Part -1 (Domestic)

BALOCHISTAN

1. Unidentified shooters shot dead one Deen Muhammad a guard of a mobile company tower on Stadium Road Mastung (5.2.24).

2. Three children (names not known) were reportedly injured during grenade attack on the PPP election office in Hub (6.2.24).

3. In separate incidents of two bomb blasts, twenty-eight persons were killed, and forty others injured in targetted attacks on the election office of an independent candidate Asfand Yar Khan Kakar and Moulana Abdul Wasey (JUI-F) in Pishin and Killa Saifullah districts. Banned outfit ISIS- K/Daesh claimed responsibility of the said incidents (6.2.24).

4. Two grenade attacks were launched on the NADRA office in Kech and the residence of National Party candidate in Panjgur district. No loss of human life was reported (7.2.24).

5. A Levies force member (name not known) was martyred, and another injured in a targetted attack on their vehicle in Kharan district (8.2.24).

6. Two children were killed in a blast near Washbood area in Panjgur district (8.2.24)

7. Security forces claimed to have killed a high-profile terrorist identified as Abdul Shakoor Nouman @ Abu Hamza Khurasani reportedly affiliated with ISIS-K/Daesh during exchange of fire in Killa Saifullah district. He was the master mind behind bomb attacks in Pishin and Killa Saifullah on 6 Feb (8.1.24).

8. A man identified as Ghulam Abbas was killed in a bomb blast conducted by the unidentified terrorists in Jewani area of Gawader (9.2.24).

9. Bullet riddled dead bodies of six persons including businessman Asim Khan Rahatzai alongwith his five security guards were found from a farmhouse in the mountainous area of Killa Saifullah district. Police investigations are underway to determine the motive of the killings (11.2.24).

KPK

1. Police constable Sabaz Ali of Bomb Disposal Unit (BDU) was martyred, and another injured in an IED blast on Timergarha- Peshawar Road in Lower Dir district (5.2.24)

2. Two police personnel were injured during the targeted bomb attack on their mobile van on Wana- Kirikot Road in South Wazirstan district (6.2.24).

3. In an IBO, police busted a gang of kidnappers for ransom comprising Hazrat Hussain, Gulshad and Usman from upper Dir district. They had kidnapped a youth named Arman s/o Ismail from Karakaro village on 26 January, demand Rs.20 million as ransom and killed him later (7.2.24).

4. Police claimed to have repulsed an attack on the Maryan police station in Bannu district from two directions and made them flee with intense retaliatory fire. No loss of life was reported except damage to some thermal cameras fixed on the walls of the police station (7.2.24).

5. Five police officers were martyred and several injured in an IED blast targetting a police mobile van in Kulachi tehsil of Dera Ismail Khan district. They were identified as Sub Inspector Sultan Yousaf, driver Zeeshan, constable Muhammad Sabir, constable Israr Ahmed and constable Ali Ahmed (8. 2.24).

6. In another incident three police officers identified as ASI Iqbal Niazi, constable Fazal Rehman and constable Nouman were injured in a targeted IED blast followed by intense firing on their mobile van in the limits of Hathala police station in Dera Ismail Khan district (9.2.24).

Comments & Analysis: Dera Ismail Khan is in the line of fire for last more than two years. Hundreds of attacks on police stations and police officers have caused considerable loss of precious lives and damage to property. It is strange that effective measures have not been taken to secure this area. Frequent attacks in the area also indicate presence of several facilitators and sleeper terrorist cells, who have sowed terror among local public. Moreover, there appears to be a lack of counter strategy and connectivity between the police and intelligence agencies.

7. Former MNA, National Democratic Movement and election candidate Mohsin Dawar and fifteen others were injured, and three others were killed in exchange of fire with the security forces when they were protesting on delay in poll results in North Waziristan district (9.2.24).

Comments & Analysis: Mohsin Dawar claimed that he was winning but the results were manipulated and JUI (F) candidate Misbah Uddin was declared the winner. It took three days to declare this result. He protested this alleged rigging.

8. Security forces killed a high-profile terrorist Surat Gul @ Saifullah affiliated with ISIS-K/Daesh during exchange of fire in Khyber district (10.2.24).

9. Moulana Raza Hilmi (JUI- F) of Madrassa Usman ul Aloom was shot dead by unknown assailants in Ghandi Khaskel area in Lakki Marwat (10.2.24).

10. A teen aged boy identified as Asim was killed in a blast of explosive device in the Shagokhas in Timirgara area of Lower Dir district (11.2.24).

11. Unknown shooters killed a person Ejaz Khan on Bunnu Road in Dera Ismail Khan (11.2.24).

12. Police constable Ghulam Khan Wazir who was injured on 5 January in a remote controlled IED blast incident succumbed to injuries during treatment in a local hospital of Wana in South Wazirstan district (12.2.24).

13. Unidentified assailants shot dead a local hotel owner identified as Rehmat Khan at Landi Kotal Bazar in Khyber district. He managed to escape from the scene (12.2.24).

14. Three persons were killed, and five others injured during an attack by the unknown shooters on a vehicle in a ralley to congratulate PPP candidate Ahmed Karim Kundi on his success in provincial assembly seat in Dera Ismail Khan (12.2.24).

15. Unidentified men injured three persons identified as Meeran Khan, Jehangir Khan and Mir Asghar in grenade and gun attack on the Minerals Development Department checkpost at Sakhipul area of Jamurd tehsil in Khyber district (13.2.24).

Comments & Analysis:  The widespread, but coordinated attacks, indicate well-orchestrated terrorist attacks, conducted with intra-coordination amongst several terrorist groups. Furthermore, it is evident by use of tactics, like increased use of grenade throwing (hit-and-run), selected use of composite-attacks, (Using all arsenal, VBIED, IED, RPG, SBs, and multi-directional attack by teams who are using sophisticated weaponry and gadgetry) points towards an increased patronage by Hostile Intelligence Agencies (HIAs), due collaboration of more than one state.   

Although, there has been a slight respite in the last few days, yet it appears to be a strategical pause, or a lull before a storm, where the beaten terrorists are recuperating, and re-aligning themselves in sync with the unrest being sowed in Pakistan, by Hostile Intelligence Agencies (HIAs) through 5GW tactics and Agent Provocateurs.  Transition of a government has always been a crucial period, and there is need to be extra vigilant at this occasion, because, nearly all organisations, excluding Armed Forces and Judiciary, await new leadership and policies.

PUNJAB

1. Unidentified shooters killed three persons including Farooq Dogar and Naveed Bags Dogar in Kanpur area of Sheikhupura district. Investigations are underway to determine whether the aim behind the murders were an act of terrorism or a personnel enmity (10.2.24).

2. Police killed four criminals including Irfan Meerari and Kashf Rind in an encounter in the limits of Kot Mubarak police station in Dera Ghazi Khan district. However, during exchange of fire police constable Sheryar embraced martyredom (11.2.24).

3. Choudhary Muhomnad Adnan, former member of Provincial Assembly Punjab who recently contested 8th February general elections was shot dead by unidentified armed motorcyclists near police headquarter on old airport road, Rawalpindi (12.2. 24).

3. Six armed gangsters barged into a hotel and kidnapped the son of a businessperson Irfan Gajoji besides snatching a motorcycle from one Amir Hussain in Gajoji bridge area in the limits of Sadar police station in Dera Ghazi Khan district. The criminal gangs could not be subdued despite conducting number of operations by the police in Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur, and Rahimyar Khan districts of South Pujab. Such criminal groups including Ladi, Merrari and other ganges involved in murder a dacoties and kidnapping for ransom seem remerging fast in adjoining tribal areas as well as settled areas of South Punjab encompassing from riverian Kacha areas to Mirpur, Kashmore and even extended to more districts in interior Sindh. (13.2.24) 

SINDH

1. Three persons including Farooq Mirani s/o a police Sub Inspector carrying a grenade in his hand was reportedly exploded resulted killing him along with two nearby children Rehan and Nasreen in Haji Limmu Ghoth in Gulshan-e-Iqbal area of Karachi. He was reportedly involved in a motorcycle snatching case (7.2.24).

2. Six persons including a Police Assistant Sub Inspector Sultan Shah were killed and five others injured in a clash between two groups near Nodero in Larkana district (19.2.24).

3.  An activist of banned Ahel-Sunnat-wal-Jamaat (ASWJ) Saad Farooq who was injured on in a gun attack in Pak Colony, Karachi by unknown persons on 5 February succumbed to injuries after treatment in a local hospiral (13 2.24).

3. Unknown armed motorcyclists martyred a police constable Waheed Pervaiz in a targetted attack near Nazia Square in New Karachi area (13.2.24).

4. An angry mob lynched a suspected mugger out of three who shot at and injured two citizens in North Karachi. The deceased was later identified as Abdul Rasheed and his two accomplices were also arrested by the police (13.2.24).

Comments & Analysis: – Pakistan witnessed high degree acts of terrorism during the period under review. Almost all the areas in Balochistan remained targets of bombs blasts, grenade attacks followed by guns fire. Analogous situation but in lesser intensity and number, prevailed in KPK. Caretaker Interior Minister Gogar Riaz on 9th February stated that fifty-six terrorist incidents took place across the country on the election’s day. It is becoming clear that anti-Chinese states are trying to impose unrest, disruptions, and chaos in Pakistan, through their intelligence agencies. The recent elections, in this context, constitute an important milestone, wherein all tools of Hybrid Warfare are being used with military precision. The trajectory suggests that with previous failures to kick-up an uprising, another concerted effort is around the corner, to confuse and provoke the masses, and pitch them against the Armed Forces, while pining them down with widely scattered, but coordinated terrorist attacks. The need for developing customized countermeasures against various methods of these hybrid-kinetic-attacks, is emphasized. This may require heralding necessary constitutional or legislative amendments. As it is near impossible for Security Forces alone to effectively counter modern-day terrorist activities, which are a facet of the Hybrid-Warfare, the need for the incoming government to infuse and solicit greater trust of the public is essential. At the same time, there is a need to take the bull of the core-issues by the horns. (Tariq Lodhi)   

                 Part -2 (Regional)

AFGHANISTAN

On 6.2.24 the Caretaker Prime Minister of Pakistan Anawar ul haq Kakar while talking to a TV channel stated that the expectation of Pakistan and Afghanistan from each other should be based on strategic interest with realistic and pragmatic approach. The relations between the two countries became bitter because Afghan Taliban government was not taking adequate action against the TTP terrorists operating from Afghanistan. The recent expulsion of illegal Afghan nationals from Pakistan also added to the bitterness.

On 12.2.24 two Guantanamo prisoners Abdul Zahir Sabir and Abdul Karim finally returned to Kabul after completion of their 15 years detention in Guantanamo till 2017 followed by 7 years home detention in Oman. IEA spokesperson Zabhiullah Mujahid welcomed them home. It is learned that one Abdul Rahim might be the last Afghan national still imprisoned there. On 13.2.24 Afghan government found one hundred corpses (dead bodies) near Sheikh Zayed University in Khost province. Investigation is underway for their identifications and when and why they were killed.

An international conference is scheduled to be held under auspices of the UN Secretary General at Doha in Qatar on 18-19.2.24 to decide the nature of relations of the international community with Afghanistan under IEA government led by Taliban. The US state department announced that it has not changed its policy towards Kabul and supported UN Security Council Resolution 2721 adopted by thirteen members, with abstinence of China and Russia, in December 2023. The resolution emphasised the appointment of a special representative of the UN to facilitate dialogue between IEA and the opposing groups there. The state department also expressed wonder about the Chinese government’s decision to establish full diplomatic relations with Afghanistan at ambassador’s level. According to some political analyists China and Russia are gradually strengthening their economic and bilateral relations with Afghanistan due to the strategic location of the country, neighbour hood, and geo-economic interests. The significant pace of connectivity development, and opening of trade, particularly in minerals, development of ‘Qosh-Tipa Canal’ offers unprecedent confidence in the current Afghan Government. In the given circumstances, where India and West seek to regain their control over Afghanistan, while denying same to China or Russia, further complicates the strategic landscape. Several sources, including UN suggest incubation of atleast 20-terrorist groups in Afghanistan, while their spill-over in CARs, Iran and Pakistan are no secret. The presence of IS-K, TTP, AQA, ETIM, TIM, IMU etc. continues to constitute a very serious challenge to regional security. As the foreign subtle interventions in Pakistan’s internal matters are on the increase, coordinated with the recent elections, thus the likelihood of raising several contentious issues along our western borders, cannot be ruled out. The first recognition by China may, however, support the Taliban stand that they enjoy absolute authority on the land and should not be left isolated in the global community. (Tariq Lodhi)

On 13 February, a Hight level meeting took place between Afghan and Irani security officials in Herat province to resolve border disputes and strengthen their bilateral relations.

INDIA

Five persons were reportedly killed and over 150 injured on 9th February because of protest by Muslims and their clash with police against demolition of a seminary and mosque in the Halwadi town Municipality in Uttarakhand state (province). A continous chain of such incidents has been taking place ahead of Indian Paralimantry election in May 2024 with the support of BJP led government in India to bag support of majority Hindu votes. Pakistan Foreign Office time and again issued statements against such discriminatory actions of the BJP led government with RSS agenda. A recent statement was issued on 22 January condemning the construction of Ram Mandir Janam Bhomi at the place of Babri Mosque (demolished in 1992) in Ayodhya.

Prime Minister Naraindet Modi’s visit to the UAE and Qatar on 13-14 Febrauary occupies significance both from political and economic angles. He attended the World Government Summit at Dubai besides inaugurating the first Hindu Temple “BAPs temple” in Abu Dahbi. His visit to Qatar was reportedly announced several hours after release and return of the seven former Officers of Indian Navy who were awarded death sentence by a Qatari court under espionage charges. BJP government will use all these achievements for political mileage in the May Paralimantry elections.

IRAN

To mark the forty-five anniversary of the National victory Day of Iran in a reception hosted by Raza Miri Magadomi Irani Ambassador to Pakistan at Islamabad wherein the Caretaker Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani was the chief guest. The senior government officials and political leaders also attended it, and all wished for strengthening brotherly bilateral relations between the two countries. Iran was the first country in the world to recognise Pakistan after independence while Pakistan was the first to recognise the Islamic Revolution in Iran.

National Gas Company director Saeed Aghili on 14 Febrauary stated that transmission net work is stable despite reportedly targetting natural gas pipelines by sabotage acts in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province as well as Fars province in southwestern Iran. Two explosions targeted natural gas pipelines in separate provinces of southwestern Iran on Wednesday in “acts of sabotage and terrorism,” state media reported.

Unfortunately, the shockwaves of Israel-Hamas, as-well as Ukraine-Russia Hybrid-Warfare are being felt in the region in general, but more significantly by Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. While the spike in the events was noticeable with exchange of missiles between Iran and Pakistan, the reports that Wagner Group is recruiting former Afghan soldiers for Ukraine theatre, and reports that recruitments are ongoing for the Axis of Resistance, while Nepal has revealed that hundreds of its nationals have joined Russian forces and are fighting in Ukraine fronts.  On the other hand, there are obvious signs of increased recruitment campaign for the local terrorist groups. When seen in strategic terms, such buildups are harbinger of impending kinetic conflicts, a challenge for which we must prepare.

The looming threat of digital aggression against Pakistan is already visible on the horizons of the 5GW and is ruthlessly being inflicted on us in several forms. A national effort is needed to defend ourselves against this multi-directional threat. With the inception of the new government, there are high hopes that the nation will be synergized against the afore-mentioned threats. (Tariq Lodhi)

Note: Former Director General Intelligence Bureau Tariq Lodhi has given his valuable views and comments in ‘Comments & Analysis’.