24 Oct 2023

Tariq Lodhi

The Israel Palestine war has become one sided and extremely brutal. Israel Airforce and defence forces are brutally bombing the civilian population with impunity. The Western powers are fully backing the killing spree of innocent civilians who happen to be Palestinian Muslims. Ironically, the US President Biden is at the forefront to let the Israeli forces carry out this massacre. The UK PM Rishi Sunak reached Israel with plane load of weapons for Israel. Western media have not been forthright and neutral as the barbaric killing of Palestinians in Gaza is not being shown properly. The situation is going from bad to worse.

Casualties and Destruction

Gaza:              The number of Palestinians killed due to indiscriminate air bombing by Israel has risen above 4,700, with about 25-percen children, while more than 12, 065 are reported to be injured.

It is now reported during the Israeli bombing (20-Oct-2023) and destruction of The Greek Orthodox Church of Saint Porphyrius, built in 1150 in Gaza, caused death of 16-Christian Palestinians besides other Palestinians, who had taken refuge there.  However, the media narratives, through soft-pedalling this issue, are hinting that this could also be a result of another misfire of the missiles launched from Gaza against Israel.In Israel, rockets attack sirens continued to be blared in several parts, including Ashkelon, Tel Aviv, Sderot (one house was damaged by incoming rocket), Netivot, Ashdod, etc.

West Bank:              During a ground operation in West Bank on 21-Oct-2023, 13-Palestinians, including 5-children were killed during an attack / raid on Nur Shams Refugee Camp, while one Israeli soldier, died, as several others received injuries. It was also reported that IAF has struck, with jet fighter aircraft and drone, on 22-Oct-2023, at Al-Ansar Mosque in Jenin Refugee Camp. Israel claims that the mosque was being used as a refuge, and a clandestine Underground Camp clandestine route, for Hamas fighters, who had gathered to plan some attack on civilian population in the area. Israel’s Times of Israel released a picture of a sewer hole sized open cover, captioned as opening to underground terror route. Two Palestinians are reported to have been killed in this strike, while several others received injuries. Israeli sources claim that the Palestinians using the said target site were involved in the detonation of IED near the IDF picquet at West bank barrier.  The attack signifies that Israel, after consolidating its positions around Gaza and Lebanon, is now augmenting its IDF based thrust with IBOs, and activating its intelligence assets in Palestinian occupied areas, as well as coordinating effective ELINT, SOCMINT, SATINT and other HUMINT resources available to Shin Bet.

All UNRWA services have been halted in West Bank in anticipation to more air attacks. It may be noted that atleast 700,000 Jewish settlers are said to have illegally settled in West Bank and East Jerusalem sine last few decades, and there have been recent incidents of Jewish Settlers confronting Palestinians in Al Aqsa Mosque, as well as in local areas. There were posters distributed, and, online announcements calls were made for the Jewish settlers to go and pray in Al-Aqsa Mosque in the Temple Mount, raising the risk of violence in Jerusalem. However, only a hundred or so came up, who were allowed in batches of twenty at a time, under very strict security cordons around the area.  There are reports of Israeli settlers attacking Palestinians in several parts of Israel, including Ousra Village, where at least four Palestinians were killed.

The number of Palestinians killed in West Bank has risen to eighty-four, while more than 1,500 are believed to be injured by the Israel’s military action. On 20-Oct-2023, it was reported that atleast 12-Palestinains dubbed as terrorists, were killed in West Bank, while more than 60-Palestinians were arrested, raising the number of arrested well-above 1,070. During the operations, one Israeli Police Sargent was killed in Noor al-Shams Refugee Camp. Several houses were also destroyed, claiming to be those of wanted Palestinians.

Others:          According to Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has the number of journalists killed during the coverage of the conflict, has risen to twenty-two, with majority of being killed as Palestinians, while preforming their duties in the conflict zone.

Israel:             Media placed number of Israelis killed as 1,403, including 307-soldiers, and 3,800 injured.

Tactical

• Following to the announcement by Israel for Deepening and Increasing its strike into occupied territories, Isael claims that this tactic, would reduce the risk to its soldiers in combat, while it will also pave way for better and precise IBOs. It is believed that this announcement comes as the Humanitarian Aid is allowed into Palestine under strict screening by Israel and is intended to offset any plans by Hamas or PIJ in taking advantage of the movement, to escape or make political scores. In anticipation to its attack, and defence of its about 300,000 reservists and 160,000 troops amassed along the Gaza borders, Israel is weakening Hamas’s peripheral defences, observation posts, tunnels, and possible storages of weapons. 
• To further demonstrate its dominance, one of IDF’s tank has accidentally fired into Egyptian territory, on late 22-Oct-2023. The fragmented shrapnel of tank fire injured atleast seven persons on the Egyptian side, as the IDF announced its presence in the area. The IDF was quick to express its sorrow on the incident, to create a plausible denial. Analysts believe that this incident has the potential to further weaken Egypt-Israel relations, as Egypt could consider it Israel’s arrogantly highhandedness, to remind Egypt of its failure to accept the deportation of Palestinians into Sinai. Such a move can also be seen as a warning shot by Israel, demonstrating its ability to demolish the border hurdles and push a flood of refugees in Egypt. This could also be an expression of Israel’s indignation for conducting the Peace Summit, sans Israel.
• Israel claims that from the rockets lobbed by Hamas or PIJ since 07-Oct-2023, 550 had malfunctions or failed, resultantly falling inside Gaza, and causing deaths and damages. This is in support of its claims that the explosion at the Anglixan Hospital, and the Church, were such misfires, foe which Hamas and PIJ should be blamed. There are reports that Israeli Shin bet and Police have recovered copies of Holy Quran, cell phones, and sleeping bags in deserted areas near Ashkelon and Kiryat Gat.  We had earlier commented that considering the confidence and the planning of Hamas, for the attack, it is likely that Hamas had succeeded in placement of sleeper cells inside Israel, to function as fifth columnist, as the dust settles down. The discovery of these tell-tale material, adds to our apprehensions, of the conflict converging into a 5GW situation and the possibility of Israel becoming an arena from hybrid-Warfare further increases. 
• Israel has announced that acceding to the request by ultra-Orthodox Haredim Israelis, some 2,000 Haredim Israelis have been allowed to join as volunteers in IDF. This move, on one hand seems to appease Israeli opposition who had been complaining that Netanyahu government was benefiting Haredim community by exempting them from military services and regular work. By engaging the Haredim community in military, this grievance of the opposition could be addressed. Also, by adding or allowing volunteers along its regulars and reservists, Israel, could be paving way of inducting PMCs in the theatre. If so, it will further increase possibilities of more PMCs arriving in the region under various patrons and set stage of increased Hybrid-Warfare activity.

Displacements

Israeli sources claim that atleast 700,000 people have been displaced as they migrated from North to South Gaza, while UN sources place this figure as 1.4-million, double to Israeli claims. According to Israeli estimates, only a few hundred thousand remain there. It seems that Israel is trying to exaggerate the numbers, so that it can absolve itself from bombing or attacking populated areas, in contravention to all charters. 

Israel says that more than half a million Israelis have been displaced due to clearing conflict zones around Gaza, and Nort Israel along Lebanese borders.

Hostages:

According to Israel, the there are 210-hostages in Hamas’s captivity, which include 20-children, about 15-hostages are above 60-years age, though Hamas continues to report holding a higher number. Israel claims that few hostages have succeeded escaping and returning to Israel, while some reported missing since 07-Oct-223, may never be found.

Analysts believe that the hostages have been dispersed among various militant groups, and are lodged at different geographical locations, while some hostages have been handed over to civilian families to be held by them. This is a normal practice used by militants and terrorists to disperse the hostages, to minimize possibility of rescue operations. Such strategies by the captors were witnessed in ISIS related situations in Iraq and Syria, as well as in Lebanon, where, in past, hijacked aircraft passengers were so housed.

With Qatar’s negotiations, on 21-Oct-2023, Hamas had released two dual national Americans, mother and daughter, Judith Raanan, and 17-years old Natalie Raanan, who belonged to Chicago. Same day, Hamas also announced that Israel had refused to accept another two-Israeli hostage that it was prepared to free. However, there has been no third-party confirmation to this claim, and can be, at this stage, seen as a swift narrative-building-move, to stoke further pressures within Israel. Israel declined to comment on the statement terming it as false propaganda. Experienced analysts say that the release is not an unexpected development, when there are about half-million Israeli forces mounting pressure along Gaza. It is believed to be a defining moment or existential moment for Hamas, since hostage negotiations and outcome, could become a lifeline for Hamas, in due course of time.  It was evident from the token release of the hostages, that discreet negotiations are progressing well and are gaining traction, and more talks, with some hiccups, will follow. As we see, this release was soon followed by incremental opening of the Rafah Border, raising hopes for exit of Dual nationals as well, which was being alluded by some western media outlets. it is believed that permissions and coordination with stake holders is in place to allow dual nationals to cross into Egypt from Gaza.

Egypt (Strategic):  Egypt hosted a Peace Summit at Cairo, on 18-Oct-2023, sans major actors in the conflict, i.e., USA, Israel, Hamas, and Iran. The meet is more introvert, in order the strengthen Egyptian relations with the participants, in context of the risks from spill-over of the conflict, and Israel’s pressures for allowing deportation of Palestinians into Sinai area.

Humanitarian Supplies:

There are worldwide appeals for ceasefire, cessation of indiscriminate bombings, free movement of Humanitarian Aid, and a fair solution to the age-old crisis. Protests and demonstrations have taken place across the globe, urging their respective governments to consider the plight of Palestinians and to use influence for a permanent solution to the issue. By and large, the protests have remained peaceful. 

More than 175-Humanitarian-Aid-trucks continue to line up and hold on Egyptian side of the Rafah Crossing, as Aid begins to trickle in at a rate of 20-trucks a day. Israel has nearly destroyed the roads leading into Gaza from Rafah Crossing, to obstruct free flow of humanitarian aid. This has forced the aid consignments to be off-loaded from the trucks from Egypt to smaller trucks for travel on the broken roads.

The shortages continue to increase, though limited trickle of Humanitarian Aid, duly vetted screened by Israel is being allowed incrementally. Fuel is not amongst the items being allowed, at least now, while the supplies are to be confined to Southern Gaza only. It is believed that in coming days the supplies will incrementally ease.

Narratives and Propaganda:

• As the Israel-Hamas conflict slides into narratives and propaganda warfare, while hostilities continue, though at a slightly wider scale across Palestinian occupied lands and along Lebanese Borders, global polarization of those in favour of Palestine and those in favour of Israel, continue to increase, sporadically breaking out in incidents of violence and discrimination. There are warnings pouring-in from several leaders in the world about need to prevent any Wider Conflict, Religious War, and Clash of Civilizations (Islamophobia, Anti-Semitism, etc.).
• The media coverage of explosion at Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital, has been overtaken by media-coverage for other developments, including opening of Humanitarian Aid flow, and tensions rising along Lebanon Israel border. Although, French intelligence has also supported the view that the explosion was caused by detonation of a failed Palestinian rocket, yet for time being it seems to have lost its lacklustre. Meanwhile, Palestinian Red Crescent has informed that Israel had called for evacuation (20-Oct-2023) of Al-Quds Hospital, risking lives of some 12,000 patients under treatment there, including 70% children.
• There has been a sharp rise in hate crimes, against Jews in western hemisphere, and is compelling their respective governments to allow level field for protests and demonstrations by pro-Palestinian groups, ease the polarization, and to reduce the pressures in the community. Germany has reported more than 1,100 incidents of hate crime, while more than 100-police officials have been injured as about 46-gatherings in support of Palestine were prohibited, though some were later allowed to take place under strict security supervision. USA’s President has also called upon Americans to refrain from accentuating Islamophobia and Anti-Semitism. This comes in wake of earlier hard-hitting comments by US President, which evokes criticism in State Department bureaucracy.
• Meanwhile, collaborative efforts by pro-Israel Cyber-Actors, continue to overshadow voices of pro-Palestinian groups and entities. Recently, a Web Summit was postponed due pulling out of several participants, as its organizer had demonstrated pro-Palestine sympathies. It may be noted that Israeli IT and Social Media companies, and respective associates occupy major portion of the Cyber-Space surface and are being used in the 5GW as an Israeli tool. Internet services remain disrupted in Gaza, due to Israeli action, which aims to disrupt communications.
• In Detroit, the president of a Synagogue was found dead after being stabbed, outside her home. Though the police have not declared it as a hate crime, yet, in the given environment of tensions, it is casting negative affects and could trigger violent responses elsewhere.
• Pro-Hamas lobbies are trying to develop a narrative that Israel is intensifying attacks in Gaza, in a bid to kill hostages, which are to be blamed on Hamas, and to trigger an international outburst against Hamas in particular and Palestinians in general, and to create plausible justification to go flat-out in annihilating Palestinians. It is being suggested that Israel does not want to conduct the Comprehensive Ground Attack, since it is aware of the risks involved in conducting urban warfare. Therefore, to resort to an even more lethal air attacks, using Aircraft, drones, loitering ammunitions, and artillery, it intends to justify such action by any death of Hamas captives. On the other hand, should such a narrative have any basis, whatsoever, in that case it can also be seen that, in face of the imminent possibilities of a ground attack, Hamas is cornered into negotiating about the Hostages, and to ensure that they are released at the earliest possible time, so that no accidental death or injury occurs to the hostages; lest, Israel conducts the Comprehensive Ground Attack, as it has been threatening with.  This view is supported by earlier statements by Hamas, saying that it had offered release of hostages, but Israel did not accept, besides Hamas’s unilateral announcements in media that it was prepared a negotiated release of hostages.
• As we had indicated earlier, international media is trying to steer the debates into a sectarian environment. Hezbollah is repeatedly being emphasised as a Shia organisation, that, on behest of Iran, is aligning-itself with Hamas, thereupon, it is being implied that the conflict is escalating due to attempts of Shia dominance in the region. Concurrently, there are increasing western voices that allege Iran to be the main threat in the region, and it appears that with this Pro-Israeli que, the focus of propaganda and narratives will shift towards Iran in coming days. The main conflict is being surpassed with the deluge of propaganda and disinformation warfare.
• USA’s President, on 21-Oct-2023, has reiterated that the Hamas’s attack was primarily aimed to derail Israel-KSA détente and reproachment. In other words, it is specifically alluding towards Iran’s strategic interests that drove the attack and its follow-up. Such a statement, appears to be a result of behind-the-scenes diplomatic communications between USA and KSA, or other third parties.  This disclosure follows Prince Turki al-Faisal’s statement of 18-Oct-2023, in which he had categorically condemned Hamas, and Israel, for their tactics, and condemned the idea of deporting Palestinians into Sinai. He had also declared that “All militarily occupied people have a right to resist their occupation — even militarily,” whereas “civil insurrection and disobedience” could be seen as more preferred means. This assertion, though conveys KSA’s view, without any formal Saudi endorsement, western media would prevent the statement’s wider official publicity, as it could raise the argument to exonerate all forces, including those engaged in IIOK, from the accusations of terrorism. The KSA’s Prince Turki al-Faisal also stressed that ‘There are no heroes, but only victims in this war.’  Several analysts consider it as a clear shift in KSA’s stand on the issue, while remaining committed to Palestinians, but distancing itself from the armed group, alleged to be supported by axis of resistance or sponsored by Iran. This shift could slow down the warming relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia broached in recent past. It will also increase challenges for China, who had been main actor in bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia closer. However, since these moves are all well thought out ones, the present situation could only be seen as a not-unexpected hiccup.
• Several remarks by USA’s President in context of the Israel-Hamas conflict have also kicked up a war-of-words with Russia, who claim that several diplomatically inappropriate words were used by the President against Russia, in some of his addresses. Russian sources claim that word tyrant was used to describe Russian President.

Escalation: 

• Risk continues to remain for a spill-out of the conflict in the region.
• USA destroyer, USS Carney operating in Northern Red Sea, has intercepted several drones and atleast three cruise missiles launched from Yemen, by Houthis, said to be backed by Iran. As per USA claim, these missiles were on course along Red Sea, towards Israeli targets. USA has also claimed tha several of its troops stationed in Iraq and Syria have come under drone attack in last few days. The American interception of these drones and missiles, is likely to make Saudi Arabia quite uncomfortable, since it has sizeable assts in and along Red Sea. The ambiguity left in American claim about the intended target further adds to the confusion that these attacks from Yemen could sow. The message conveyed by the interception is multi-dimensional, as it follows the statement of Prince Faisal in-Turki in USA, in which he condemned Hamas and Israel both, diverting from KSA’s earlier stand. This attack could further compel KSA to think about its security in evolving regional hybrid warfare environment and lingering threat from Iranian proxies, while mainland Iran continues to hold KSA’s hand in an act of friendship.
• Limited and contained violence continues along Northern Israel, where Lebanese and Israeli borders meet. Israel bombed several targets in Lebanon (21-Oct-2023) in retaliation to Anti-Tank Missile strikes by Hezbollah, which had killed one Israeli soldier. As a result of Anti-Tank Missile fire inside Israel by Hezbollah, two Thai nationals in Kibbutz Hanita area were killed. The Air attacks killed six Hezbollah fighters, bringing it to a total of 19-Hezbollah fighters killed so far since 07-Oct-2023. Israel also claimed that it had shot-down a drone that was launched by Hezbollah, and its drone / aircraft was retaliated by Hezbollah firing anti-Aircraft Missiles. Israel claims that is targeting Hezbollah’s military infrastructures, anti-tank-missile launching nests, besides arsenals of long-range rockets. Israel however continues its sabre-clattering, as Hezbollah also maintains its belligerent posture, while Israeli PM has warned of devastating consequences for Lebanon, if Hezbollah is allowed to exceed its limits. The level of lethal weapons being used is increasing gradually, as Hezbollah has introduced Surface-to-Air Anti-Aircraft Missiles in the theatre. Iran is believed to be using well calibrated responses as it increases Israeli engagement, yet it appears, that Iran is not prepared to let the situation escalate to a point where Iran is either attacked directly or is dragged in more directly. As USA is also in the vicinity with all war-paints and drums-sounding, Iran must be double careful. However, if Iran blinks, then, there is possibility of some third party, conducting any False Flag Operation, which could be interpreted as declaration of war, and open dam gates of wider conflict in the region.
• Israel continues to push away the focus of Hamas-Israel conflict and its aftermath, towards Northern Israel, in Israel-Lebanon region. It has expanded the scope of internal evacuation of the border villages located inside Israel, and claims that additional 200,000 members of another 14-communities including Kiryat Shemona community, are being evacuated / moved from border villages. There is a widespread fear about possibility of Hezbollah fighters infiltrating and causing violence like that along Gaza.
• Travel advisory:  Israel has asked its citizens to immediately leave Egypt, Jordan, and Morrocco. Inclusion of Morrocco may be seen as future negotiated destination of Hamas in case some agreement is worked out by the negotiators. The number of countries who have issued travel advisories for their citizens for leaving Lebanon is steadily increasing.
• Israel continues to attack the airports of Damascus and Aleppo in Syria, using composite means (Air-Borne Bombings by conventional aircraft and Drones, and using Missiles), and interrupting flight operations. In a recent attack on 22-Oct-2023, two employees of metrological department at the airport were killed in such a strike. Israel claims that these airports are used for military logistics by IRGC of Iran, for Hezbollah. Syria has meanwhile temporarily shifted its operations to Latakia International Airport. On 18-Oct-2023, a suicide drone hit USA assets in Syria, causing minor injuries to those present there. Ain al-Asad Air base in Iraq was also targeted in one such attack in last few days, where one of the PMC volunteers died due to a cardiac arrest while taking refuge.
• USA has announced supplying Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and additional Patriot Air Defense missile system battalions to the Middle East. The exact destination of these systems is not known, though it is believed that they may be provided to Israel and KSA or used as a carrot for KSA to woo it back into negotiations with Israel, and ditch further reproachment with Iran. USA already has more than 2,000 marines afloat in its armada in Mediterranean Sea. The deployment also underscores preparations for a larger conflict anticipated in the region and the real-time risk its forces now face on hands of Axis of Resistance or any other non-state actors. Although, the world, including USA, desire an early cease-fire, and perhaps a more permanent solution to the crisis, so that it could focus on other theatres, like Ukraine, yet, Israel, remaining un-flinched, is claiming that it will continue to conduct the conflict or war, in a manner that suits its best national interest, and would go to any extent in this context, that may be necessary. 
• Iran has been continuously waring that the USA’s interference, and continuation of Israel’s attacks against Palestinians could aggravate the regional peace situation. It had earlier informed Pakistan of rising risk, while its several senior officials have also sounded the warning at different occasions. Iranian Intelligence Minister, on 21-Oct-2023, has apprehended that Israel will continue to face internal instability and security issues, while the political resentments and imbalances will accentuate both internally and externally. It seems that he is referring to possible blow-back effect to Netanyahu’s political future, and about Israels standing in the region as an invincible military power and is also hinting towards possible covert-operations by Hezbollah on Israeli territory.   It also can be considered as a warning of impending long continued low-intensity conflict, within Israeli territories.

The author is former Director General Intelligence Bureau