Saima Khan
Pakistan’s struggle against militant groups intensified dramatically throughout 2023, marking a year of profound challenges in national security. Pakistan witnessed a staggering 70% surge in militant attacks by the year’s end, coupled with an alarming 81% rise in fatalities compared to the previous year. In absolute terms, 645 militant attacks claimed 976 lives and caused injuries to 1354 individuals, contrasting sharply with 2022’s figures of 380 attacks, 539 deaths, and 836 injuries. This alarming escalation indicates a deteriorating security landscape across Pakistan, necessitating a comprehensive reevaluation of counterterrorism strategies and policies.
1. 2023 Ends with 70% Increase in Militant Attacks, 81% Rise in Deaths: PICSS Report
Pakistan experienced a significant surge in militant activity in 2023, according to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS). The year concluded with a 70% increase in militant attacks and an 81% rise in deaths compared to 2022. Specifically, 645 militant attacks were recorded, resulting in 976 fatalities and 1354 injuries, compared to 380 attacks, 539 deaths, and 836 injuries in 2022. This dramatic rise highlights the deteriorating security situation in the country.
2. Monthly Trends and Long-term Patterns
The average number of militant attacks per month rose sharply from 32 in 2022 to 54 in 2023. This monthly average is the highest since 2015. There was a consistent decline in militant attacks from 2015 to 2019, with monthly averages dropping to thirteen attacks. Pakistan has seen a consistent yearly increase in militant activities. In the first five months of 2024 alone, the monthly average increased to eighty-two attacks, compared to fifty-two attacks per month in 2023.
3. Regional Breakdown of Terrorism in 2023
- Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP): KP, particularly its mainland, witnessed the highest number of militant attacks in 2023. The region saw 423 attacks, resulting in 621 deaths (including 307 security personnel) and 980 injuries. Within KP, the mainland experienced 237 attacks with 336 fatalities and 591 injuries. This represents an 85% increase in attacks in mainland KP. The erstwhile FATA (tribal districts) saw 186 attacks, leading to 285 deaths and 389 injuries.
- Balochistan: The province faced 170 militant attacks in 2023, a 65% increase from 2022. These attacks resulted in 285 deaths and 388 injuries.
- Sindh: Sindh experienced a 40% rise in attacks, with thirty-five incidents leading to thirty-nine deaths and thirty-five injuries.
- Punjab: Punjab saw an unprecedented rise in militant activity, with fourteen attacks reported in 2023, up from three in 2022. These attacks resulted in twenty deaths and fourteen injuries.
- Other Regions: Azad Kashmir, Islamabad, and Gilgit-Baltistan each reported one militant attack in 2023.
4. Incidents in Early 2024
- May 2024: Pakistan experienced a prominent increase in militant activities in May 2024, with a 12% rise in attacks, resulting in a 29% increase in deaths and a 30% rise in injuries compared to April. PICSS reported eighty-six attacks, leading to ninety fatalities and eighty-seven injuries. Among the deceased were forty-eight civilians, twenty-two security forces personnel, and twenty militants. The injured included fifty-eight civilians and twenty-nine security forces personnel. In response, security forces conducted numerous operations, killing seventy individuals, including sixty-two militants and eight security forces personnel. Overall, eighty-two militants were killed during May 2024, the highest monthly total since March 2017.
June 2024: There was a 20% decline in militant attacks compared to May, resulting in fewer deaths and injuries. PICSS reported sixty-nine attacks leading to sixty deaths and sixty-five injuries. The arrest of TTP commander Nasrullah alias Molvi Mansoor marked a significant counterterrorism success.
5. First Half of 2024 Overview
The first five months of 2024 witnessed 409 militant attacks, leading to 414 deaths and 474 injuries. Compared to the same period in 2023, there was an 83% increase in militant attacks. However, the increase in fatalities was 16%, and the number of injured individuals declined by 23%. These statistics indicate a heightened frequency of attacks but also reflect improved emergency response
6. Impact on Security Personnel and Civilians
The data highlights the heavy toll on civilians and security personnel:
- Security Personnel: Frequent targets of militant attacks, with significant fatalities among police and army personnel. In June 2024, 33 security forces personnel were killed.
- Civilians: Civilians suffered heavily, with targeted attacks based on ethnic identities, particularly in Balochistan and KP. Workers, coal miners, and polio workers were among those targeted.
Terrorism Trends in Second Quarter of 2024
The recent report on violence in Pakistan highlights several key trends and incidents from the first and second quarters of 2024:
- Decreased Violence in Balochistan: There was a significant reduction in violence in Balochistan, with fatalities dropping by 46%, from 178 in the first quarter to ninety-six in the second quarter.
- Increased Violence in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP): Punjab and KP saw an increase in violence. Fatalities in Punjab rose by 13%, and in KP by 31%, compared to the previous quarter.
- Impact on Civilians, Government Officials, and Security Personnel: Civilians, government officials, and security personnel accounted for 62% of all fatalities, a much higher proportion than the 38% of fatalities among outlaws.
- Targeted Attacks Based on Ethnic Identities: In Balochistan and KP, twenty-four workers were targeted due to their ethnic identities. Additionally, four coal miners and two polio workers were killed.
- Sectarian Violence: Sectarian violence claimed the lives of eleven individuals.
A summarized snapshot of the terrorism trends in Pakistan
| Year/Period | Key Trends | Regional Breakdown |
| 2023 | – 70% increase in militant attacks – 81% rise in deaths – 62% surge in wounded | Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP):423 attacks, 621 deaths, 980 injuries Balochistan:170 attacks, 285 deaths, 388 injuries Punjab:14 attacks, 20 deaths |
| Early 2024 | Continued increase in monthly averages of attacks | May 2024:86 attacks, 90 deaths, 87 injuries June 2024:69 attacks, 60 deaths, 65 injuries |
| Second Quarter 2024 | – Decreased violence in Balochistan (46% decrease in fatalities) – Increased violence in Punjab and KP | Balochistan:96 fatalities in Q2 (down from 178 in Q1) Punjab: Increased fatalities KP: Increased fatalities |
7. Counter-Terrorism Efforts
Despite the surge in militant attacks, Pakistani security forces intensified their operations, foiling numerous attacks. In 2023, there was a 74% increase in security actions against militants, resulting in the deaths of 612 suspected militants and the arrest of 625. The aggressive response continued into 2024, with significant militant fatalities in May and June.
8. Prospects of Pakistan seeking the Afghan Taliban’s help against TTP
The prospects of Pakistan seeking the Afghan Taliban’s help against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) offer a pragmatic yet contentious approach to counterterrorism. Given the shared enmity between the Afghan Taliban and ISIS-K, and the U.S. administration’s consideration of cooperation with the Afghan Taliban to track ISIS-K, Pakistan could utilize similar dynamics against the TTP. The Afghan Taliban, now in power, have both the motive and the capacity to tackle groups that threaten their control, including the TTP. Meaningful engagement the Taliban could provide Pakistan with crucial intelligence and operational support, potentially disrupting TTP’s cross-border activities. However, this strategy is fraught with challenges like historical distrust between Pakistan and the Taliban. Additionally, any cooperation must be carefully structured with the carrot as Pakistan is the breadbasket of Afghanistan. Thus, while the potential for collaboration exists, it requires a balanced and strategic diplomatic effort to be effective.
Conclusion
The data from 2023 and early 2024 depict a challenging security landscape in Pakistan, with fluctuating levels of violence across different regions. While certain areas like Balochistan have shown improvements, others like KP and Punjab have experienced a surge in militant activities. The ongoing efforts of security forces, coupled with the need for more coherent policies and enhanced counterterrorism capacities, remain crucial in addressing the persistent threat of militancy in Pakistan. The heightened response by security forces, as evidenced by the high number of militant fatalities, indicates a proactive approach to countering the escalating threat. However, the sustained increase in attacks highlights the need for continuous and adaptive strategies to ensure long-term security and stability.
The author is a researcher associated with The Strategic Brief
