Muhammad Attaullah Khan
Israel launched military operation against Iran under the code name “Rising Lion” on June 13 , 2025 which did not catch many by surprise. Israel has been uncompromising in its enforcement of a zero uranium enrichment and even zero nuclear policy for Iran — an objective that lies at the core of its national security doctrine. Despite several rounds of US-Iran negotiations over last two months, including the last month’s fifth round that ended without progress, Iran has not conceded on this critical point. US President Donald Trump stated that he told Iran it should reach a deal within 60 days. Now, as per statement of President Trump, more than 60 days have passed without an agreement, allegedly due to Tehran’s unwillingness to abandon its nuclear program, or at least scale back enrichment and accept stricter oversight.
While Israel’s actions were expected given its stated stance on US-Iran nuclear negotiations, because, Israel from day one has been opposing these talks and termed the same as an Iranian ploy to gaim time. The US administration has officially declared that it does not support further military escalation in the region, however, has categorically made it clear that it will never accept a nuclear Iran. Although, US is so far trying to distance it away from Israeli actions inside Iran, however, it became clear after President Trump mentioned the other day that Washington was fully briefed in advance of the Israeli strike and the Israeli leadership was able to secure a green light and clear commitment of US support. This contradiction has prompted questions about whether America tacitly approved the operation, or even encouraged it, and participated in the deception plan that misled the Iranian calculation, despite public claims to the contrary.
WHERE IRAN WENT WRONG:
Iran has long boasted of its military strength and ability to deter threats and retaliate against them. Since the era of President Ahmadi Nejad , it has been vowing to ” wipe out” Israel, and, this brinkmanship on the part of Ahmadi Nejad kept Israel and its allies on toes. Here the main question at that time which still carries weight is whether and how far is Iran prepared to go in escalating the confrontation with Israel and does it had the capability to sustain a high-intensity conflict? Iran successfully convinced its allies in the shape of Iranian backed groups in Iraq, Baath party in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and Houthis in Yemen that it has the capability and will to corner Israel through these groups . Iranian General Qassim Sulemani’s killing by US missiles in Iraq further strengthened resolve of Iranian backed tentacles in Middle East. However, while operating through these proxies( a common name coined by some journalistic circles) ,Iran kept withdrawing itself after October 07 , 2023 attack of Hamas inside Israel. Israel unleashed its forces upon harmless people of Gaza, and, simultaneously started killing Palestinians in West Bank, used full force to eliminate command , control and infrastructure of Hezbollah in Lebanon, kept bombing at Houthis in collaboration with US and forced Iranian backed Bashar Assad to flee to Moscow. While all this was happening, Iran kept moving on backfoot while apparently ditching its allies in the shape of Hamas, Hezbollah, Zenibioun Brigade , Syria and Houthis. They were left at the mercy of Israel to do whatever with them it liked. This policy of leaving its sympathisers at the mercy of Israel became counter productive because it encouraged Israel to use more force against these Iranian backed groups plus it disheartened the second and third tier leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah. Apparently , Iran’s policy of minimising support to these groups when they needed it during the most crucial time seemed pragmatic. Iranian government by gradually leaving the ground in Middle East tried to hold an olive branch to US and Western governments, in a bid to convey that it is no more interested in backing these proxies, as well as it chose to show that it is avoiding direct conflict with Israel. However, while avoiding war with Israel, the war kept chasing Iran and now it is facing bigger war at its own soil. Israel and its Western allies as well as some Arab sympathisers are considering it a first major victory that they have succeeded in shifting the battle ground from heart of Middle East to Iranian soil.
OPTIONS AVAILABLE TO IRAN:
At the moment, Israel has succeeded in fulfilling its dream of ruling the skies of Iran. IDF is in total control of situation and Iranian air defence has totally failed to show any worthwhile resistance or damage to invading Airforce of a country which is more than 2000 kilometres away from Iran. However, Iran still has tools at its disposal. One of the more dangerous would be a return to asymmetric warfare and covert operations, similar to tactics used in the 1980s, when Iranian-linked groups targeted US and Israeli interests across the region. Probably, Israel has also sensed this danger and it is one of the reasons that Israel has temporarily closed embassies across the world considered to be at risk of reprisal. In one of the latest incidents, two days ago a church was attacked in Damascus wherein 22 Christian worshippers were killed indicating an increasing threat to lives of Christian minorities in Syria.
IMPLICATIONS FOR REGION:
The Arab Gulf states find themselves in a highly precarious position. Geographically and economically linked to Iran, they are deeply vulnerable to the fallout of escalating tensions. Their top priority remains to avoid being dragged into the conflict, either as a battleground or as an indirect target of retaliation. A regional war would pose severe risks to the security of their territories and populations, critical infrastructure and economic prosperity.
Thus, beyond the fundamental issue of security, there are also deep implications for economic prosperity and development. Gulf economies are fundamentally tied to stability, open trade routes and investor confidence, and any disruption, whether from attacks or threats to energy infrastructure, could have immense repercussions. Already, in response to US bombing of Natanz, Fordow and Isphahan nuclear facilities which are underground, the Iranian Military has responded by targeting US military base in Qatar which although didn’t cause any human losses but it has escalated the conflict.
IMPLICATIONS FOR PAKISTAN:
Pakistan is next door neighbour and brotherly country to Iran. Any harm or instability in Iran has direct negative repercussions for Pakistan. Pakistan has been working hard over last few weeks to help de-escalate situation in collaboration with KSA, Turkiye, Qatar and UAE.At the same time Pakistan has extended all sorts of diplomatic help to Iran at UNSC and supports Iranian ambitions to have a peaceful civilian nuclear program according to international law. Pakistan supports the sovereignty of Iran and opposes any foreign aggression in brother Islamic country. However, in case the war expands between Israel and Iran , it will have far reaching consequences for all neighbours of Iran including Pakistan. In case , Israel moves ahead with its stated plans to bomb Tehran and eliminate its senior leadership it will create chaos and instability in Iran and a large number of Iranian refugees can pour into neighbouring countries including Pakistan. It will also open the way for foreign intelligence operatives and other terrorist groups to enter Baluchistan. Israeli attacks on Bander Abbass are also a threat to the nearby Pakistani port in Gawadar where it will negatively affect international shipping heading towards Gawadar in case Israel keeps repeating targeting Bander Abbass. In case Iran takes a step ahead and start making use of missiles on a larger scale to inflict more damage to Israel, an infuriated Israel may resort to make use of Nuclear weapons against Iran to wind up the war quickly, it will be a nightmare not only for Iran but will also expose Pakistan to nuclear radiation plus it may prompt our Strategic Planners to get strategic weapons in ready position pre-empting any mischief from Indian side. If Israel and its allies go ahead and try to change the regime in Tehran by using air power , it will set very negative precedent negating all international laws and norms and will pave the way for other countries to follow this suit. It will once again derail foreign investment in all developing countries including Pakistan as investors confidence will be shattered. A regime change or to change policies of Iranian government by use of force will limit the sovereignty of all regional states including Pakistan. Iran is meanwhile hinting at closure of Hormuz Strait which has given upwards push to prices of oil worldwide and a country like Pakistan cannot afford the economic fall out of price hike which may multiply the economic hardships of people in Pakistan.
RECOMMENDATIONS:
Pakistan government needs to urgently take following steps to put an end to this expanding chaos in its neighbourhood:
a- Pakistan shall keep pressing for peaceful resolution of crisis as recently stressed by OIC foreign ministers conference at Istanbul.
b- Pakistani shall make use of military and civil diplomacy and use its influence through Pakistani lobbies in UK and US to convince them to help arrange a ceasefire and make efforts that nuclear dialogue between US and Iran which is alread suspended be resumed forthwith.
c- Pakistan shall take KSA, Qatar and Turkiye into confidence so that Pakistan and these three countries shall exert pressure upon US that it shall restrain Israel to forcefully change regime in Tehran and let people of Iran decide their fate.
d- Meanwhile, Pakistan shall convey Iran through diplomatic channels to open backdoor diplomacy channels with Israel and US through Russia and China so that Israel and its allies could be convinced that their ” stated” goals of “wiping out Iran” will serve no purpose and that Iranian ambitions of being nuclear can be handled in peaceful manner as well.
e- Meanwhile, some positive developments are on horizon as President Trump has indicated today that Israel and Iran are nearly agreeing to a ceasefire which shall be welcomed by Pakistan. If this announcement by President Trump materialises , then it will be big positive development in region and will pave the way for much needed stability in Middle East specifically and in the entire region as a whole.
The author is former Joint Director General, Intelligence Bureau and geo-political analyst.
