laser threats. However, experts note that SPECTRA is among the most advanced EW systems globally, offering multi-spectral threat detection, automated countermeasures, comprehensive data fusion, and has proven combat effectiveness in multiple theatres. Its jammers are frequency agile and can counter a range of radar threats with high precision, and it enhances the Rafale’s survivability significantly by automating defences and reducing pilot workload. Critics, including some French lawmakers, have raised concerns after the May incidents, suggesting the need for upgrades to maintain superiority against evolving Chinese and Pakistani electronic threats.

Importantly, the effectiveness of SPECTRA depends on having up-to-date electronic intelligence on enemy radars and missiles; if adversary systems improve or if intelligence is incomplete, performance may degrade. The question of whether Chinese EW systems are “beating” the Rafale’s SPECTRA remains debated – with Pakistan’s narrative possibly overstating their success – while French defence sources maintain confidence in the SPECTRA’s advanced capabilities, though acknowledging the evolving challenge of Chinese-made EW technologies in the region.

• Poland Eyes Pakistan’s Defence Industry to Bolster Ukraine’s Air Defence

Poland remains keenly interested in Pakistan’s defence exports, especially as Warsaw steps up support for Kyiv. In early August 2025, Warsaw has shown particular interest in Pakistan’s air defence systems and military supplies, aiming to strengthen Ukraine’s defensive capabilities against Russia.

Islamabad has become an important hub for military-technical cooperation among Ukraine’s allies. Recent reporting suggests Poland is engaged in new acquisitions from the Pakistani defence industry, including potential deals for man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS) and ammunition. Shipments from Pakistan have been routed to Ukraine via Poland’s Gdansk Port, facilitated by Pakistani and Polish intermediaries. Previous contracts covered a wide array of military hardware, and Pakistan has played a significant role – directly or through third parties – in supplying Ukraine with artillery rockets, projectiles, and now, potentially, air defence assets. These transfers come as part of Poland’s broader strategy to reinforce Ukraine’s capabilities and, by extension, Europe’s collective security, with Poland also intensifying military training for Ukrainian soldiers as part of the EU’s unified response.

Overall, Islamabad’s defence industry is emerging as a significant component in Poland’s – and the broader pro-Kyiv coalition’s – strategy to supply Ukraine with urgently needed military equipment, especially air defence systems.

• Lithuanian Miniature Surveillance Specialist Expands Global Footprint from Vietnam to Turkey

Lithuanian firm Commesh UAB, specializing in miniature surveillance technologies, has seen growing demand from intelligence agencies and security services internationally. The company’s compact and advanced surveillance solutions are gaining traction in diverse markets, notably in Vietnam and Turkey, reflecting the strategic importance of discreet intelligence gathering. Commesh’s technology is well-suited for modern intelligence operations requiring stealth, portability, and intricate integration.

This trend illustrates Lithuania’s emergence as a competitive player in the global security technology sector, supplying niche yet high-demand equipment to allied states and allied intelligence communities. The success of Commesh UAB underscores a broader shift towards sourcing sophisticated intelligence tools from smaller, technologically advanced companies in less traditional markets.

Corporate Intelligence

• ASEAN Countries Leverage US Lobbyists Ahead of Trump Tariff Negotiations to Secure Relief

Several ASEAN countries, including Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Philippines, have actively sought to gain leverage in tariff negotiations with the Trump administration by engaging US lobbying firms. This move is part of their preparation for intergovernmental talks aimed at reducing the steep US tariffs imposed by President Trump earlier in 2025, which initially reached rates as high as 49% for some countries and sectors. The lobbying efforts coincide with these countries securing tariff reductions ahead of or around the August 1 deadline, achieving cut rates generally between 19% and 20%, down from much higher initial proposals. These negotiations involved a mix of economic concessions, regulatory reforms, and bilateral purchases, such as Boeing aircraft deals, intended to improve access to the US market while managing the risk of trade diversion restrictions targeting Chinese transshipment. The collective effort by ASEAN nations to use lobbying and negotiations reflects their urgent economic need to mitigate the impact of aggressive US trade policies on their export-driven economies.

• Chinese Influence and Interference in Western Europe: Strategic Challenges and Economic Leverage 

Chinese influence in Western Europe continues to grow through a complex mix of economic investments, political engagement, and strategic interference, creating significant challenges for European unity and security. Beijing’s support for Russia in the Ukraine conflict and reluctance to condemn the invasion have strained its relations with the EU and raised suspicions about its geopolitical intentions in Europe.

Economic influence is particularly notable in critical sectors such as rare earth exports, green technologies, pharmaceuticals, and electric vehicles, where China remains a crucial supplier and investor, creating dependencies that worry European policymakers. Despite diplomatic overtures and promises of cooperation, European governments, including Germany, France, and countries in Central and Eastern Europe, remain wary of China’s industrial policies, trade imbalances, and attempts to exploit European market fragmentation. China’s strategy also involves targeted political influence campaigns, lobbying, and investments designed to cultivate favourable environments in receptive countries like Hungary, while facing resistance elsewhere due to concerns tied to security and market fairness.

The European Union has implemented measures to “de-risk” its economic exposure to China, including tighter investment screenings, imposed tariffs, and initiatives to protect sensitive technologies. The ongoing EU-China summit dialogues underscore the delicate balancing act Europe faces in navigating strategic autonomy, economic interests, and security imperatives vis-à-vis Chinese influence. This evolving dynamic reflects China’s intent to solidify its foothold in Western Europe, while European nations grapple with safeguarding their political cohesion and economic sovereignty amid expanding strategic competition.

• Pakistan’s Military-Led Lobbying Offensive in Washington Targets Defence, Rare Earths, and Financial Intelligence

Pakistan has launched an extensive, well-coordinated lobbying offensive in Washington D.C. to reshape its relationship with the Trump administration in 2025. This effort is spearheaded by the Pakistani military, which has taken control of communication channels to the US government. Islamabad has engaged at least 13 top-tier US lobbying firms, spending millions of dollars to open doors to key decision-makers including Trump’s closest insiders. These lobbying firms are active across several domains: defence cooperation, rare earths and critical minerals investment, financial intelligence sharing, economic partnerships, and geopolitical matters such as counterterrorism and the Kashmir dispute.

The campaign aims to counterbalance India’s influence in Washington and reposition Pakistan as a vital US partner on its own merits. It includes outreach to the White House, National Security Council, and Capitol Hill, with lobbying efforts to restore US military financing and promote Pakistan’s economic potential, especially in mineral resources and technology sectors. Notably, firms led by Trump’s former bodyguard Keith Schiller and others with Trump administration ties play significant roles, leveraging personal connections to influence policy. This all-out lobbying surge reflects Islamabad’s strategic gamble to leverage Trump’s transactional style and tilt US policy in Pakistan’s favour amid broader global power shifts.

• Dubai Money Laundering Trial Uncovers Nexus of Western Financiers and Lawyers in UAE Litigation Sector

Kele Contracting is a construction company established in the United Arab Emirates in 2005. It was formed as a joint venture between the Australian firm Kele International Holdings and the UAE-based company ENSHAA. The company specializes in construction management, contracting, value engineering, interior fit-out, and design-and-build projects. It has been involved in various significant infrastructure projects in the UAE and the Gulf region, including the construction and redevelopment of well-known sites such as the Deira City Centre mall in Dubai. Kele Contracting employs thousands of people from diverse nationalities and operates primarily in the GCC and MENA regions, maintaining a strong presence in large-scale residential, commercial, and infrastructure construction sectors.

Kele Contracting, a now-defunct company involved notably in the construction of the Deira City Centre mall in Dubai, is central to a major money laundering and fraud investigation by Dubai prosecutors. More than a dozen individuals and entities have been accused, including lawyers, Gulf law firms, and Patrick Moloney, CEO of UK-listed dispute funder Litigation Capital Management. The case underscores a complex nexus of Western financiers, legal professionals, and local Gulf companies linked to these financial crimes. Specific detailed names of all alleged individuals beyond those publicly mentioned have not been fully disclosed, but the investigation targets a wide network implicated in illicit financial flows connected to Kele Contracting’s operations and related activities in the UAE litigation and business sectors.

The Dubai criminal court is hearing evidence against more than a dozen individuals and entities, including lawyers, Gulf-based law firms, and Patrick Moloney, CEO of London-listed Litigation Capital Management, a dispute funding firm. The case reveals an intricate nexus linking Western financiers, legal professionals, and local Gulf law firms within the UAE’s litigation and business sectors under scrutiny for alleged financial crimes.

This case highlights ongoing challenges in the UAE to curb complex money laundering schemes involving regional and international actors, and underscores the prosecutorial push to tighten anti-money laundering enforcement in Dubai’s financial and legal environments.

• India’s Approach After Trump’s Imposition of Tariffs and Assessment of Its Foreign Policy

In early August 2025, the Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on a wide range of Indian imports, up from the previous 25%, primarily targeting India’s continued purchases of Russian crude oil. This move was aimed at cutting Russia’s oil revenues to pressure a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict. India became the most heavily taxed trading partner of the U.S. in Asia following this action. The tariffs pose a severe threat to Indian exports, particularly in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, which could lose competitiveness in the U.S. market. Nearly all of India’s $86.5 billion in annual exports to the U.S. – its largest export destination – could become economically unviable, risking a sharp slowdown in Indian economic growth. India has signalled its intent to safeguard national interests without escalating tensions. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government stressed that imports are driven by market realities and energy security concerns. Diplomatic efforts are underway to engage with the U.S. to negotiate a balanced trade deal before the tariffs take full effect on August 27.

Analysts critique India’s foreign policy for failing to balance its relationships effectively. New Delhi’s strategic autonomy and multi-alignment approach have led to strained ties with the U.S., while India maintains its long-standing partnerships with Russia and China. The tariff imposition exposed India’s vulnerability in its trade diplomacy and highlighted a lack of leverage in critical negotiations with the U.S. The tariffs have pushed India closer to Russia and China, with Modi strengthening ties with Moscow and Beijing amid growing U.S.-India tensions. This realignment challenges the anticipated U.S.-India partnership in the Indo-Pacific region and questions India’s balancing act between competing global powers.

The tariff imposition has spurred calls in India for boycotting American goods and intensified criticism of Modi’s foreign policy approach. Opposition leaders argue that Modi’s administration mishandled relations with Washington, causing harm to India’s economic interests. Negotiations continue with the U.S. aiming for a trade agreement that would ease tensions, but major disagreements remain on sensitive sectors like dairy and agriculture. India’s capacity to manage this diplomatic crisis while maintaining economic growth is viewed as a critical test of its foreign policy effectiveness.

• Fahad Toonsi: The Strategic Economic Architect Behind Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030

Fahad Toonsi is a key economic adviser and the strategic right-hand man behind Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030. Serving as an adviser to the Royal Court since 2018, Toonsi holds the role of secretary-general of the Strategic Management Office and the boards of directors for major Vision 2030 megaprojects such as Neom, AMAALA, Qiddiya, and the Red Sea Project. His expertise in financial economics, corporate governance, and international business management has positioned him centrally in overseeing and coordinating the implementation of Vision 2030’s ambitious economic reforms and mega-developments. Toonsi is also involved in governance roles connected to the Royal Commission for AlUla and Makkah City’s Holy Sites, reflecting his broader engagement in strategic economic and cultural transformation initiatives under the Crown Prince’s leadership. His discreet but powerful influence is instrumental in aligning diverse mega-projects and reforms to reshape Saudi Arabia’s economy and reduce its oil dependence.

• From Riyadh to Paris: The Business Networks Shaping Saudi Arabia’s Next Deputy Crown Prince

The candidates vying to become Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s deputy crown prince each have extensive and diversified business interests spanning from Riyadh to Paris. Their business networks are notable because the deputy crown prince role is not only political but also offers significant economic influence within the kingdom’s evolving leadership structure. This new generation of Saudi royals blends political authority with entrepreneurial ventures, aligning with the kingdom’s Vision 2030 reform goals that emphasize economic diversification and modernization. The choice of deputy crown prince will likely favour those with strong loyalty to MBS and substantial business footholds, reinforcing control over both the political succession and economic sectors.

This dynamic reflects a strategic fusion of royal governance and global business, highlighting the importance of economic power in the future of Saudi Arabia’s ruling clan amid ongoing efforts to consolidate MBS’s authority and adapt to regional and global economic challenges. Following notable figures have historically been discussed or are relevant in the context of the royal family’s succession dynamics:

• Prince Khalid bin Salman (Defence Minister and younger brother of MBS) is often mentioned given his close ties to MBS and significant military and political roles.
• Prince Mohammed bin Nayef was formerly crown prince and deputy crown prince but has been sidelined since MBS’s rise.
• Prince Turki bin Faisal, former intelligence chief and ambassador, though older and less likely as a deputy crown prince due to MBS’s preference for younger, less senior rivals.
• Prince Mitab bin Abdullah, former National Guard Minister, has also been discussed but less likely at this point.
• Other younger princes with active business involvements and loyalty to MBS are considered more probable candidates, though their names are less publicly prominent.

The deputy crown prince role has been vacant since MBS became crown prince in 2017, and the choice is expected to focus on someone docile and loyal with substantial business and political footholds rather than senior experienced royals seen as potential rivals.

• Control Risks’ Edited Reports and Legal Shielding of Mikhael Mirilashvili’s Ownership in MaxBet

Controversy has emerged around the intelligence consultancy Control Risks and law firm Weil, Gotshal & Manges concerning their involvement in obscuring Mikhael Mirilashvili’s ownership of Romanian gambling company MaxBet. MaxBet was acquired in 2021 by Novalpina, a former shareholder in NSO Group, raising concerns about hidden ownership ties to Mirilashvili, a prominent billionaire with diverse global business interests. Accusations suggest that Weil, Gotshal & Manges played a key role in helping conceal Mirilashvili’s stake in MaxBet, with Control Risks allegedly editing or influencing reports to reduce public scrutiny of these connections.

This case highlights complex intersections of corporate intelligence, legal manoeuvring, and ownership opacity in high-profile international business acquisitions linked to technology and surveillance sectors. The matter also raises questions about transparency and the ethical responsibilities of intelligence consultancies and law firms in representing clients with potentially sensitive geopolitical implications.

This episode underscores the challenges in corporate intelligence surrounding ownership disclosure and influence operations in sectors with significant strategic and political exposure.