Lt.Gen (r) Asad Durrani

In the late 1950s, Mao Zedong’s books were available on the streets of Anarkali for
two rupees a piece. Maybe that’s the reason some of us, then students in the nearby
Government College, were tempted to buy them. No idea why his famous red book
did not make much impression on me, but the one “On Contradiction” did – even
though it was so convoluted that for someone trying to absolve a bachelor’s degree
in science, following its thread was more complex than chemically analysing a soldier.
I did that a couple of years later after donning an army uniform and got it published
in a military journal to earn a princely honorarium of twenty-five rupees.
Later in the service one was often reminded of what I thought the great man had in
mind. While evaluating threats, looked for contradictions in the enemy’s system of
forces – and in its social fabric. When the Soviet Union collapsed, I was heading the
ISI. Analysing the causes came with the job and so did the decision that the mission
was too critical to be entrusted to any single person or a group. Most of the
conclusions had plenty in common and were thus embedded in my memory.
That the Empire went down the tube while its colossal military machine and the
impressive range of nuclear weapons merely stood by twiddling their thumbs, raised
no eyebrows. All states are a bit oligarchic – must have heard the maverick Bernie
Sanders reiterate it only the other day – but that in the Soviet-Russia, since the
system had a stranglehold over public opinion, hardly anyone knew that the
Oligarchs were minting money under state patronage. It indeed contributed to the
decline, as did the unbridled power of the Nomenklatura; a select group chosen by
the permanent establishment (the communist party) that had the ultimate say in the
national affairs.
Another cause is so common that many of us accept it as the fait accompli. Some in
fact find it of immense value for a nation’s legacy. Bavaria was bankrupt but King
Ludwig the Second mortgaged his country to construct castles that count amongst
the best in the world. Kremlin spent its meagre resources to build Underground
Stations that attracted more art lovers than the passengers. And before one forgets;
in modern times no other country “disappeared” people more constructively than did
the Russians. Siberia was sparsely populated and needed slave labour to tap its vast
potential. Dissidents just happened to come in handy. The problem was that the
people so incarcerated were simply warning of the impending meltdown. With them
gone there was no one to sound the alarm and the hired hands applauded the
Empire all the way to the train-wreck. Muscular approach to suppress domestic
unrest was always a bad idea and has often resulted in state implosion. In the
Subcontinent, the precedent set by us in 1971 was followed by Bangladesh and
Nepal, but mercifully their vibrant civil societies saved the countries before the
demagogues did them in.

The Soviets also rode roughshod over its satellites. Uprisings in Hungry and
Czechoslovakia were ruthlessly put down. With NATO on its western borders and
China in the east no longer an ally in ideology, who in Kremlin in the right frame of
mind would have invaded Afghanistan! Learnt many years later that Brezhnev took
that decision against the military’s advice. It didn’t take Moscow long to realise the
blunder but the errors of strategy being more difficult to correct, the one-man led
misadventure took many years before the occupation was rolled-back. Since success
has many fathers both the Afghans and we believed that the Duo had delivered the
coup de grâce. Be that as it may, the meltdown was so sudden and swift as if the
Empire had been hit by a Tsunami. Not sure when I first heard of the Imperial
Overstretch but in this case keeping pace with the West’s Star Wars clearly ran
Soviets out of steam.
The US now uncontested at the global pinnacle launched the New World Order. How
it conducted the 91 Gulf War indicated how it would follow-up. Saudi apprehensions
and the advice of its own CENTCOM Commander (Schwarzkopf) were ignored; the
UN was arm-twisted to bless the eviction of the Republican Guards from Kuwait; and
countries with extra cash – Germany, Japan, and indeed the Oil Kingdoms – were told
to pick up the tab. Thereafter, it became the norm. If the World Body provided a fig
leaf to an American project, well and good; otherwise, the Sole Superpower
bulldozed regardless. Consequently, the Upstart Empire took merely a decade before
it lost momentum. If it’s still alive and (virtually) kicking, even when down or out, it
was because it didn’t suffer from the range of contradictions that afflicted its former
rival. Assets like a decentralised structure, personal freedoms, absence of state
suppression, and most importantly participation of the populace, sustained its status.
What provides more confidence to the people in that system is the fact that one
didn’t have to belong to a dynasty to go up the ladder. Obama, Trump, and
Mamdani are a few illustrious examples. “Liberating individualistic energies
transformed America from the child and ward to the rival and guardian of Western
Europe”: so, surmised the historian husband and wife team, Will and Ariel Durant.
Many of us may regard the US as a greater evil than its late adversary but it still has
its wicked-wicked charms. Hollywood once ruled the screens — we skipped classes
to watch a good Western. Invention of jeans had a greater impact on human
civilisation than launching satellites in the space. And it turned out to be the only
power that — where the rest of the world along with its much-touted international
organisations and billions of citizens fired with humanitarianism failed — provided
some relief from the sub-human conditions in Gaza. Trump may utter inanities but
though fully cognisant that he would go back on them, all of us remain on the edge
till he fires his next verbal salvo

It’s up to us now to judge our own country on the good and bad standards set by
the two mightiest powers of the previous century. The following is one such attempt.
Pakistan has more than its shares of imbalances and incongruities: between the
military and the non-military; the state and the society; amongst the federating units;
rich and poor; some above and many below the law; and dissident movements in the
two western provinces acquiring a life of their own. In principle, the policies and
decisions, since they affect the well-being and the future of a nation, must be
brainstormed threadbare – and the golden rule for a meaningful discourse is due
deference to opposite views. If I recall correctly, it was in 2018 that some in this
business walked up to me and complained that on “freedom of expression” things
were now worse than under Zia. No wonder that the public debate has been
captured by the choir that claps and sings in unison behind the head qawwal.
Within the Armed Forces, Army is the predominant service. The need for
coordination with other two was starkly felt during the 1965 War. It led to the
creation of the Joint Services Headquarters that was tasked to do the needful. To
convince the Navy and the Airforce that they were an invaluable part of the whole,
adequate representation was ensured. The top post too was to be rotated amongst
the services – especially because the air and the naval arms were now acquiring
greater import in warfare. The four-day round in May this year provided the proof if
one was needed. The 27th Constitutional Amendment practically places them under
the command of the Army Chief.
On the external front, relations with Afghanistan were essentially to keep our western
flank as trouble free as possible. We even took on the ire of the two superpowers to
restore the era when the Afghans, even in their angrier moments, were sane enough
to act in their interest — and kept our western borders quiet when the eastern were
not. The present situation has landed the country in the jaws of a nutcracker. Fuelling
these divides would thus be India’s best option but Modi instead targeted our
military not only forging domestic unity – even if provisionally – but also going for
the strength instead of for our fault-lines. No one however can ensure that our
Achille’s Heal – the discord within – ceases to be an attractive target except we
working for the willing participation of the people. Amongst many other reasons,
devolution was therefore an accepted principle of public administration. We on the
other hand continued to concentrate power which is now firmly in the hands of one
man – the Army Chief.
Any wonder that our current hybrid regime has fallen short on most, if not all the
criteria for success. With a large number of suspects, both within and without, no
chance that we would know, who for example might have done the suicide act
outside the Supreme Court – or if like Murder on the Orient Express, all our nemeses
have joined hands against us! Worse still, it refuses to undertake any course

correction. Our only chance therefore lies in a successor dispensation that can forge
consensus, minimise external and internal cleavages, and accept that in contradiction
to its own teachings that the insurgencies and internal dissent were essentially
political affairs, the Pak military is spearheading the charge.
Having watched the Army’s botched ventures, from Coups to Kargil, many an old
soldier agreed that the civilian oversight was the lesser of all evils. The present bunch
of politicians however finds playing second fiddle to the man on the horseback a
better option.

Hum Hoay kafir to woh kafir musalman ho gya

As I was losing faith, the infidel became a believer

The author is former Director General Inter Service Intelligence (ISI)