Dr. Naveed Elahi

In wake of the exit of undocumented Afghan refugees, back-to-back terrorist attacks have been launched in KP and Balochistan, resulting in martyrdom of at least twenty-three security personnel within one day.

In the first incident, the terrorists ambushed two security forces vehicles enroute from Pasni to Ormara in the Gwadar district, leading to the martyrdom of 14 soldiers on 3 Nov 2023. As per initial reports, IEDs were placed on the road which hit the vehicles and burnt them to ashes. The place of incident is more than 100 KMs away from Gwadar.

In two separate incidents, on the same day, two terrorists were neutralized, and three security personnel, including two soldiers and a police Havildar, embraced martyrdom in three distinct anti-terrorist operations. An intelligence-based operation in the Rori area of the Dera Ismail Khan district resulted in the elimination of one terrorist, identified as Usama, a suicide bomber affiliated with TTP. The second operation in Lakki Marwat district saw the demise of another terrorist, the discovery of various terrorist hideouts, and the tragic loss of two g soldiers, Naik Zafar Iqbal and Sepoy Haji Jan, during an intense exchange of fire.

Furthermore, in a separate incident in the Kulachi area of the Dera Ismail Khan district, an improvised explosive device detonated, leading to the martyrdom of Havildar Shahid Iqbal.

In the wee hours of Saturday (04 Nov) 5/6 terrorists entered Pakistan Airforce base Mianwali, Punjab, from Jhamra Sharqi (Eastern side of Base) side and launched attacks with RPG and small arms. A gunbattle ensued which continued for mor than one hour. Reportedly 2 fighter airplanes and 1 fuel bowser were burnt and 1 PAF official injured, who was shifted to PAF hospital. Three terrorists were killed in exchange of fire.
The situation described reflects a concerning escalation of terrorist activities, demonstrating a coordinated effort by various extremist groups. The attacks, timed with the deadline for the exit of undocumented Afghan refugees, indicate a complex security challenge that requires a multifaceted strategy.

Analysis:

Intelligence Failure: All incidents are clear indicators of intelligence lethargy and failure to provide actionable fore-knowledge. It seems that the national intelligence agencies are either not focused on counter-terrorism activities or they lack proper resources and strategy to handle the situation.  

Coordination Among Terrorist Groups: The synchronized nature of the attacks suggests a level of coordination among terrorist groups, potentially involving TTP and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). The reports of their collaboration are turning true. There are some indications that Sindhudesh Liberation Army also provides local support. This collaboration poses a significant threat and may indicate an attempt to create a more potent and unified front against security forces.

Reconnaissance and Local Support: The successful execution of attacks indicates that terrorists had conducted thorough reconnaissance. The presence of local facilitators or informers in the targeted areas is evident. The settlers or refugees, in low level covers, and may be insiders, like in PAF base, could be the informers.  

Strategic Targeting: The choice of targets, including security forces, an Air Force base, and the use of improvised explosive devices, reflects a strategic approach by the terrorists to inflict maximum damage, undermine security, and create fear and despondency among the people.

Impact of Afghan Refugee Situation: The attacks coinciding with the Afghan refugee exit deadline may signify a response to geopolitical developments.  It underscores the need for comprehensive security measures to address potential repercussions arising from regional dynamics. It reflects a growing proximity between TTP and Afghan Taliban, both handled by other forces.

Suggested Strategy:

Enhanced Intelligence and Surveillance: As intelligence is the main weapon against terrorism, there is a need to strengthen intelligence-gathering capabilities to identify and neutralize terrorist networks. Especially, the facilitators and sleeper cells must be identified. Intelligence organizations must collaborate with local communities to gather information and identify potential threats. They can play a crucial role in reporting suspicious activities and countering extremist narratives.

Border Security and Checkpoints: The gaps in the fence across Pak-Afghan border must be plugged. Besides, border security must be strengthened to prevent the infiltration of terrorists. LEAs ought to intensify security checks at key transit points and maintain a robust presence in vulnerable areas.

Interagency Collaboration: Unfortunately, inter-agency coordination is intermittent and mostly short-lived. Facilitate coordination and information-sharing among various security agencies. Joint operations and a unified approach are essential to effectively counter coordinated attacks by multiple terrorist groups. At least in Balochistan and erstwhile, all LEAs and intelligence agencies must form a centralized platform or task force dedicated to counter-terrorism efforts. This platform should serve as a hub for continuous communication, information-sharing, and joint planning among various security agencies. They should develop clear and standardized protocols for information-sharing.

Strategic Communication: To defeat the aim of the terrorists to create demoralization and despondency among the people and the forces, it is imperative to develop strategic communication to keep the public informed and reassured. Counter false narratives and propaganda disseminated by terrorist groups.

Tackling Afghan Taliban: They have proven time and again that they have the tendency to renege on their promises and agreements. Many groups among them have hatred against Pakistan for siding with the US in the war on terror. They are supporters of TTP and use them to launch attacks against Pakistan.  Prioritize the establishment of a robust verification and monitoring mechanism to ensure the Afghan Taliban’s compliance with any agreements. International observers and neutral parties could play a role in overseeing the implementation of commitments. At the same time Pakistan should continue diplomatic efforts to engage with the Afghan Taliban.

Enhanced Base Security: There are many instances when terrorists attacked PAF bases in the past. Many a times insiders were involved who were apprehended and penalized. Again, there is a need to strengthen the security infrastructure of sensitive installations, especially the Air Force base. Apart from target-hardening of the vulnerable areas, effective intelligence sharing should be ensured.

The strategists and decision makers must keep in mind that there is no short-cut to countering terrorism. The battle without proper strategy will prolong the conflict and delay the mitigating of the threat posed by terrorist groups. A comprehensive counter terrorism strategy must be formulated with the input of the stakeholders and implemented in letter and spirit.

The author is Editor of The Strategic Brief