21 Oct 2023
Tariq Lodhi
Conflict:
Casualties and Destruction
Gaza: The number of Palestinians killed due to indiscriminate air bombing by Israel has risen to 3,478, with about 25-percen children, while more than 12, 065 are reported to be injured. Significant Hamas members who have been killed include Fouad Abu Btihan, Muhammad Alwadia and Akram Hijaz on 17-Oct-2023. Hundreds of people are reported trapped under collapsed buildings, where Palestinian volunteers are trying to rescue with limited equipment, and at times with bare hands. Several hundreds of persons are missing and believed to be buried under the rubble after the bombing on civilian targets. If and when recovered, the number of dead will spiral unprecedently. Reports were coming in of Israeli bombing and destruction of the oldest church in Gaza, The Greek Orthodox Church of Saint Porphyrius. Curiously, it was earlier (on or about 13-Oct-2023), also reported to have been hit, and western press went to all extents to prove that it was a fake news. Though the Arab media has highlighted this attack, the western or pro-Israel media has downplayed the incident. The well substantiated report of 20-Oct-2023, the church and statements of its Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem, the attack has been condemned.
Acute shortages of water, painkillers and food have set-in at Gaza, beginning from hospitals. Thousands of Palestinians are forced to sleep shelter less on streets, after their houses were destroyed in the Israeli bombing. Fuel for generators powering hospitals is running out and may be completely dry soon. Food stocks are also running low, with shortages of food visible at several locations.
West Bank: According to reports, Israel has captured more than 700-Palestinians from West Bank, who were workers stranded there. Already, 69-Palestinians have been killed while 1,300 have been reported injured in west bank. Curiously, International media is quiet on this escalation in West bank. It is obvious, that Israel, after having limited success in Gaza, is now improving its bargaining position, and has arrested Gazan workers from West Bank.
Others: At least 14-UN workers have also fallen victim to indiscriminate Israeli bombing and artillery fires. According to Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has claimed that 21-Journalists have been killed while preforming their duties in the conflict zone. At least 17-Palestinian, three Israelis, and one Lebanese are among those killed. Eight were reported injured, while three remain missing or detained. In a latest development, a journalist team of seven was fired upon by Israel, along al-Abad, at town of Hula, along Lebanese border. One journalist was killed while other were injured.
Israel: Media placed number of Israelis killed as 1,403, and 3,800 injured. According to media reports, at least 55-Israeli police officials have been killed since the beginning of the conflict. Heads if Israeli Intelligence service, Shin Bet, and Military Intelligence have admitted Intelligence failure, and accepted responsibility, while called upon the people and IDF to now focus on in winning the war.
Tactical
Hamas has continued its sporadic rocket attacks, evoking sirens, and alerts in Israel, which is adding to public anxiety and fears. Nearly all visits of foreign dignitaries have been punctuated with alert sirens, which are adding to the optics and adequate war-like background settings, emphasising that Israeli friends are risking being in Israel in expression of solidarity. However, the intermittent rocket launches and ensuing sirens, are un-nerving the Israelis, who are fearing that the fabled Iron Dome may not be sufficient for their protection. They may be finding it difficult to digest that they must pay heftily for the massive intelligence failure and lack of political preparedness against any such attack.
American naval assets have positioned in Mediterranean Sea, at least five (5) C-17 USAF aircraft have delivered weapons load to Israel for use against Palestinians, in the last few days. The US 26Th marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) has arrived in Israeli waters, ahead of US President’s visit to Israel of 18-Oct-2023. USA President has asked Congress to approve about $10-Billion defence aid to Israel, and also is said to have allowed shipment of a huge quantity of 155-mm artillery shells for Israel to be used against Palestine.
Israeli defence Forces are conducting intensive Electronic Counter Measures (ECM), to block GPS signals, so that they could blind any Drones, rockets, or missiles. It is however not known if these jamming are also affecting the Russian or Chinese GPS systems and their respective receivers in the area. Israel is continuing to beef up its security elements along Gaza as more re-enforcements are continuing from staging area of Sderot. Several more troops have assembled along Gaza fence at Krar Aza area, for a possible attack.
Israeli media has revealed that though several reservists are returning to Israel from abroad, yet a large number of Israelis, along with families are exiting to Cyprus and other destinations to avoid military service and escape any attack. It seems that the elite is the one which is not prepared to risk their lives and apprehend that the conflict may expand in near future.
Displacements and Deportation
Hundreds and thousands of Palestinians have since, reported to have vacated Nort Gaza under appalling conditions and remain shelter less. Israeli sources claim that at least 600,000 people have been displaced as they migrated from North to South Gaza. According to Israeli estimates, only a few hundred thousand remain there. It seems that Israel is trying to exaggerate the numbers, so that it can absolve itself from bombing or attacking populated areas, in contravention to all charters.
Israel says that more than half a million Israelis have been displaced due to clearing possible conflict zones around Gaza, and Nort Israel along Lebanese borders.
The Israeli threats forcing about a million Palestinians to move towards South Gaza, according to Egypt, constitutes a national security threat for Egypt. Egypt conceded that it is being advised to allow these Palestinians and to resettle them in Sinai, until they are allowed to return in Gaza. With previous such examples in abundance, including those of Afghan refugees in Pakistan, Hamas and PLO refugees in Lebanon, and Jordan, Egypt has flatly refused such a proposal. It says that it does not support any forcible displacement of Palestinians nor their resettlement in Sinai. It had offered that it could allow exit of Dual National Gazans via Rafah Crossing, which Egypt says has been severely damaged by Israeli bombing and needs major repairs and says that the dual nationals will be only allowed if Humanitarian aid is allowed to be sent into Gaza. Egypt has earmarked El-Arish Airport in Sinai for collecting arriving relief goods, while has opened offices in all its provinces (Governates) for collection of donations and relief goods. Despite USA’s consent, Israel has refused forming any safe zones and opening of Rafah Crossing for Humanitarian supplies to enter Gaza. Egypt meantime is also strengthening and securing its borders by reinforcing security barriers to prevent any gate crashing. There are reports that on insistence of USA president, some limited Humanitarian supplies may be allowed to enter Gaza from Egypt, under Israeli vigil and monitoring.
After Egypt’s refusal to accept any deported Palestinians, the next possible place to deport the Palestinians (Hamas) has been suggested by some quarters to be Jordan. However, Jordan is also not willing to accept ant deported Palestinians. We understand that what deportation means here is moving out Hamas and its staunch sympathisers and their families, just like 400-Hamas members who were deported from occupied territories in 1992, to Lebanon. Egypt has retorted to the suggestions of deportation, that Israel may do so and deport Hamas to Negev Desert.
KSA has rejected any deportation of Palestinians from Gaza. It has also accused Israel of repetitive and systematic provocations against holy sites, and continued the occupation of Palestine, which have provoked the conflict. KSA recalled that it had recently donated $1.2 billion to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East for development of Palestine. This was in addition to the $27 million it had donated last year. Besides, KSA is financing development projects of $109 million for infrastructure projects, electricity, sanitation, communication, and road construction. It is ironical, that in the current conflict, Israel is destroying the Saudi investments.
Hostages:
Turkey claimed that it is engaged in talks with Hamas leadership for release of Hostages. However, no breakthrough has been reported. In his Oval Office address to Americans, USA President has asked for about $10-billion of more finances to foot the war bills for Israel and Ukraine, made no mention of Palestinians sufferings, acknowledged rise in Islamophobic incidents and its trends in America, re-assured Israel of USA’s support, and promised to bring back the hostages safe and sound. Apparently, his address is expected to breed more criticism, than appreciation, except from its staunch allies. His attempt to equate Ukraine and Israel has evoked instant criticism, as both are not deemed to be similar in any manner; Ukraine is ostensible occupied, while Israel is the occupier, in their own places. He also expressed his fear of the conflict spilling over in the region. Overall, it seems that he was preparing USA for a prolonged conflict situation in Middle East, specifically in and around Israel, where USA could be sucked in. On the contrary, media believes that the USA public is exhausted from funding foreign wars. At the same time, 35-US senators have called for grant of sustained access to deliver Humanitarian aid to Gazans.
Israel has claimed that there are at least 199 hostages held by Hamas in Gaza. Hamas, on the other hand claimed that it holds 250-hostages in Gaza, and that it is prepared to release the foreigners, as and when the situation is conducive. Hamas made it clear that these hostages will be used to swap about 6,000 Palestinians held in Israeli jails. It means that Hamas is now ready to talk on hostage release, and to draw respective countries into discreet negotiations. Besides, with this demand of release, it has galvanised all families of the aggrieved or detainees along with major segments of Palestinians. This would weaken a combined Israeli stand on the issue. France is intensely engaged in talks to broker freedom for the hostages. He revealed that discreet talks were progressing.
Hamas has released a video of a 21-year-old Mia (Maya) Schem, speaking in Hebrew, apparently under medical treatment, ostensibly for a wound on her arm. Mia belongs to Shoham, and is a dual national, holding additional nationality of France. She was captured from the Supernova desert rave on 07-Oct-2023. According to media sources, the family of the hostage had agreed that their pictures could be aired on TV. Israeli has dubbed it as a Psychological Terrorism by Hamas.
Dual Nationals:
Following the announcement of allowing relief goods to enter Gaza, with effect from 20-Oct-2023, there has been no mention of allowing dual nationals to cross into Egypt from Gaza. Meanwhile, Egypt has hinted that it will negotiate with respective countries for allowing its dual nationals to enter Egypt for further repatriation. It is believed that there are at least 500-600 American dual nationals stranded inside Gaza.
Hospital Explosion at Gaza:
An explosion (18:30 local as per-Arab media, 19:30 as per Israeli media, and 19:00 as per BBC) at Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital, also known as Al-Ahil Arab Anglican Hospital, in Gaza is said to have killed at least 471-Palestinians. Pro-Israel media places the casualties to 200-Palestinians. The hospital was established in 1882 and is managed by the Anglican Church and is in Zeitoun area of Gaza. Being supported by Church, it is very symbolic Christian landmark, which speaks of religious harmony and tolerance. It gathers more significance, in an environmental, where divisive opponents of Islamic world, are embarking on anti-Islam and Islamophobic narratives. Shortly before the explosion, Israel has issued a warning to residents of the area to evacuate, as Israel was going to bomb the area. Only a few days earlier, Israel had fired at least two warning shots at the hospital. Separately, Kuwaiti hospital in Rafah City in Gaza was also asked to vacate the area, but they had not complied with.
The Arab media, based on Hamas’s claims believes that the explosion was caused by a direct hit from Israeli Airborne Ammunition. This incident comes after Israel had been claiming that it will conduct comprehensive ground attack, and may also use similar surprise techniques as Hamas, to pay back in same coins. Hamas announced Day of Mourning, while Hezbollah has announced Day of Rage in condemnation of the attack on the hospital in Gaza.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) also dismissed Israeli allegations that the explosion occurred due to a failed rocket, which were being fired from the vicinity of the hospital. PIJ argues that the angle of attack, and the intensity is sufficient evidence that the attack came from air. PIJ also pointed towards the contradictory statements from Israel where it says that the explosion was caused during launching, and then contradicts, that it was a failed launch, or a misfired rocket.
Iranian sources have blamed USA for contemplating the Al-Ahil Baptist Hospital, on 18-Oct-2023, that killed about five hundred persons. According to its sources, this attack was engineered to pacify Israeli public, and also to pressurise Israel into avoiding a Comprehensive Ground Attack. The sources further allege that Israel used Bunker Buster missiles to hit the said hospital. It is believed that this allegation will find space in social media propagation by pro-Palestine groups and influencers. Unfortunately, explosions of this magnitude tend to disturb the status quo swiftly. We have seen the explosion at Beirut Port on 04-August-2020, that sapped Lebanon completely.
While Russia called on Israel to provide Satellite pictures of the incident to prove that it was not an air-strike, Israeli military ran a few seconds clip, a satellite picture grab, of the site, post-incident, and argued that there was no crater nor any sign of aerial attack.
USA President, who arrived at Tel Aviv on morning of 18-Oct-2023, said that the explosion was handiwork of the other team, not you, but some people are not sure. He revealed that his assessment is based on the data provided to him by USA’s Defence Department. These remarks, on hand appear to absolve Israel of its bombing, while on the other, does not categorically, endorse Israels assertion that it happened due to Hamas’s misfire of a missile. He however commended Israel for its bravery and courage, while reiterated that Hamas does not represent all Palestinians, and that they all need to be united to defeat Hamas.
These appear to be a very well-crafted statement, which diplomatically tries to isolate Hamas and prefer PA’s PLO, while taking a jibe at Iran and its axis of resistance. USA president’s statement is unlikely to draw any serious criticism from Arab world or be hostile in complete tandem with Israel.
It was expected that USA President’s visit would culminate in brokering an incremental peace deal, beginning opening of the Rafah Crossing for evacuation of foreigners, evolving safe air corridors for air drop of relief goods, evolving safe zones for travel and refuge, and setting stage for hostage negotiations. However, all hopes were dashed, when in wake of the hospital bombing, both, Jordan, and Egypt declined to that the USA President.
Pro-Israel and Israeli media are blaming Hamas for the explosion and claim that it occurred due to a misfired missile by PIJ, that fell on the hospital. No credible or convincing evidence has been provided by either side, which could establish the actual cause of the perpetrator of the explosion. Instead, the subject is being confused by irrelevant additions and details. They further insisted that there are no craters at the incident site, which could establish impact by an aerial ammunition.
Israel has hinted at a different form of attack on Hamas, other than the expected Comprehensive Ground Attack. It seems that due to immense pressure, presence of hostages in operational or target area, and expectation of a high degree of collateral damage in form of unarmed Palestinian civilians, it is reviewing its plans to attack. It is already pounding northern Gaza with its artillery.
The issue of bombing of this hospital, has been hijacked by those who have diverted attention from the main issue of the attacks on Palestinians. There are inconsistencies in claims by both parties, while it is our assessment that the truth lies somewhere in between.
Since Israel has to save its face, justify that it has taken extreme actions to satisfy its disappointed Israeli countrymen, it may resort to a naval assault, from the coasts in North, where it has already bombarded by naval artillery on the refugee camps. It may also resort to air-borne or Heli-borne assaults under cover of fighter jets. Israel is already using armed drones for the attacks and RPV ground vehicles for sniffing our tunnels and underground arsenals in Gaza.
The hospital explosion has the potential to turn the course of the conflict, as the shooting down of Iran Air’s flight 655, with its 290-passengers on board, while it took off from Tehran for Dubai on 03-Jul-1988. The aircraft was hit by two SM-2MR surface-to-air missiles shot from US Navy vessel Vincennes. This incident became the turning point in the war and a milestone, wherefrom de-escalation can be found.
Israeli media is referring to some communication intercepts, in which Hamas knew that the explosion was caused by a rocket fired by Islamic Jihad. Furthermore, Israel argues that no structural damage or a crater could be seen at the incident site, which proves that it was not a strike from air. Israel alleges that Hamas immediately mobilized world media by exaggerating the number of causalities and placing the blame on Israel. Israeli claims became less plausible, when Israeli PM’s aides X (former Twitter) post announced “Israeli Air Force struck a Hamas terrorist base inside a hospital in Gaza,” which was quickly removed, and later, at 22:58, the aide clarified that it was based on a false report by Reuters, which had alleged that Israel was responsible for the explosion. He also triggered another controversy, by stating in the same post that “As the [Israeli army] does not bomb hospitals, I assumed Israel was targeting one of the Hamas bases in Gaza,” In response, WHO’s report was widely posted, in which it was reported that Israel had already conducted more than 51-attacks (media says there were 115-attacks, and 20-hospitals have been targeted) on health care facilities in Gaza, while 15-Helath care volunteers were killed, and 27-injured as a result of these air bombings. Besides, Israel had issued to at least 22-hospitals, where at least 2,000 patients were under treatment, to vacate the premises, as they were to be attacked by Israel.
By 21:04 hours, IDF published an edited post, placing the blame on PIJ and alleging that one of its missiles had misfired and struck the hospital. It based its evaluation on analysis of the rockets barrage, which traversed through the vicinity of the ill-fated hospital. The original post had carried a video clip, which IDF claimed to have been evidence to its claims. This video-clip was quickly disputed by New York Times, who alleged that that it was an inaccurate video, which was clearly captured some 40-minutes after the incident. It appears that the timings of the Explosion are being fudged by some pro-Israel media, ostensibly to fit in the plausible justifications being forwarded by Israel.
With the waning Israeli credibility, which has been seriously dented when it tried to deny any role of IDF in the shooting of Al-Jazeera lady journalist in May-2022. It was only after many investigations, that Israel, incrementally admitted that she was shot by one of IDF soldiers. Even at that time, online propaganda was beamed against her, and was accusing Palestinians of her murder. Contradictions were also found in the statement when Israel claimed that the alleges rockets were fired from the adjacent cemetery, but on ground there was none.
Irrespective of the claims by Israel, or Hamas, the actual cause of the explosion though not verified by facts by a third party, at least for the time being, has set the tide of propaganda, a competition of online-narratives, and scramble for global disinformation, both for and against Palestine reaches a crescendo, somewhat obscuring the actual conflict and miseries of the Palestinians. Whole cyber-space is now being occupied with such non-issues, which tend to disperse world’s attention from the monumental tidal wave of humanitarian crisis developing in Gaza in particular and occupied territories in general.
Possibility of the explosion at the hospital in Gaza, being engineered to create a justifiable plausibility to halt any attempts to cut-short the conflict, and reduce Israeli control of the battle-front, cannot be ruled out.
Humanitarian Supplies:
Hundreds of Humanitarian Aid trucks continue to line up and hold on Egyptian side of the Rafah Crossing, awaiting permission to cross. Meanwhile, EU intends to send Humanitarian Aid evolving a Humanitarian Air Corridor, by flying in aid to Egypt, and forward it to Palestine once the border crossing is so opened. It is expected that following US President’s visit to Israel, the aid will be allowed into Gaza on 20-Oct-2023 for southern Gaza, while modalities and protocols as well as timings etc remain to be announced.
Narratives and Propaganda:
The Arab media also speaks of a Coordination Framework in Iraq, which has disclosed, that for now, Iranian and its proxies, will exhaust the possibilities of media warfare before undertaking actual tactical attacks of any sort. This signal marks the shift of strategies into clear 5GW domain and could further escalate hostilities in Cyber-Space.
Intense debate is occupying the cyber space, where the western media is conducting analysis, to rule out claims by Palestinians and allegations of Israel being the perpetrator of the attack on the hospital. Figures, evidence, etc., are being disputed, and tactfully, highlighting Israeli claims. On the other hand, Arab media is trying to defend the position of Palestinians and trying to put forward, arguments and highlight inconsistencies of Israeli claims.
It is being alleged by pro-Israel media that the weapons used by Hamas were from North Korea. It seems that the earlier term of Axis of Evil (Iran, Iraq, and North Korea), is being revived to garner support of western like-minded nations.
South Korean media has alleged that Hamas is in link with North Korea, and through Iran, it has received the weapons it has been using against Israel. There has been no verified version of this story, but it is expected that pro-Israel propagandists will try to exploit this unverified news to further confuse the situation.
Israel is hinting that it does not intend to occupy Gaza, as it will not be able to manage such a large number of populations, however, this is being seen as a part of the propaganda campaign.
Fake Apps have emerged in Israel, which carry malware embedded in them, as more and more Israelis are relying on such Missile or Rocket Attack warning apps. The Red Alert Rocket Alerts app has found widespread users in Israel, but it is reported that it carries a spyware in its background. The android version is more infected as compared to the apple version.
Escalation:
There is increasing consensus amongst analysts, that the conflict is going to spill into the region. Following USA Presidents admission of fears that the conflict could spill over in the region, EU Presidency has also shared similar views. Jordan has also forecasted about rise in violence levels.
Unverified media reports, mostly from outlets usually opposed to Iran, are claiming that in recent developments, though not unexpected, so-called Iranian proxies in Iraq, have set-up a Joint Resistance Control Room / Joint Operations Room in Beirut, of the resistance factions from Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, to monitor and direct its tactical resources to respond. Arab media is hinting that Iranian officers have facilitated establishment of this control room.
Several leaders of these groups, including Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada, Badr, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, have already arrived in Lebanon and Syria, with their fighters (though number not specified), initially to conduct reconnaissance. Frequent visits of Quds Force have also been frequenting Lebanon in these days. These proxies claim that Israel has delayed its Comprehensive Ground Attack apprehending collaborative and coordinated retaliation by these proxies from other fronts.
IRGC has resounded earlier warning by Iranian FM, that if Israel continues its atrocities against Palestinians in Gaza, the Resistance Front could retaliate by another stunning attack on Israel. It appears that Iran is alluding towards possible escalation by Hezbollah from Lebanese side. He further warned that continued atrocities will prompt other groups across the world to join with the Resistance Front and engage in armed struggle against Israel.
As the world gets divided in pro and anti-groups on issue of the conflict, tensions have risen in the region, and may explode in wider conflict. Already there are fighters from several nationalities engaged in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Lebanon, who have acquired adequate battle experiences, and as Israel becomes a new 5GW theatre, such groups could be attracted towards it. This would tremendously suit Iran and its allies and make Israel more introvert. No wonder that the Arab world in particular, and the world in general, is also cognizant of this probability.
Sporadic incidents of armed hostilities continue between Hezbollah and IDF along Lebanese border. Provocations have significantly increased from both sides, which some believe are of deterrent nature, and aimed to contain the level of violence. On Wednesday (18-Oct-2023), Guided Anti-Tank Missiles, were fired by Hezbollah, targeting tanks at Rosh Hanikara, in Tzuhorim in Israel. In retaliation, IAF attacked Hezbollah positions in Lebanon along its borders. Hezbollah is estimated to have stockpiled at least 130,000 rockets and missiles. Hamas announced that it had launched at least 30-rockets from Lebanon towards Israel on 19-Oct-2023.
Israel claims that it killed four persons along Israel-Lebanon borders on 17-Oct-2023. Israel has evacuated habitants of 28-villages also along Israel Lebanon border and has announced to enforce a 2-km wide Buffer Zone. Israeli military has reported that there was shooting incident in Metula, which is within the military zone. Israel says that an anti-tank rocket was fired from Lebanon in Metula area, on 17-Oct-2023. Hezbollah has claimed that it fired Guided Missiles towards Israeli tanks in Hanita, in North Israel. Earlier, 17-Oct-2023, Hezbollah had struck an Israeli tent with soldiers inside, at Ramim Settlement abeam Markaba towards South Lebanon. In retaliation, Israel bombed Lebanese towns of Remish and Yaron. Observers believe that neither side is adhering to the established rules of engagement, and it is free-for-all, and a tit-for-tat situation, though, still in lower thresholds, where it could not be declared of a conflict or opening of new front. This shows that both sides are very calculative, while Hezbollah is more content, at the time, to keep Israeli forces pinned down in the area, and dividing their resources. The Lebanese government is desperately trying to avoid any conflict, though Hezbollah is continuing its sabre-clattering, threatening peace on both sides of Lebanese borders.
Israel termed the several incidents to be below the level of escalation, though it has struck several Hezbollah targets in Lebanon through air Raids. Israel has confirmed that 4-soldiers and one civilian were wounded on 18-Oct-20-23, by an incoming Anti-Tank fire in Northern Israel, along Lebanon. Further reports indicate that there were civilian casualties in the Lebanese villages of Maroun El-Ras and Al-Dahaira, due to Israeli bombing.
Lebanese Caretaker PM has stated that Lebanese people support Palestinians, and Lebanon is in discreet talks with several countries, including UN, to avoid war erupting between Israel and Lebanon. He admitted that Hezbollah will however have the final say in any finalization of these discreet negotiations. Lebanon has demanded that Israel should stop provocations at Israel-Lebanon borders. Lebanon believes that Israel is pouring oil on fire in the area.
Arab media views that any escalation would be in form of unconventional warfare, or in other words, a low-intensity or Hybrid-War. While USA has warned expansion of the conflict could engulf Lebanon as well. Hezbollah has announced that it will not succumb to any regional or international persuasions to avoid spread of conflict or non-interference in support of Palestinians and raised the risk of outbreak of conflict in this area as-well. This increase in threat, has prompted several countries to issue travel advisories and ask their citizens to leave Lebanon at their earliest. These countries include USA and KSA.
As the conflict situation enters its 14th day, the world media is now widely describing the conflict as War, and is mentioning it as Hamas – Israel war, which in a way elevates the position of Hamas to a recognized entity, like a state actor. It also increases the level of engagement in the area. Ironically, friends and foes, alike, will not be too saddened, if Israel gets embroiled in introvert Hybrid Warfare in its own territory and becomes more dependent upon its allies.
Proliferation
Risk of tactical proliferation has increased manifold Some unconfirmed media reports are propagating that as EU and other countries provided aid to Gaza, for development of their water and sewage resources, which, Hamas and PIJ have diverted or uprooted the steel pipes to modify them into missile casings to be used against Israel.
It is being observed that as the crisis stretches at immense humanitarian costs, Israel is gradually slipping into more deep Hybrid Warfare. While Israel has long-standing experience in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency, so do the Palestinians. With strong and dependable allies who have several common interests, and proxies at hand, chances of escalation of 5GW, and Hybrid Warfare globally have increased, wherein the local Israel-Hamas conflict will simply act like a booster.
With rise in levels of violence, more lethal weapons are likely to be inducted by the resistance against Israel. With recently demonstrated innovative use of cyber technologies, wider use of RPVs is likely. Guided systems have been used in recent days, and substantial number of more accurate and developed armament awaits its consumption in the battle fronts.
Some of the previous models of responding to such crisis, by Israel and its traditional allies, included the eviction of PLO from Palestine by pushing it into Lebanon, and from there forcing it to move to Tunis and Cyprus in August-1982, under an arbitration by USA, as French and American troops took position in Beirut, to disengage Israeli military. For achieving such ends, Israels awaited Comprehensive Ground Attack seems more likely. Considering Israels intention to have a post-ground attack Gaza, with curtailed territories, that would be left to the international community and Israel’s political forces to decide upon; the Bulwark of the Comprehensive Ground Attack, is more likely to be an assault from the coastal side of Gaza, from where Israeli forces supported by heliborne troops, under umbrella of armed drones and bombers, could allow them to completely landlock Gaza. Such a control will allow future freedom to Israel to exploit the East Med Pipeline project in collaboration with West Bank government, and simultaneously drive further wedge among Hamas and PLO. It would also be in better position to bargain of the Hostages, a drama that could stretch over months, if not years. Besides, the hostages will constitute insurance for survival of a cornered Hamas in those circumstances.
With the hostage crisis gathering serious interest by all stakeholders, Israel could come under increased pressure from them to enter in incremental negotiations. This, in our view could only happen when Israel has some material supremacy, in terms of occupying critical territories of Gaza, which in-turn adds to the inevitability of launching the Comprehensive Ground Attack as soon as Gaza is sufficiently softened. However, so far Israel seems to pacify its public and to drive a sense of unification amongst them, which had eroded in recent years. Though about a fortnight has passed, Israel has failed to subdue Hamas despite Israeli brutal supremacy in air and on ground. This should be a worrying aspect for its allies. At the same time, the Arab world would also be nervous since the toxic effects of Hamas emerging as a force to recon with could infect the governments in the region.
The conflict in Israel, has increased polarisation at various levels globally, while the two blocs, American and Russian, have become more hostile to each other, the cyber-warfare has intensified, and propaganda and disinformation has attained new heights. More organic danger is possibility of attacks by one community against the other, triggering a vicious chain reaction. Already, western countries and members of the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance have beefed up their security at home and are scrambling to protect Jewish symbols and places of worship, in anticipation of violence by pro-Palestine groups.
There have been antisemitic incidents in France and Germany. All over Europe and Americas, securities have been beefed up in anticipation of attacks against Jewish people and properties. Conversely, it has increased the threat of islamophobia, a fact that has been acknowledged by USA’s President. Attacks on Pro-Palestine groups., Silencing, harassing and intimidating intellectuals speaking or writing in favour of Palestine, being dubbed as anti-Israel, Hijab-wearing Muslim women being insulted and attacked on streets. In USA, a Palestinian child was killed while mother stabbed, clashes on social media in Brazil are intensifying. Political Polarization in Latin America, between nationalists and liberals has increased, Writers, social media influencers being incentivised to express against Palestine, Hamas, and in support of Israel while depicting all Palestinians as terrorists, University professors and organisations have been harassed and intimidating for pro-Palestine comments or leanings, and there is a subtle shift to debating anti-Muslim, Islamophobic trends. Imbalance in media coverage of the conflict, where Israel is being depicted as victim of terrorism, ignoring its atrocities, past and current. Media is also justifying Israels disproportionate use of force against civilian Palestinians. Argentina is also emerging as a scene where Palestinian groups are being discriminated against by the media. Media houses are not including members of Palestinian communities when there are ongoing debated regarding Gaza or Palestine in context of the conflict. Universities and colleges in the US have become a rallying point for pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian groups, who, fuelled by social media groupings are gathering on ground to demonstrate. This is rapidly dividing student community in for or against groups.
Though, it may be a bit early, but certainly not out of context, that the current conflict marks the beginning the first kinetic stage of a long Hybrid-Warfare in the region. Already Western bloc is rushing to support Israel, in a frantic bid to thwart the rising probabilities of a long-drawn Hybrid-Conflict in the region, where Israel may become the epicentre. Israel, which is clearly a centre plank of western bloc’s strategies, and also main-plank of Indian strategies, will try all means to secure Israel, while the Russian, Chinese blocs, will have their own strategic considerations, and are less likely to mind weaning away of focus from Ukraine and other 5GW theatres.
Iran has communicated to Pakistan, Malaysia, and Tunisia, that war is inevitably going to spread. It is believed that this warning is meant to be conveyed to Arab states as well, through diplomatic means, and some asymmetric response could occur in next 24-hours, from the Axis of Resistance.
In shadows of the conflict, Ukraine has tried to regain its relevance, and has used USA supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) against Russian targets in the conflict area, claiming remarkable achievements. This has however, raised the conflict a notch up, as Ukraine continues to attack Russian positions with multiple drone attacks. There are reports of sabotage against under-sea gas pipelines supplying energy to Sweden (08-Oct-2023), and sabotage against under-sea telecoms cable connecting Estonia with Sweden, at several places; is being seen as a beginning of retaliation by Russia, through covert-means, to Sweden’s joining NATO. Nevertheless, these incidents and their sequence is firmly linking Israel with Ukraine in terms of emergence as conflict zones.
What we see as the conflict, is fast morphing into several distinct issues, and signalling the expansion of the conflict surface area. Various undercurrents and widespread unrest, across the globe, could rapidly create more hot-spots, and ignite local conflicts. The new innovative ideas, and access to technology has given an unprecedent boost to the militants, terrorists, and criminals. While the criminals are playing havoc in Cyber-Space through social media and are destroying the traditional law and order landscape through scams and abuse of social media, the terrorists are using these platforms for sources of intelligence, propaganda, recruitments, and financing. The conflict has opened vistas for the terrorists to economically neutralize the modern technology-based equipment and weaponry, innovatively using locally available material. This fits snugly in the conventional guerilla warfare strategies. There is no doubt that Israel was seen as a formidable state, with effective intelligence and security instruments, but the way it has been taken by surprise, should be seen as a red flare. It is important to note that Hamas struck Israel, when it was engaged in unprecedented political turmoil, when its security forces were being placed at a backburner, and substantial number of its personnel were in protests of one type of other, indicating rising resentment within its ranks. That was the time, the enemy struck. Comparing the strategical aspects with Pakistan, one cannot ignore the fact that we are undergoing an acute period of internal non-cohesion, a serious deficit of trust, enormous economic hardships, unprecedented diplomatic challenges, chaotic situation in the cyber-space, where unprecedented anti-military narratives are being inculcated in minds of innocent, and less knowledgeable citizens, and above all, the rising threats from the terrorist entities. It would be naïve to believe that our enemies on both flanks, would allow Pakistan to trudge out of this crisis-like situation. It would be very precarious to continue this trajectory. Need of a rest is paramount, where we must, all together set the course right.
This is a period, where the Judiciary is re-setting its course, while the Armed Forces are also deeply involved in addressing several challenges of security. What is needed is a political redefining with consensus, so that for once primary grievances of public are addressed swiftly, and democratic values are upheld. All pillars should be prepared to make necessary constitutional amendments, with pre-consensus, irrespective of the election’s outcome. The cardinal rules for the future course of action as a nation, should be reset with consensus, and then only, we will be able to counter the rising threat of terrorism, which is now suckling on the unrest among the youth and less privileged classes of the country.
Israel has not yet been able to boast a victory, as it struggles to find ways to release its hostages and satisfy its public. Israel is trying to steer itself in a position where heads it wins, and tails, Palestinians lose. Also, it has not been able to prove any success in neutralizing Hamas, who continue to intermittently lob rockets and missiles inside Israel, where sirens blare now and then, forcing people to take shelter. While such sirens may be good for impressing the dignitaries visiting Israel, in pursuit of expressing their solidarity with Israel, and seeking Israel’s cooperation in securing release of their hostages and dual nationals. Some can be suspected of shedding crocodile tears on the deaths of innocent Palestinians, while holding Israel’s hand, in a hope that Israel will accede to their requests for calming down and ceasing the attacks and enter negotiations. The recent incident of bombing the hospital has deflected the actual conflict, which has temporarily pushed back the issue of evacuation and ground offensive in the background.
It is becoming obvious that USA is not prepared to allow widening of the conflict, and to be diverted from Ukraine at this time. USA had only recently committed itself by providing advanced ATACMS to Ukraine and would like to prop-up Ukraine against Russia more robustly. USA would not like another Hybrid-Warfare front to be opened right in its strategical backyard and disturb the pivot of its future strategies. Israel, on the other hand, would not be oblivious of this American desire, but in its own national interest, it would like to milk the American cash cow as much as it can. It will, therefore, continue to raise the stakes in this conflict, where it may be losing before Hamas for the moment, but would be gaining many times more in terms of material support from west and USA. Israel knows that no number of deaths of the enemy can bring back its dead to life, but copious aid and support can at least wipe some tears off the faces of the public.
China, now finding Egypt in a tight corner and under tremendous pressures to allow resettlement of Hamas in Sinai, where already hordes of ISIS and other homegrown militants roam, has made offers to enhance cooperation and work for stability in the Middle East region.
The author is former Director General Intelligence Bureau
