Tariq A. Lodhi

Foreword

1. That Pakistan is slipping into the mid-current of the Hybrid Warfare, or the Grey
   Zone Warfare, is no figment of mind. With the several centers of Grey Zone Warfare
   emerging on the global surface, that include Middle-East, Western Asia and Eastern
   Europe, and after using assassinations, maritime or marine sabotage, and use of
   loitering ammunition, there is a clear coordinated upsurge in terrorist attacks by
   proxies. India is conspicuous by its more overt involvement in this clandestine warfare,
   now in another level, where it has established a firm collaboration with the Hostile
   Intelligence Agencies (HIAs) of the its allies to conduct coordinated Hybrid Attacks in the
   neighbouring countries. The several incidents and their projected trajectory, are clarion
   indicators that we are at the threshold of State of War, and will need to shape our
   actions, domestically and externally to avert it as expeditiously as possible.
   Israeli Drones Attack on Iran (19-Apr-2024)
2. After a suspenseful wait of six days since Iran had launched its drone-wave attack
   on Israel, the Israeli’s struck back by delivering aerial armament into Iran on night
   between 18-19-April-2024. Iranian sources claim that 3 x drones were detected entering
   Iranian air-space and were effectively neutralized. According to initial reports,
   explosion noises were heard in and around Isfahan, Iran. It is believed that Israel had
   struck Central Isfahan Airport, housing several Air Force components, its vicinity, where
   Missiles Production Facilities, Nuclear Facilities housing Chinese built small nuclear
   research reactor, and a Military Base are situated, with airborne weapons, including
   Missiles. Israel is said to have used missiles against targets in Iraq and some radar
   facilities in Syria as-well. As Iran remains ambiguous about the target or damages if any,
   there are no immediate reports of any casualties. International Atomic Energy Agency
   (IAEA) in Iran has however announced that all Iranian sites are unharmed and were not
   hit by the Israeli attack. This attack was anticipated as USA and others had hinted at a
   24-hours advance expectation. USA had refrained from supporting this attack, while
   retaining its right to defend Israel if the war escalates. Civilian aircraft had been
   diverted as the Air-Space was restricted, ostensibly at short notice, but same has been
   Page 2 of 7
   restored. Analysts believed that Israel had to respond to the Iranian attack in order to
   maintain its standing and ensuring its deterrence value in the region.
   Operation Honest Promise (13-Apr-2024)
3. The Iranian attack on Israel under code name Operation Honest Promise, finally
   took place on 13-Apr-2024, late night, lasing atleast eight-hours, when 170-drones
   Shahed-136, 30-Cruise Missiles, 120-Ballistic Missiles, were fired at Netayim Air Base,
   and Negev Desert, while about 350-rockets, from Iran, Yemen, Lebanese Hezbollah, and
   Iraq, were also launched aganst Israel. Unverified reports suggest that Khorramshahar,
   Sejjil, Ghadr and Emad Ballistic Missiles, and Paveh and Fattah (Hypersonic) Cruise
   Missiles were launched from Iran against Israel. The drones were launched an hour in
   advance, and were followed by the missiles. The weaponry had to traverse through
   Jordanian and Iraqi airspaces, where ion ground, American troops and assts were
   housed. Israel alleges that in tandem with Iranian fire, some weapons were also fired
   from Iranian proxies in Iran and Yemen.
4. Iran had already given a 72-hour notice to neighbouring states and USA, and had
   restricted the airspace. This early warning had literally stripped Iran of any element of
   surprise. This notice was more liberal than the one given in case of Iran’s retaliatory
   attack on USA bases in Iraq that included Ain Al-Asad Air Base, where only 10-hour
   notice was provided. The recent notice was in-league with the USA Intelligence
   estimates, on whose basis, USA had positioned its maritime assets strategically in
   Mediterranean. UK’s Air Craft, operating in tandem with UK and French Air Force,
   deployed in the area were also on stand-by to intercept any incoming threat from
   Iranian side, it infringed on their jurisdictional airspace. Israel used Iron-Dome Air
   Defence System, David’s Sling, using Stunner and SkyCeptor interceptors, and Arrow-1
   and Arrow-2 systems to intercept the barrage of drones and missiles or rockets. Israel
   had also used its IDF deploying F-35 and F-15 aircraft. USA shot down 70-drones and 3-
   ballisitc missiles heading towards Israel.
   Comments
5. Analysts believe that the Iranian attack was aimed to re-establish deterrence
   value in the region. Critics say that Iran genuinely does not want escalation, and would
   rather address its own sliding economic and social issues at home. They argue that if
   Page 3 of 7
   Iranian missiles were to be armed with nuclear warheads, it could paint a doomsday
   scenario.
6. Iran has been successful in increasing its own strategic depth by breaching the
   strategic buffer that Israel had created around it. The loopholes in Israel’s defence
   shield, would bolster morale of other countries of the region, who are in process of
   acquiring modern weaponry. Increase in Iranian strategic depth, or widening of its
   protective strategic shield also means that China’s assets, both in Pakistan and Iran, have
   been added with another layer of protection. This development should be a morale
   booster for Pakistan, who should feel much more confident in tackling the oncoming
   Hybrid-Threats against Pakistan and its associated Chinese interests. We need to see
   the present developments in context of the recent incidents, including own domestic
   spike in terrorism, rise in IS-K, TTP, BLA terrorist activity in the region, and its links with
   terror-related incidents in CARs and Russia, that have common denominators, like
   Afghan based terror-outfits, anti-Chinese approach, etc., and look for developing
   consensus through available forums or evolving exclusive forums with common
   interests, or perhaps a common-wealth like arrangement amongst states, that have been
   pushed by the HIAs on one side of the strategic fence.
7. There has been no official confirmation of the attack by Israel so far. This will
   provide formal plausible denial ability to Iran to ignore this attack. In face of this
   plausible deniability, Iran may not respond back, and leave the Presidential warning as a
   warning only. The attack by Israel was a limited response, and may not constitute as
   war. The attack was to demonstrate Israel’s outreach and ability to strike Iran. This also
   constitutes a message for other states in the region, that Israel has the ability to reach
   long-distances. If Israel chooses to carry out a major kinetic reprisal attack, or escalate
   it, Iran may decide to unbridle its enrichment program and accelerate its effort to
   develop nuclear capabilities.
8. Earlier, the Hamas wave rocket attacks had exposed the vulnerabilities of the
   Israeli Iron-Dome Air Defence Systems, and now, Iran deluging the Israeli Air Defence
   Systems has managed to pro open the iron shield over Israel. The attack, which Iran
   justifies as an act of self-defence, probably has degraded Israel’s image of invincibility to
   Iranian assaults. With a back-ground, where Israel could have possibly suffered a
   Page 4 of 7
   massive intelligence failure by not being able to learn about Hamas plans for 07-Oct2023 attack, a weakness in Israeli defence could be bad for its image in the region. With
   this demonstration of loop-holes in Israeli Air Defence, if several waves of drones or
   missiles were to be launched from different directions, they could spell disaster for
   Israel, and force it into an all-out war. This all out-war is something, Israels security
   guarantor, USA does not want, atleast not now.
9. More than 34,000 Palestinians have lost their lives, while atleast 77,000 have
   been injured, besides the whole of Gaza has been turned into rubble, the whole Gaza
   population being internally displaced, as starvation and hunger stalks the land, that is
   persistently and indiscriminately being bombed by IDF. Israel has lost about 1,163 of its
   nationals in the conflict. Unfortunately, the Iran-Israel direct engagement has further
   pushed Israel-Hamas conflict in background in the world media. The Israeli attack on
   Iran has also drowned any protesting noises about the Palestinian membership of UNO,
   that was vetoed by USA on 19-Apr-2024. By all means, the direct Iran-Israel conflict is
   an extension of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
10. While Israel’s invincibility has been compromised, Iran has been successful to
    demonstrate its increased military capabilities, atleast for this round of battles. Though
    Iran has a clear intent to avoid escalation, yet it is not in its hands alone. Israel’s
    strategic moves will also play an important role in avoiding the escalation.
11. Iran has probably carried out this well coordinated attack to restore its public
    morale which was being undermined by rising numbers of terrorist incidents and
    stalemate in Palestine. Iran therefore has succeeded in diverting its public’s attention
    and focusing it towards the rising war-mania, which is likely to defuse the simmering
    unrest, particularly in Siestan e-Balochistan.
12. It appears that, all this while, Iran has been using back-channel diplomacy to
    hedge against any spill-over or escalation. (In its attack in response to attack on Gen
    Qasem Soleimani, 07-Jan-2020, at Ain Al-Asad Air Base, Iran had shot down one of its
    own passenger aircraft, killing all 100-passengers.) Iran clearly has held-back any
    serious attack by its proxies, for the next round, if any.
    Page 5 of 7
13. The Iranian attack on Israel, and retaliatory attack by Israel (19-Apr-2024)
    clearly indicates intent of engaging into a limited war only and avoiding any chance of an
    all-out war. Israel, and its allies understand that any serious Israeli retaliation would
    offer a plausible justification for Iran to increase its Uranium Enrichment program, and
    to go-nuclear. However, in case of Israel’s retaliatory attack, more hardline position by
    Iran may be expected. Any miscalculation with either warring party could be disastrous,
    and could ignite the whole region. The Iranian attack on Israel, and Israel’s responding
    attack, has, momentarily morphed the Hybrid-Warfare into a conventional or overtwarfare, as according to one analyst; the clandestine war has come out of the shadows.
14. The spectre of a major Cyber-Attack by Israel against Iran looms large, bringing
    back memories of the STUXNET striking Natanz Nuclear enrichment Lab in 2010, and
    Cyber Attack on Iranian Nuclear Program at Natanz, where Power House was partially
    damaged by Israeli Cyber Attack in Jul-2021. Various oil and shipping facilities have also
    been targeted by Israel in the past.
15. A military parade in Iran on 17-Apr-2024, showcased its arsenal that was laying
    in stock, for a potential warfare with Israel. As Iranian President, on 16-Apr-2024,
    warned Israel about any further retaliation to Iranian reprisal, while, probably unknown
    to Iran, Israel was planning its attack on Isfahan.
16. There was a marked increase in the propaganda in sync with the rising tensions,
    where several narratives were being floated by pro-Israel and anti-Israel lobbies. A new
    controversy has been built, which suggests that Iran has not really done any practical
    step for Palestine, instead it has only demonstrated the range of some of its missile, after
    having a tacit understanding with Israel through middle parties. Iran has been once
    again accused of employing Child Soldiers in Syrian conflict. According to a report
    published by a USA based, NGO, Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), Iran is
    recruiting Afghan and Pakistani people, including children below age of 15-years, to
    fight in Syria. These children are recruited on promise of providing documentation for
    Afghan refugees in Iran, residencies, financial returns, Visiting facilities to the kith and
    kin to Iran and Iraq for pilgrimage, and stipends, besides burial facilities in some of the
    highly revered grave-yards. The Afghans are deployed with Fatemiyoun Brigade,
    whereas Pakistanis are deployed with Zeniabiyoun Brigade in Syria. Thousand have
    Page 6 of 7
    been reported killed since 2013, while the fighters are being rotated, and veterans are
    being inserted back in respective countries, fully trained and motivated. Pakistan has
    proscribed Liwa al-Zeniabiyoun, but there is need to remain more vigilant, and consider
    banning all the terrorists’ entities operating from Afghanistan or Iran, prejudicial to
    Pakistan’s national interests.
17. Iran on the other hand, was confronted with serious Hybrid-Warfare attacks, in
    form of terrorist attacks, that included fomenting unrest in Siestan-e-Balochistan
    province of Iran, which, mirrored into increased attacks in Balochistan province in
    Pakistan. This further accentuated the risk for Pakistan getting singed by this raging
    Hybrid-Warfare fires. Iran intensified its counter-terrorism efforts across Iran, nabbing
    hundreds of ISIS suspects and arms and ammunition. This effort also had another
    dimension, since the IS-K attack in Russia on 22-Mar-2024, had necessitated a heavy
    hand sweep against ISIS elements in the region.
18. Iran has first-hand knowledge of IS-K, Ansar ul-Furqan and Jaish ul-Adl terrorists
    nurturing in Afghanistan, and has foiled attempts of IS-K members entering Iran from
    Afghanistan, it remains weary of terrorist threat from Afghan side. Turkey is also
    conducting a crackdown against ISIS and has rounded up a large number of suspects in
    recent days. Iran is firmly screening Afghans, and is repatriating thousands back to
    Afghanistan, equalling to those repatriated from Pakistan. Reports suggest that former
    Afghan ANDSF personnel, who had fled to Iran after Doha Agreement in 2020, are being
    coerced into engaging with Proxies or face being deported.
19. On the other hand, Israeli proxies have stepped up their attacks in Iran’s Siestan
    e-Balochistan, which is also having its ripple effect in Pakistan’s Balochistan. It seems
    that the proxies of HIAs, such as BLA etc., are being activated to maintain pressures on
    Pakistan through increased and coordinated terrorist activities, as Pakistan continues to
    improve its relations with Iran, and Saudi Arabia, and struggles to wriggle out of
    financial marshlands.
20. With the Israeli attack on Iranian soil, the conflict has come knocking at our
    neighbourhood, and requires our utmost vigilance, lest our enemies try to exploit the
    situation, and unleash another round of terrorist activities through their proxies. We
    also should increase our maritime surveillances, particularly along Balochistan coast.
    Page 7 of 7
    We may not ignore the fact that the HIAs sponsored terrorists had only a few weeks ago
    tried to bling us by attacking on PNS Siddiqui Pakistan Navy Air Base. Exposing the
    ulterior motives. Putting two-and-two together, and in aftermath of 03-Apr-2024
    terrorist attack, Iran has announced modernising its Chabahar Konark Airport on
    priority.
21. It had become evident that Iran would retaliate against the 01-Apr-2024-
    Damascus attack, in a manner and time of its choice. It appeared that there was a
    general acceptance for the legitimacy for Iran’s reactive attack on Israel. Iran threatened
    that the Israeli embassies worldwide were now unsafe, meaning that they were
    vulnerable to Iranian reprisal. Iran was well aware of the coalition of western countries
    who would lend support to Israel in case of increased levels of warfare, and noted that
    these countries had not condemned Israeli attack on Iran’s diplomatic premises. Since
    American-made weapons and aircraft were used for the attack on Damascus diplomatic
    mission, Iran considers USA equally responsible for this act.
22. Israel had been taking preventive measures against possible Iranian attack, that
    included scrambling GPS signals, updating their war plans and introducing better
    coordinated defensive systems, including C-Iron Dome defence system. Curiously, in
    wake of the 19-Apr-2024 attack by Israel, absence of any air-raid warning or directions,
    in Israel indicate that there is tacit understanding that Iran will not be attacking Israel in
    order to contain the conflict.
23. USA and its allies, under Operation Prosperity Guardian are effectively preventing
    Houthi attacks on the maritime traffic in and around red Sea. EU and UK have expended
    ordinances in this cause. The diversion of Iranian weapons meant for Houthis, to
    Ukraine by USA is also seen as another proof of American complicity in the attacks
    against Iranian assets. Lately, slapping of sanctions against several Iranian entity’s
    further places Iran in a challenging position. Israel had called for sanctions against
    Iranian Missile program. It is believed that in the retaliatory attack by Israel on 19-Apr2024, it had targeted facilities related to Missile Programs in city of Isfahan.

The author is former Director General Intelligence Bureau, Pakistan