17 Oct 2023

Tariq Lodhi

Casualties continue to rise at an alarming rate in Gaza due to indiscriminate unannounced aerial attacks by Israel on civilian population.  By early morning of 15-Oct-2023, another three hundred Palestinians were reported victims of bombing.  This raises the number of killed Palestinians to at least 2,200. Meanwhile USA has confirmed that its 29-citizens have been killed, while whereabouts of sixteen remains unknown. 

AFP has issued a list of 28-countries whose 124-citizens have been reported killed during Hamas’s attack of 7-Oct-2023 in Israel, while there are unknown number of citizens from 6-countrie reported to be missing or being taken hostage.

Hostages: 

As Israel continued to attack civilian population in Gaza justifying them to be Hamas militants, reports have emerged that the Israeli IDF has found tell-tale remains of several hostages during their local ground incursion / raids operations in Gaza since 14-Oct-2023. Hamas has confirmed that nine (09) hostages, including four foreigners have died because of Israel’s ground incursions, but did not provide any further details. Earlier, Hamas had announced that thirteen (13) hostages had died due to the air strikes.  Thus, the total hostages who lost their lives in captivity, according to Hamas has risen to 22.  While most media sources agree to a figure of 120 hostages, Israeli media insists that the number is 150-200, in a bid to increase the stakes and enhance bargaining position against Hamas.  It is also being reported that among the hostages, there are 13-children and persons over 60-yrs age.

Israeli sources also confirmed that in some of localised ground raids across the Iron Wall, on 13-Oct-2023, IDF has recovered bodies of some hostages and recovered some articles that belonged to some hostages, though, later IDF denied any such recovery.  No further details have been shared with the media, though it is believed that the families of the deceased have been informed. In addition to garnering intelligence about the whereabouts of hostages, and any leads thereof, Israel is also trying to neutralize known anti-tank launching positions in Gaza.  Using specialists in tunnel warfare, IDF is also trying to map or identify underground caches for arms and ammunition.

The pro-Israeli media is keeping the news at a lowkey, ostensibly, due to ethical reasons, but based on Hamas’s reports, it is believed that spreading of such information could be damaging for IDF and in interest of safety of the hostages, may require a more halting indiscriminate bombing and sporadic ground incursions in Gaza.  Such media publicity would most certainly exert pressures on international community to hasten efforts for a cease-fire.  Domestic pressures for a cease fire are likely to rise in pro-Israel states, since their citizens are also at risk of getting harmed, should the bombings and incursions continue.  So far there have been no claims from either side about deliberate harm to the hostages, which strengthens the belief that some sanity remains amongst the warring factions.

Since there are several foreign nationals among the hostages, it has automatically made those countries as stake holders in the resolution of the issue, and those countries would be pressuring Israel not to take any rash action that could endanger their safety. Concurrently, there is rising domestic pressure inside Israel to keep the safety of the hostages paramount.  The news of some hostages getting killed is likely to further add to the anxiety of Israeli public and garner more pressure.  

Cyber

The conflict has entered the phase of Cyber-Warfare, and Information-Warfare, where narratives are being built.  The Pro-Israel media in a highly coordinated manner is highlighting Israel as the victim, and adding justification to all its brutal or violative actions.  It has been observed that pro-Israel media suppressing news articles that could create a negative image of narrative.

BBC Clip: Graphic summary of how Hamas co-ordinated its attack can be found here:  https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle-east-67096316

The social media has been accordingly managed by pro-Israeli states and those corporates who own these apps, with main patrons being persuaded to reduce anti-Israel contents, while at the same time, it is being flooded by pro-Israel propaganda, highlighting the virality of IDF, its high morale, and the gory scenes of the Hamas attack, plight of hostages, promotion of political manipulation by the government of Israel, etc.  In face of worldwide demonstrations in support of Palestinians (not-Hamas), the pro-Israeli lobbies are trying to turn the tide of the public mood, and garner larger governmental support of its allies.

A battle of nerves is going on at the moment, where Israel is under tremendous international pressure to pull back from the brink of an all-out offensive, while UN is calling current plight of Palestinians in Gaza as being in a Hell-Hole.  Nevertheless, while Israel is still under the impression that the international community, (read leaders, not public) is prepared to tolerate all Israeli actions, atrocities, HR Violations, even if they constitute war crimes.  Israel also seems to be under the impression that in case the things slip out of Israeli hands, its allies will step-in and enforce a ceasefire, bailing out Israel once more.

War Drums: 

In a routine expression of solidarity with Israel, PENTAGON, on 14-Oct-2023, has seconded Israeli PM’s accusation that Hamas was akin to ISIS in atrocities.  USA’s USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, carrying eight (8) squadrons of attack and support aircraft, including F-15s, a Guided Missile Cruiser, Guided Missile Destroyers, has arrived in the Eastern Mediterranean. USA has also ordered its USS Eisenhower Aircraft Carrier to reach Eastern mediterranean to augment the other aircraft-carrier.  USA claims that these assets have been positioned in support of Israel and to deter any actions against it.  USA’s F-15 are now in middle eastern airspace, prepared to intervene on Israel’s behalf, when so needed.

Lebanese military has confirmed that the Reuter’s photographer journalist was killed by Israeli rocket, launched by IDF. IDF has also said that it was very sorry for the death, though it tried to justify its attack on Lebanon.  Israel, meanwhile announced that it has killed several militants, who were attempting to cross into Israel from Lebanon.  Israel claims that it used air-craft to take out these militants, while it also used its armed drones in the operation.

The several incidents of violence by IDF and Hezbollah, do not constitute opening of a new front, though a risky brinkmanship in violence can be witnessed here.  However, Hamas has reiterated its resolve to continue its coordination and cooperation with like-minded groups in the region. However, Iranian FM visited Lebanon on 14-Oct-2023 and claimed that USA was giving chance to Israel to annihilate Palestine, which could exacerbate the issue.  He warned that everything was possible if Israel did not cease its atrocities.  With this statement and the visit, Hezbollah seems prepared to jump into the proxy war being fought in not-so-gray-zone.

War Crime: 

Hamas has reiterated its allegation that Israel has been using White Phosphorous bombs against Palestinians and Lebanese Hezbollah.  Human Rights Watch, has also stated that it has monitored use of 155-mm white phosphorous projectiles being fired by Israeli artillery against targets in Lebanon on 10-Oct-2023, and in Gaza on 11-Oct-2023.  It may be noted that use of white phosphorous projectiles is not banned as chemical weapon, and can be used to illuminate or create smoke-screens by militaries.  However, under Protocol-III, of Convention on the Prohibition of Use of Certain Conventional Weapons, use of phosphorous weapons against military targets located in civilian environment is prohibited.

Ground Offensive

Israel has claimed that in it has succeeded in killing two more Hamas leaders, that include Ali Qadi, and Murad Abu Murad.  Ostensibly, Israel is succeeding in targeting only those Hamas leaders, who have been in its captivity in the past.  It gives rise to speculation that high quality of Photo-Matching or Photo-Identification functions of Facial Recognition, is being used in conjunction with AI to match and kill from pictures obtained through drones.

Israel is continuing to mount pressures and amassing of war resources along Gaza Strip.  IDF, and likely Sayeret Matkal (Israeli version of SEALS or elite commando force), is also positioned and conducting random incursions, for collection of UpToDate intelligence, capturing Palestinians for interrogations to get clues about hostages etc., and to weaken war potential and communication capabilities of the Palestinians. Though it seems an impossible task for the Sayeret Matkal to rescue such a large number of hostages scattered in a large area.  Any rise in number of dead during such an operation, could definitely bring down Israeli government and create internal chaos inside Israel.  Israel will be quite obstinate for any prisoner swap, but ultimately, it will have to arrive at a reasonable agreement.

Some analysts believe that Israel will be facing booby-trapped IEDS, anti-tank mines, snipers, ambushes and innovative forms of attacks, in case it moves into Gaza, through coordinated ground attack of larger incursions. 

There is a slight shift in Israels earlier intention on conducting a Ground Offensive.  It now says that it will conduct a Comprehensive Offensive, including attacks from ground, air and sea.  On the contrary, US military experts concede that it is extremely difficult for Israel to conduct Ground Offensive in next days or two, since necessary combat preparations could require several weeks, if not months.  This seems to be somewhat realistic assessment of the situation.  It would be prudent to think that it may take a few more days for Israel to be fully prepared to launch the offensive.  In the meantime, Israel will continue its sabre-clattering and making belligerent noises, to pacify its public and to heighten the stakes in region.  Most likely, it will continue token attacks, until UN orders some sort of cease fire, and negotiations are brokered for release of hostages.  The ruling party has been frantically engaged in damage-control, and to disperse responsibility for intelligence failure, and the widely criticised delay in IDFs responses, it has set up a unity government to offset wholesome responsibility on Israeli PM.  However, it is now more likely, that the Israeli PM would be blamed and eased out by his colleagues from the opposition, since the opposition will not allow him to take any credit of resolving the crisis, to any extent, whatsoever.  Already protests by Israeli public are erupting and focusing on Israeli Ministry of Defence in Tel Aviv, pressing for more information of hostages and its early resolution. The protestors are accusing that the political government, for its own narrow political objectives, had deployed extra IDF troops towards West bank on cost of Israelis settled along Gaza strip.

Humanitarian Aid & Evacuation: 

Humanitarian aid by several countries has begun to arrive in Egypt’s for despatch to Gaza in coordination with Red Crescent. Turkish planes carrying Humanitarian Aid have also landed in Egypt, while UK is speeding up humanitarian support for Palestinians through UN Refugee Program. USA has also announced increasing its Aid to UN Relief and Works Association. 

Israel has again struck onto Syrian airport of Aleppo, which is believed to be also a joint Military airport, suspected to be the landing and dispersal platform for arms and ammunition for Hamas from IRGC. This was a second attack, rendering the airport temporarily out of use. The attack was launched from Mediterranean Sea direction, in west of Latakia, (it has been a site of earlier attack on several oil-tankers providing crude oil to local refinery).  According to earlier reports, American Naval aircraft Carriers and other associated war assets are positioned in the vicinity, and F-15 flights have been seen operating in the region.

Responding to Israeli ultimatum, thousands of women, children, old people have taken to the road, that has been earmarked by Israel for leaving North Gaza.  These IDPs are faced with monumental difficulties of damaged roads, scarcity of fuel and vehicles, and risks of air-attacks.  Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh has announced resolve of the Palestinian people to remain in Gaza and not to migrate to Egypt at any cost.

There are calls for giving more time for evacuation, if at all is to be imposed, adherence to rules of war, and to avoid any actions that could escalate the conflict or engulf West bank as well.  UN has repeated that the Israeli plan to evacuate Northern Gaza is utterly impracticable. WHO has also condemned the evacuation orders by Israel and has termed the evacuation order for seriously ill persons as Death Sentence by Israel.  Qatar and Saudi Arabia have categorically rejected Israel’s orders for evacuation of North of Gaza and called for lifting of the blockade imposed by Israel, while demanded of allowing transport of relief goods to the Palestinians.

On 14-Oct-2023, Israel agreed to halt aerial attacks on pre-agreed routes from where the foreigners stuck in Gaza could leave via Rafah Crossing.  Egypt has claimed that the Rafah Crossing is open from Egypt’s side, but there is no traffic from Gaza, due to heavy bombing.  There seems to be consensus emerging to allow foreigners in Gaza to leave from Rafah, but US sources say that Hamas is not allowing the opening of the crossing at the moment.  On the other-hand, it has transpired that Israel has ordered the crossing to remain closed, unless it is coordinated with it.  This essentially means that any uncoordinated crossing could be subject to arial bombing.  Medical supplies from WHO have arrived and are awaiting clearance to cross into Gaza.  Egypt has strengthened its crossing and is reluctant to accept any influx of Palestinians from Gaza.

BBC has verified an earlier Hamas claim of Israeli Aircraft targeting women and children, who were evacuating North Gaza, and were on the prescribed route.  At least 12 persons, mostly women and children, were killed in the air attack.  To counter the damaging effect of this barbaric strike on women and children, IDF has announced that Palestinian civilians in Gaza are not our enemies and we do not target them as such.  Nevertheless, this attack has further eroded Israel’s international reputation and tends to diminish international support, since it has confirmed use of disproportionate and indiscriminate force against civilians.

Negotiations?

Russia has called for a vote at UNSC on Monday, 16-Oct-2023, for a cease fire in the Israel-Hamas conflict. The draft resolution has already been in circulation since the fighting broke-out. Russia has also simultaneously, condemned violence against Civilians and all acts of terrorism, without naming Hamas.

In a USA and Chinese conversation, China has called for convening an International Peace Meeting, and binging an end to Collective Punishment and use of Indiscriminate Force, clearly a reference to the Israeli air-bombing and blockade.  China did not specifically condemn Hamas for its violence.  Chinese FM called the conflict as Historical Injustice and stressed on the need for Independent Palestinian state.

USA has increased its interaction with UN, Egypt, Jordan, and Israel, to evolve mechanism to beginning humanitarian supplies from Egypt to Gaza at the earliest.  USA is also trying to contain the conflict and using discreet channels to persuade Israel to diminish the level of violence. Some observers believe that this could only be a strategy to allow space to Israel to capture as many cards as possible it can, to have betted bargaining position at negotiation table.

As and when negotiations commence, under any credible multi-state body, foremost will be a call for cease fire, initially for 24-hours, to allow evacuation, and upon holding the same, it will be extended to go-in for negotiations for release or swap of hostages.  Several suggestions or models are in circulation for this, such as release of some 36-women and children in exchange of same number of Palestinian women and children held in Israeli Jails.  Already, there are reports circulating about release of a female and two children-hostages by Hamas.  Absence of widespread coverage indicates back-channel negotiations in progress, where these persons have been released to offer a proof of life, as well as to allow Israel to be sure that the other hostages are alive.  However, as always, it will be incremental, and there will be some violations of cease fire, adding to the suspense and tensions of the stakeholders. 

Continuous risk will remain of some ultra factions or rogue elements, who may try to derail the negotiations, and attempt to raise their nuisance value, or to get a recognition in efforts for settlement of Palestinian issue.  As and when negotiations begin, question of rebuilding Gaza and compensations of kind, would also be an important item on the table.  Israel on the other hand will demand more tighter controls to prevent Dual Purpose Goods to be moved to Gaza and call for a 2-km Buffer Zone to be imposed along the fence inside Gaza, where orders to Shoot-on-Sight would be carried out.  Already, efforts are also in hand to create a Safe Zone inside Gaza for the civilians, and to chalk out a Humanitarian Aid Corridor. Wider negotiations could include an agreement in principle, and a timetable for allowing creation of an independent Palestine, for more durable peace.

Author is former Director General Intelligence Bureau