TARIQ LODHI
- Gaza: Gaza Strip, 40-km x 17-km strip, including sea coast, and is governed by Hamas, whose members have not been allowed by Israel to go to West bank to attend assembly sessions. Gazans can only venture up to 5-miles into sea, which is strictly monitored by Israeli Navy, and are thus forced to only stay on coast. Gaza, about 140-Sq Miles Coastal pocket, inhibited by 2.3-million Palestinians, is surveilled 24/7 by Israeli drones, Digital / Electronic Surveillance, backed up by Satellite Monitoring. Extensive use of Predictive and Facial-Recognition technologies, besides AI, are also deployed for security and intelligence purposes against Palestinians.
- The fencing, surrounding Gaza, also known as Iron Wall, consists of three layers, along the 60-km boundary between Gaza and Israel; the earliest, a wire-mesh fence, Hoover-A was erected in 1996, then another outer Hoover-B, with barbed wires and alarm systems, was laid down in 2005 as follow-up action of Israel’s Operation Protective Edge that was meant to retaliate against missile, mortar and rocket attacks from Gaza in july-2014. This was subsequently further overlayed by a concrete wall, that was basically aimed to go deep inside the ground, to deter any tunnels. It was constructed with joint effort of USA, during Donald Trump’s rule, who had granted $320-million for these purposes, for the overall cost of $1.1-billion. USA had joined the project to develop technologies and systems to detect underground vibrations, and to identify tunnels. Donald Trump has shown his keen interest in developing such a High-Tech Iron Wall between Mexico and USA. The wall was to be considered as a Smart Fence, which was 6-meters (20-ft) high, dotted with Night-Vision and IR capable video cameras, razor wires, underground seismic sensors capable of picking up vibrations 200-feet below and raising alarm, while Remote-Controlled Machine Guns or Robo-Guns were mounted, in sync with cameras on the concrete towers at regular intervals. It is no wonder that Iran accused Israel of using such a remote-controlled machine gun in assassination of Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on 27-Nov-2020, in Tehran. The wall was completed in 2021, and IDF had assured the local Israelis that it was fool proof measure against any kind of infiltration. Six controlled entry and exit points were maintained in this fortification along Gaza.
- The conflict between Hamas and Israel erupted on early morning of 07-Oct-2023, when thousands of Hamas fighters, riding motorbikes, pickups, vans and cars, breached the fence along Gaza and entered in Israel, where they killed hundreds of Israelis and made hundreds hostage. (We have already given details of the incident in our earlier part of this document.)
- Hamas has demonstrated its ability to carry out multiple coordinated attacks, while also exhibited ability to conduct operations with minimum digital forewarning, keeping the operation simple, and using operational innovative means, without compromising on elements of surprise and speed.
- The operation appears to have been well planned, with excellent intelligence about the fencing and its defences by Israel. The surveillances of Israeli defence layouts appear to have been monitored by Hamas over a sufficiently long periods, and its weaknesses and strengths well understood. Some observers believe that Hamas had gleaned inside information of the IDF, including its battle or defensive operational, or exigency plans. Some observers go to the extent that these Israeli plans may have been compromised for some time, and were available to the master planners of the operation by Hamas, a reference towards Iran. Armed with this intelligence, Hamas was able to develop and execute an operation that offered circumnavigation of any obstacle of challenge during its conduct. Hamas launched thousands of rockets into Israel, that was an umbrella and a serious effective deception to allow its fighters to breach the Iron Wall. This view gains strength in light of the fact that Hamas, initially captured IDF’s local command and control center at Re’im inside Israel,that blinded the remaining elements and forward operational bases in the area, and disabled the command-and-control system as well as its sensors. Any rewriting of the compromised defence plans or strategies would require quite some time, and major changes in strategies across Israel; that may not be accomplished by the time the blitzkriegs halts or face cease-fire.
- It said that the Hamas attackers had helmet cameras, dash-cams on vehicles, and were even using drones to carry our photography, that was either being streamed to their improvised command center(s) or for social media.
- Hamas had been preparing for the attack since quite some times, and used its annual live fire exercises, called Strong Pillar, to conceal it in plain sight. Clips of these exercises were released on telegram channel in Sep-2023. replicas of border gates were shown being blown up, while the fighters were shown riding pickups and motorcycles, as well as house-to-house and hand-to-hand combat. The Fighters were using body-armour, and uniforms. Mock-up wall and installations, concrete-watch towers, and communication antennas, mock-up tanks, mock signboards of some Israeli settlements, etc, could be seen as being destroyed or neutralized in the exercise. Although Israel monitored the Telegram disseminations of the clip, it failed to take due cognizance, which led to its fatal defeat in the first round of the Hamas attack of 7-Oct-2023.
- Hamas had used typical Asymmetric innovation, by using abundantly available explosives to blow holes in the wall, that were widened by use of bulldozers. Hamas was successful to breach the Iron Wall at 80 places, while some of the holes were as large as 230-ft wide, through which, using Swarming Tactics, thousands of Hamas fighters riding pickups and motorcycles poured unopposed into Israel.
- The Robo-Guns and cameras, were destroyed using commercially available drones, that dropped grenades and charges on these and disabled them successfully.
- Hamas Snipers targeted the exposed Amo-boxes of the Robo-Guns and detonated them, while quite a few Hamas fighters sailed across the wall slung under motorised hang-gliders. Hamas had been earlier using hang gliders to occasionally violate the wall for provoking Israeli IDF, and to make them immune to such an activity in future. Seemingly, their strategy did work out effectively on 7-Oct-2023.
- Hamas fighters had also captured an Israeli Tank, that had arrived to block their entry. Hamas fighters also immediately destroyed radar sites, and radio towers in the area, and attacked forward army bas close to Zikim, which was as operational hub.
- Extent of planning and precision was exposed when accurate maps of the targets, routes etc., were found on bodies of some killed Hamas fighters. Atleast 1,500 bodies of fighters have been reported by IDF, though their locations continue to remain ambiguous.
- It is believed that Hamas was being provisioned from its allies abroad, including armed proxies of Iran, as well as Hezbollah. Financing, intelligence, logistics, training etc. was also being provided by these allies. Pro-Israel countries are pointing fingers towards Iran as being the patron, but do not offer any evidence, except citing statements by Iranian leadership.
- The exercises, and several other non-publicised rehearsals were used to deceive Israel’s prying eyes, and all the participants were told that this exercise is being carried out to attack West Bank, that is ruled by Hamas’s bitter opponents.
- Hamas had effectively remained below the technology levels in executing the operation, thus added its stealth effect. But at the same time, it used extensive reliance on technical means for capturing the images for later social media blitz. Even now, they are keeping radio silence and are not allowing any of their electronic signatures that could be intercepted by Israel or the US Navy’s floating monitoring station.
- According to some sections of the media, Hamas attackers had managed to destroy several tanks, armoured vehicles at the forward bases they had captured for a short while, and also had driven away some of them. The speed and surprise of the attack by Hamas compelled IDF to deviate from any of its exigency plans and to undertake a knee-jerk reaction of resorting to air attacks, and conducting a very general operation on ground, that delayed any re-enforcement or mobilization on-ground for three vital days.
- In, what Israel calls, a large-scale strike, Israel continued to rain rockets indiscriminately on Gaza, razing to ground district after district of civilian residential area, (2,540 housing units have been completely demolished, while another 22,850 have been rendered uninhabitable, in less than 72-hours) further accentuating the internal displacements. Reportedly, during these more than 2,000 strikes, whole families, including women and children have been wiped out. These strikes flattened neighbourhoods of Jabalia, north of Gaza. Israeli Navy also pounded Palestinian refugee’s Beach Camp, or al-Shati camp in north of Gaza. (Israel has ordered evacuation of these both camps, before it launches its ground attack.) meanwhile, there are reports of tank mounted raids inside Gaza by Israeli troops, who were trying to hit rocket launching pads, and for reconnaissance in search of clues to the location of hostages.
- By 13-Oct-2023, Palestinians in Gaza suffered more than 1,900 deaths, with atleast 600 children, and 6,049 injured. Israel has admitted that at least 1,200 Israelis have died, while 2,700 people were injured. In some pro-Israel media, the number of deceased Israelis is being quoted as above 1,300. Several British nationals are also reported to have been killed in Israel during the attack by Hamas on 7-8-Oct-2023. Israeli media claims that atleast 6,000 bombs equal to 4,000 tonnes have been dropped on Gaza in recent days.
- With dwindling electric supply, medical support in Gaza is coming to a halt, creating a worst humanitarian chaos. Fuel shortages are preventing Ambulances to convey injured to hospitals or provide the first aid. The health services have simply collapsed. Food shortages have begun to occur under the total blockade by Israel. The sewage system has been destroyed, and is likely to cause pandemic.
- Gaza morgue has a capacity of preserving only 20-bodies. With exceptional inflow of dead bodies and injured. Exacerbated by air bombing, depleting power supply, and shortage of cooling equipment, has forced human bodies to be stacked where coolers are available, but are overflowing in corridors and even car park.
- Due to the bombing, burials have become risky, and Palestinians are forced to bury their deceased ones, killed by bombing or otherwise, in improvised grave yards. This is an extremely inhuman consequence of the indiscriminate bombing, most of which is said to be without warning, and aimed against civilian targets. Loss of power and crumbling health sector, has inhumanly affected the incubation of new born babies and old and infirm requiring oxygen support. Several mosques, hospitals and schools have been flattened during the Israeli bombings / air to ground missile attacks. Satellite images have emerged on internet, showing the exact extent of damages inflicted by indiscriminate air-bombings of Gaza, which is eerie and extremely depressing.
- Due to indiscriminate bombings on civilian residential areas, more than 423,000 Palestinians, including women and children have been rendered homeless, or forced into IDPs. With all exits closed, they are unable to go to Egypt via Rafah Crossing. These figures do not include the Palestinians from North Gaza being displaced due to orders of evacuation before ground attack by Israel.
- Hamas has continued firing rockets into Israel from Gaza, and several rockets have landed n Ashkelon. Al-Qassam Brigades of Hamas claim that they had fired atleast 150 rockets towards Ashkelon on 13-Oct-2023. Ashkelon has been amongst one of the important targets of Hamas attacks, and is by no coincidence that this has been chosen as such.
- To understand more about the current importance of Ashkelon in the ongoing regional 5GW, please refer to the appended note, captioned Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline (EAPC).
- It is now believed that atleast 150-hostages have been taken by Hamas, that include Israelis, and foreigners. So far, Israeli authorities have been able to identify only 97-hosstages, though their whereabouts or welfare is not known. No hostage negotiator entity, or, international body has been able to access the hostages, atleast not yet. It seems that Israel has not been able to take stock of the situation and has been unable to have an unambiguous list of hostages. Several Americans, dual-nationals, Thais, and British are believed to be among the hostages. On 13-Oct-2023, USA president met family members of 14-Americans believed to be missing and / or taken hostage, and assured them of maximum support from USA. Israeli security has admitted that it lacks correct data of the residents of Gaza, and thus cannot predict or identify correct targets for attack or rescue. USA is assisting Israel in garnering intelligence through technical and other resources, for locating hostages and any potential rescue mission.
- Israel has imposed total blockade over water sources, electricity and fuel, and has declared that these will not be restored unless hostages are released.
- Some analysts believe that with the extremely high risks for the whole world, due to the disturbed status quo in Israel and Palestine conflict, there are chances that the international community, and the Middle East Quartet (group established in Madrid in 2002, comprising of UN, USA, EU, and Russia)will press for de-escalation, and development of a Camp David like agreement, bringing a step closer towards a permanent solution of the issue. Israel, due to its internal dynamics, and large number of hostages captured by Hamas, will also tread very carefully, in order to secure the release of the hostages, irrespective of the war-cries by some of its hard liners. These calls for attacks and rash-action most likely are a part of the strategy to evolve better bargains for a Cap David like accord, where it will finally end. It is to be seen that when a cease fire is worked out, and pave way for release of hostages, which will not happen without significant give and take arrangement.
- Considering earlier tactics of keeping hostages, it is suspected that the hostages have been dispersed, handed over to different families to blend them in the background to make their detection difficult, and even lodged in underground tunnels. Probably, they are not being kept at one place for more than a night or so, and are moved with the IDPs to various locations. It is also believed that the hostages would be secured with improvised booby traps. Continuous Israeli bombing is also jeopardising any rescue operation or improvised Entebbe like rescue.
- Among other demands, Hamas has demanded release of all Palestinian prisoners, totalling 5,200, before the conflict. In an earlier prisoner swap, in Oct-2011, Israel had released 1,027 Palestinian prisoners for one single Israeli, soldier Gilad Shalit. Hamas has threatened that it will kill hostages one by one, for every unannounced air attack by Israel. Under international conventions, such un-announced attacks are considered as War Crimes.
- Observers believe that the hostage situation has deeply affected the Israeli public. The failure of IDF to give any real-time help, and the ease with which the Palestinians appear to have ferried them across the fence through several holes they had created earlier, into Gaza. Apparently, even by this time, the IDF tanks or armoured vehicles had not been able to arrive at the spot. This fatal delay has shaken the trust of Israelis in the IDF, and leadership. As and when any reproachment is arrived at, incremental releases may be seen, prolonging the hostage crisis.
- Though several regional countries, including Egypt, Qatar, Turkey etc., are trying to broker some sort of hostage deal, but it is unlikely to yield and fruits, unless, super-powers involve themselves, and offer guarantees. As the crisis has already attracted USA, it is a matter of time, that it will need to be counterbalanced by Russian influence, and perhaps, that would be the time real negotiations, if any would commence. There may be hiccupped ceasefires of sorts, and opening of humanitarian relief corridors. For the time being, only limited lines of communications would be kept open between Hamas and mediators.
- Several proposals are being floated, such as release of some 36-women and children in exchange of same number of Palestinian women and children held in Israeli Jails. Nevertheless, any indication of opening of negotiations will be marked by shifting of captives I Israel to more secure locations inside Israel.
- Hamas had effectively remained below the technology levels in executing the operation, thus added its stealth effect. But at the same time, it used extensive reliance on technical means for capturing the images for later social media blitz. Even now, they are keeping radio silence and are not allowing any of their electronic signatures that could be intercepted by Israel or the US Navy’s floating monitoring station.
- According to some sections of the media, Hamas has released a female hostage with two children, though they are not her children. This seems to be signal by the captors, that they are willing to talk, while it is also an indication to Israel to avoid any rash action.
- Israel is trying hard to block transfer of donations to Palestinians in general and Hamas in particular, through Crypto Currencies, that do not use the normal banking channels and extremely discreet.
- The focus of western media is more towards highlighting alleged atrocities conducted against Israel, and the plight of Israelis, while the atrocities conducted through indiscriminate Israeli attacks on Gaza have been relegated to back-seat. Some analysts believe that Israel is garnering international sympathy, and trying to strengthen its position as USA and EU leaders are set to visit Israel.
- The world media is being infected by a deluge of Fake News being used either in support or against Israel. This indicates the ferocity of the Cyber-War or 5GW, that has set-in into the region. The pockets of 5GW are now connecting Middle East with Ukraine and Iran, which, inevitably strategically influences our region. It is in no way a good omen for the security situation in and round Pakistan for now and immediate future.
- Former Twitter or X has been ordered by EU to pull down Israel-Hamas related violent contents from its apps, and to prevent misleading, questionable or terrorist contents from using this platform. This move, by some, is being seen as a pro-Israel move, to curb genuine sympathies for the downtrodden Palestinian people. Schools in Israel, and Jewish schools elsewhere have advised their students and their parents to delete Instagram and TikTok to avoid being exposed to violent media contents.
- Telegram, X (formerly Twitter), Facebook and TikTok are reported to have been used for seeking and collecting donations by several groups, organisations and Hamas. The money is being transferred by PayPal, Wise and crypto-currencies including BitCoin, Binance and Byblt, beg facilitated by Chinese software TRON Blockchain. To block such donations, Israel has taken help of its IT companies, as well as PayPal and other companies. With discreet help from its allies, Israel is also pursuing curbs on operations of these apps in Gaza and West Bank territories.
- Media is reporting that Mohammed Deif, the supreme military commander of Al-Qassam Brigades, has called-on the Iranian proxies, (in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq) to join Hamas in conflict with Israel. Responding to USA’s warning, and its preparedness for intervention in support of Israel, the alleged Iranian proxies, who are clearly non-state actors, have threatened to target US assets by using missiles and drones.
- Hamas is reported to be having stockpiles of rockets, capability of producing small suicide drones, rocket propelled grenades, anti-tank missiles including Russian made Kornets and Fagots, limited supply of shoulder launched Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs).
- An existential threat to Hamas at the hands of Israel, will make Hezbollah and other proxies’ intervention inevitable. A ground offensive by Israel, would point towards this direction. If Israeli forces enter Gaza and engage in house-to-house search or engage in hand-to-had fight, they would be running a great risk, and may not be able to wrap-up the operation easily. Analysts believe that Hamas was prepared for such an Israeli reaction, and had appropriate strategy for the same. Hamas has already indicated, that it had taken in cognizance, such Israeli retaliation, and was fully prepared for it, and would give Israel another surprise. Not only this, it is believed that international community world does whatever it can to prevent such an extreme situation. This would certainly bring Ukraine to Israel.
- Hamas has further indicated that underlying causes of the attack include the accumulated anger and desire to avenge the Israeli desecration and raids into Al-Aqsa Mosque in Ramadan during May-2021, and the spike in Israeli atrocities including violence and occupation of land belonging to Palestinians. It may be noted that there had been an international outburst against the illegal settlements being developed by Israel, but to no avail.
- So far, no significant leader of Hamas has been reported killed, except two persons, Jawad Abu Shammala and Zakaria Abu Maamar, in Khan Yunis area of Gaza, as most Hamas several fighters have dispersed to safe locations in Gaza. Analysts also believe that Hamas has well cached its arsenal of Rockets, Missiles and drones, besides other arms and ammunition. So far there have been no significant claims of hits on any such caches.
- The Iraqi militia, Hashd Al-Shaabi, known to be under influence of Iran, has warned USA to refrain from directly getting involved in the conflict, lest they attack 2,500 USA troops stationed in Iraq. Badr Organisation of Iraq has also signalled that it would go in all out support for Hamas and PIJ. Badar Organisation is a part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, which are basically pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Iraq had appealed to Russia to intervene for cessation to the bloodshed in Palestine.
- Risk of asymmetric attacks on 900 American troops stationed in Syria, ostensibly to fight ISIS, has also risen manifold, in case USA directly intervenes in the conflict. Presence of PIJ in Syria also raises the risk level for USA troops in such an eventuality. Reportedly, on 10-Oct-2023, several rockets were fired from Syrian side into Israel. Though it is believed that these may be considered as warning shots, yet, they do indicate the presence of Hezbollah and other groups, that may be prepared to intervene at opportune time. In a pre-emptive strike, Israel has launched coordinated missile strikes on two Syrian airports, of Damascus and Aleppo, that damaged the runways and interrupted its operations.
- The Houthis, believed to be pro-Iranian, and its proxies, have also issued warning to USA, that if it directly involves in Israeli conflict, they would target American interests using rockets, missiles, drones and any other military options. This can be seen as a veiled warning to USA and KSA, which is at war with Yemen, and has suffered numerous hybrid-attacks on its maritime vessels and facilities, as well as its oil producing facilities.
- It has to tread very cautiously in the situation, as any widening of the conflict could also endanger its assets, mainly oil facilities. Escalation of conflict could at some point put strains on KSA-Iran relations, that are on way to re-development. Fearing any suspicions breaching the newfound reproachment between KSA and Iran, Iranian president in rare phone call to Crown Prince of KSA discussed the escalation of conflict in Israel.
- There are reports of an attack on one of the Israeli Embassy staff in Beijing. Israel in the meantime has criticised China’s stance Palestinian supportive narrative, and Israel expressed its deep disappointment for China not condemning Hamas’s attack.
- India condemned the Palestinian attack on Israel calling it a terrorist attack. It was a clear sign of supporting Israel by standing with it in solidarity, with whom its shares multi-billion defence deals. Both BJP and Congress condemned the attacks by Palestinians on Israel. India’s Adani Ports shares fell by 5% due to concerns for its operations on Haifa Port in Israel. With common genealogy between Palestine and Illegally Occupied Indian Kashmir (IIOK), India was initially ready to extend all out support of Israel to win its favours. Perhaps realizing that this approach was against public mood of a wide segment of society, and such hard-line approach against Palestinians, could provoke sharp reactions within India, and in IIOK, India volte-faced and its Foreign Office, without retracting its earlier statement of condemning Hamas’s attack and terming it as a terrorist attack, emphasised that its policy on Palestine remains unchanged, and India is for sovereign, independent, viable state of Palestine. Rattled by the blitzkrieg of Hamas, India fears that this may encourage sympathetic uprising in IIOK, and has thus tried to pre-empt by shutting down Mosques in IIOK, including Jamia Mosque in Srinagar, while placed several IIOK leaders under house arrest. These leaders include Hurriyat’s chief, Mirwais Umar Farooq. To divert attention from IIOK, and the prevent Pakistan from exploiting the situation to determent of India, India would try to engineer false flag operations and encourage its proxies to increase pressure on Pakistan, through terrorist attacks of significant magnitude. A high degree of vigilance is needed in Pakistan, where political activities are kicking up in anticipation of general elections.
- Lebanese Hezbollah is engaged in serious sabre clattering and conducting provocative maneuverers in solidarity with Hamas. There have been cross-border incidents, including missile and mortar attacks from both sides. Israel has carried out air raids on Marwahin in Lebanon, and has also used Armed Drones laden with Phosphorous Bombs, that are internationally prohibited, and its use on civilian population is considered as a war crime under international conventions. Three Hezbollah members were killed as a result of this bombing. Lately, Lebanese army during patrol found a loaded Rocekt Launcher in Qlaileh plain area, south of Tyre.
- On 10-Oct-2023, Ezz El-Din Al-Qassam Brigades claimed that firing of several rockets towards Galilee Region in north of Israel. In retaliation Israel bombed the targets, killing three Hezbollah members. On 11-Oct-2023, Hezbollah claimed that it had attacked Jardah, located opposite to Al-Dhahira region in a retaliatory attack. Israel’s earlier attack. It claimed that it had killed several Israeli military personnel. Some Israeli media outlets have confirmed that many casualties were borne by Israel, when anti-tank missile hot its target in Arab Al-Aramshe border area. Coinciding with the retaliatory attack by Israel, there were reports of the Israeli fire hitting a Reutter’s cameraman performing his journalistic duties along Israel-Lebanon border, while two of his journalist reporters were reported injured.
- Risk of Hezbollah joining the conflict is incrementally increasing. It is apprehended that Hezbollah may undertake strikes in Israel on pattern of Hamas attack of 07-Oct-2023. Israel, acutely aware of this possibility, is bolstering its defences on emergent basis. It is believed that Hezbollah could attack the villages located in Northern Israel. With an impressive inventory of rockets, missiles, mortars, artillery, and drones, Hezbollah can be another formidable challenge to Israel.
- Strategists believe that Hezbollah has an impressive inventory of missiles, and drones, pointing towards Israel, that are a strong argument to prevent Israel from taking any direct lunge at Iran. At the same time, however, it has issued stern warning, backed by sample attacks on Israel, that it is prepared and willing to attack Israel in support of Hamas. Should this front be opened, it could pose serious challenge to Israel, which will be confronted with asymmetric warfare and hybrid-warfare tactics.
- Some analysts believe that Hezbollah will continue the pressure, to maintain controlled tensions and keep Israeli forces pinned, but would not trigger immediate escalation, and would continue to abide by the rules of engagement in vogue in the area. However, it is not known, if Israel would like to escalate the situation, in order to garner American interference on its behalf.
- Islamic Jihad has called upon all resistance groups to join in the Operation Al-Aqsa Storm. It particularly called upon resistance fighters including Jenin Brigade and Lion’s Den Brigades, to confront Israel in the occupied territories.
- Israel has called on the world to consider Hamas as ISIS and treat it as such, while it is brandishing Israeli intent to annihilate Hamas as ISIS was crushed, though Israel had little to do with it. Israel’s Defence minister called Palestinians as human animals, while earlier in 2016, Israeli PM Netanyahu had also called Palestinians as Wild beasts in 2016.
- Soft-pedalling its Intelligence Failure, Israel is incrementally accepting that there was an Egyptian report about some spectacular incident to be created by Hamas, Israeli military had received this information about Hamas’s attack many hours before it actually happened. Earlier Israeli media had disclosed that several senior officials had also warned the Israeli PM’s office of an impending attack, but were ignored.
- Since Israeli Army has also accepted that it did receive some intelligence about possible attack, it is being seen as its sheer failure to protect the people of Israel, and it took three days to mobilize its boots on ground. This is likely to severely dent PM Netanyahu’s credibility on one hand, and to dent the credibility of MOSSAD and Shin Bet seriously.
- The lack of intelligence and data available with Israel also indicates that the Intelligence Security Agencies were lulled in false belief that they have sufficient intelligence and penetration in the Palestinian ranks and files. This is perhaps the reason that Israel completely failed identify the potential of Hamas for conducting such a lightening attack into Israel.
- Israeli military was unable to satisfy media about earlier allegations of Hamas militants beheading babies during the attack inside Israel. Such admissions lay bare the heightened media propaganda, using social-media to muster sympathy for Israel and propagate against Palestinian cause. Media claims that Israeli authorities have shared clips / photographs of bullet riddled bodies of children, beheaded soldiers, and burnt young people, with visiting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Hamas has refuted any such claim of killing children, or targeting civilians.
- It is possible that Israeli government deliberately allowed incursion by Hamas on 7-Oct-2023, believing that it would be a small containable attack. Such a small incident could have factored in to avert domestic opposition rising due to Judicial reforms; on the other hand, pull USA further closer to Israel, while persuading it to act against Iran in one way or the other. The release of Iranian assets, ostensibly in exchange of prisoners, had already opened possibilities for concluding Nuclear deal or revive JCPOA, had already ruffled up Israel, and Israel could leverage such an incident to halt all such overtures.
- Israel has mobilized its reservists to raise its manual strength and use them as force multiplier. Most of Israelis have to undergo 32-months and 24-months, of military service, respectively for men and women, at the age of 18. Later, they are placed in reserve units attaining the age of 40-years, and liable to be called in for service in cases of national emergencies. El Al airline, which has a history working in close coordination with Israeli security forces in clandestine operations, would be flying on Saturdays (as a policy, El Al does not fly on Saturdays) to ferry-in the reservists from other places, inland and across globe. This indicates Israels apprehensions that the scope of the conflict is inevitably going to expand and attract interventions by multiple proxies. Earlier, according to media reports, 360,000 reservists have been called-in, indicating the monumental threat it confronts. But this large number also takes in account the fact that there is visible reluctance of the Israelis to take up war duties. Israeli government has embarked on massive propaganda to incentivise these reservists to join. There have been numerous complaints from the Israeli reservists of shortages of equipment. IDF has set up a help-line to provide the short-equipment, and to allow local purchase of the deficient items from local market.
- As Israel scrambles to bring back its reservists from abroad, fears of PMCs being brought in to fight Hamas have arisen. Should such a development take place, the conflict is certain to expand and spread, as other proxies will also enter the theatre. It may be noted that a large number of Israelis enjoy dual nationalities, which offer plausible justification of these people be considered lawful citizens of Israel.
- Large number of airlines have cancelled their flights to and from Tel Aviv Ben Gorin Airport, due to unpredictability of rocket and mortar attacks by Hamas, that could jeopardise safety of aircraft in air and on ground. Israel has approved a $6-billion for compensations and insurance risks for Israeli airlines, and has issued them instructions to continue their operations. USA government is trying to convince the American airlines to continue operations to and from Israel for evacuation. Nearly all countries have made arrangements to complete evacuation of their citizens. Major evacuation commenced from 13-Oct-2023, while Indian citizens have been flown back. The exodus of foreigners from Israel, is leaving ground open for several proxies to operate with more freedom of operation on Israeli territory, should the conflict escalate and spread. This scramble to leave Israel by foreigners is yet another gloomy indication of impending widening of the conflict.
- What if Israel takes any irrational step like making an assault over Iran, that Iran may deem as an act of war? In such a case, the region will plunge in a prolonged conflict and will seriously disrupt energy supplies to the world. The oil prices are already faced with a rising trend, and could shoot-up case the energy lines are further threatened by larger conflict.
- Israel, on 13-Oct-2023, has given an ultimatum to about 1.1-milion North Gaza residents to evacuate Gaza and to move to its southern most areas, as Israel would be launching Ground attack, for which it has positioned IDF with its tanks and artillery along the Gaza Strip. The ultimatum was to expire by 05:00 local time. Israel has mobilized its 360,000 reservists in support of atleast 160,000 regular troops along the Iron Wall. The troops assigned for the invasion are said to be supported by tanks, armoured vehicles, specialist brigades of IDF, specialists in tunnel Tunnels Warfare, engineering unit Yahalom, Canine Unit Oketz, armoured bulldozers, anti-tunnel ammunition, etc., in anticipation of confronting booby-traps, IEDs and close quarter fighting in narrow streets and densely built-up areas. Extensive satellite captured maps are expected to be used with modern cyber techniques to map out possible hideouts and escape routes useable by Hamas.
- The areas that need to be evacuated include:
- North of Wadi Gaza (a seasonal water course).
- Refugee Camps of Jablaya and Beit Lahia.
- Towns of Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahia.
- Some analysts believe that the threat of ground attack is a powerful deterrent, while the impossibility of evacuation by Gazans in such a short time and under such conditions, is an extreme pressure tactics, with multiple objectives.
- Showing intentions of such an attack, that could cause a major human catastrophe, Israel has evoked American indulgence, who have already allocated $6-billion for Israel, are ferrying latest arms to Israel, and moved its Naval assets including Aircraft carriers in the region, seriously disturbing balances of power. Israel has been successful in provoking USA in halting release of $6-billion to Iran.
- As USA gets sucked into this vortex of 5GW, worlds attention from Ukraine has wavered and shifted to the developing scenario in Israel. There could be reduction in support for Ukraine. Russia, on the other-hand, can plausibly use this as a precedence to copycat operation in Ukraine.
- With possibility of large-scale civilian casualties of Palestinians, masses of Muslim world in general and Arabs in particular may lead to extensive pressures on their government to choose sides. Therefore, Arabs would prefer to have a solution and prevent such a catastrophe.
- It is likely that Israeli PM is using these tense moments to cement his shaky rule, and to win over support of the hardliner Jewish communities in Israel and across the world. He has already agreed to form and emergency government with Israeli opposition.
- Analysts believe that such coercive tactics are intended to demoralize Hamas, and force them to blink.
- Israel is increasing pressures to have better bargain chips for negotiations. Already indications are there that a female and two children-hostages have been released by Hamas. Absence of widespread coverage indicates back-channel negotiations in progress, where as a verifying gesture, these persons have been released.
- UN has asked the deadline to be extended, while IDF is blaming Hamas, and saying that it is asking Gazans not to move. UN has further indicated impossibility of evacuating seriously ill or handicapped patients.
- As the deadline of 05:00 hrs., passed without any attack, thousands of Palestinian families are seen moving on the single road that leads to the South, using cars, cycles, or simply walking. With debris and rubble choking streets, shortage of fuel, and limited capacity of mobilization, it is becoming an impossible challenge for the civilians to evacuate.
- So far there have been no strategic moves by Russia as USA amasses its naval assets close to Syria, where Russian presence is believed to be in vogue. Russia has yet not reacted to American warnings to Middle Eastern countries, which are linked to so called Axis of Resistance. Already, the incidents in Israel have viciously challenged the status quo, and have rivetted world attention away from Ukraine, atleast for the time being. Analysts are pondering on the scenario wherein American aircraft laden with weaponry already flying-in Tel Aviv, is the Palestine-Hamas conflict going to emerge as another Hybrid-Warfare zone, relegating Ukraine to second position? Such a diversion, could benefit both Russian and American blocks, where the former has apparently achieved limited objectives, while the latter is experiencing excoriating discomfort among peoples of its allies. Such a theatre in Middle East could more directly bleed Iran, while could also threaten KSA and Gulf countries, who were diplomatically fraternizing with Iran and China. Irrespective, the rising tensions and challenges would least affect China at this juncture, who is preparing to celebrate its anniversary of One-Belt-One-Road initiative. Lately, on 13-Oct-2023, President Vadimir Putin of Russia, in response to Iraqi prime mister’s appeal, has offered to work with international community for reaching a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. He reiterated that the conflict was a result of failed US policies in Middle East, and called for two states.
- With rise in sabre clattering by Hezbollah from Lebanon, USA has expressed serious concerns, and apprehensions that Hezbollah, considered to be an Iranian proxy, may interfere or attack Israel in asymmetric manner. USA has announced moving in additional Aircraft Carrier in the region as a deterrent for non-state or State Actros against any attack on Israel. USA is persistently accusing Iran of implicitly, but has not yet made a formal accusation with evidence of any sort. US Secretary of State made a visit to Israel on 12-Oct-2023, along with plane load of weapons. His visit is being seen as a greenlight to Israel for ground offensive / re-occupation of Gaza. He tried to balance his support for Israel by advising that it was “vitally important” that Israel respect international humanitarian law. “It’s what distinguishes us from terrorist organizations”. On his return trip, he met Palestinian President in Jordan. Contents of the meeting remain undisclosed. In a retaliatory move, USA has instructed Qatar to freeze / hold the $6-billion, it had deposited there, ostensibly in return of the hostages, only a few days ago. USA has cited Iranian support for Hamas, though no evidence was provided.
- UK has ordered its diplomats to evacuate their families from Israel. BBC is avoiding the use of term terrorist for the Hamas attackers, though pro-Israel world media is indiscriminately using this term for Hamas.
- Possibility of expansion of the conflict and engulfing the neighbouring states looms high. Distant rumblings of a multifaced hybrid-warfare are rapidly approaching Israel, unless prevented. Gauging the efficacy of the Hamas’s attack, it is evident that extensive planning, training, logistics, financing and intelligence has been invested in Hamas. Excellent operational security or secrecy was the other aspect that enabled it to achieve the results it did. There are strong apprehensions amongst analysts that Iran and its proxies are capable of providing further, more direct, sponsorship. Iran, ostensibly had been patiently, absorbing numerous hybrid-attacks by Israel, that included sabotage and Cyber-Attacks on Iranian Power stations, nuclear facilities, and commercial hubs. Israel has been striking Iranian maritime vessels, Iranian assets stationed in Syria, while USA has been striking alleged IRGC positions in Syria as well as Iraq. Several Iranian nuclear scientists had been assassinated in Iran, ostensibly by MOSSAD, while in daring acts, MOSSAD boasted stealing away nuclear files from Iranian archives. Besides, prompting sanctions on Iranian persons and entities, Israel has also been alleged to have engineered attacks on Iranian vessels along Syrian borders, and hunting Hezbollah across the globe. Iran also believes that Israel and USA are patronizing MeKO, Kurd Militants (Peshmerga), terrorists in Siestan-e-Balochistan, provinces along Azerbaijan and Armenia. It may not be a surprise if Iran has struck back, with a solid plausible denial of any direct involvement. According to some reports, massive fundings have been flowing in for not only Hamas, but also Palestine Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and other Sunni outfits. Though, Lebanese government, crippled by the mighty Beirut port explosion (04-Aug-2020), and burdened by Syrian and Palestinian refugees, while being competed by Hezbollah, is reluctant to engaged in any affray whatsoever. However, Hezbollah is flexing its muscles to take a lunge at Israel in a guerilla warfare. Israel on the other hand, has been using the tactics of disproportionate violence to crush any such movement in its infancy. It seems to have failed in doing so in Hamas and Israel conflict, and lost the option of first strike. As far as Lebanese side is concerned, a very limited violence is being perpetrated by either side, in a strategic bid to keep this front dormant. However, indicators are there that this pressure tool is being used in a very calibrated manner by Iranian proxies, to prevent Israel from going flat-out against Hamas. Israel, on the other hand, appears to be uncertain about the precise extent of infiltrations by Hamas and Hezbollah, and compromise of its operational plans and also remains uncertain about presence of fifth columnists in Israel. Israel is well aware that in there are, yet very deadly, tactics in a militant’s tool-kit, which better be kept un-initiated. Such tactics have already been witnessed in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.
- There is a clear restraint on Israel to make ground attacks and re-occupation, due to the several facts. One, Israeli hostages could be jeopardised. Two, world opinion is not entirely in Israeli favour, three; there could be infiltrations from multisides, and Israel could be caught up in violent cycle of violence. Four, Israeli benefactors may not be prepared to abandon Ukraine, and divert their support to Israel. Five; Abraham accord countries, could exert diplomatic pressures in the region against any continued disproportionate use of force by Israel. Six, already there are signs of economic effects of the violence, as Moody has shown its concerns, while Israel has been unable to prevent financing of Palestinians. Japanese banks are also predicting rise in uncertainty due to Israel-Hamas conflict.
- Placed all responsibility of Hamas’s actions on Iran on the premise that Iran had been supporting Hamas to develop in such an organisation. It also criticised pro-Hamas statements from Iranians. At home, Germany has proscribed the pro-Palestinian organisation Samidoun, that highlights the plight of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, accusing Samidoun of indulging in hate speeches and fanning antisemitic or anti-Israel propaganda. Germany also reacted by freezing all aid for Palestine, pending further review, while it has increased protection for Jews in Germany, as Pro-Palestine protests planned for 11-Oct-2023 were also not allowed. It also criticised Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas, for his failure to criticise Hamas, which is otherwise its rival.
- Egypt is contemplating to facilitate Humanitarian aid for Gaza, through its borders (Rafah Border Crossing) with Gaza Strip. For this purpose, it is trying to work out with USA and other countries to impose a limited cease fire, or a corridor for conveying humanitarian aid and has sought guarantees from international community for safety of the humanitarian operations. Egypt has indicated that it will be allowing Humanitarian Aid flights to Al-Arish Airport in Sinai Peninsula, for this purpose. Egypt is however opposed to allowing any Gaza IDPs of refugees to cross-in Egypt via Rafah Crossing.
Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline (EAPC)
- (Kloosterman, 2020) Israel nationalized the pipeline sometime after 1979 Iranian revolution and souring up of relations between Iran and Israel, and placed EAPC, now also known as Europe Asia Pipeline Company (EAPC), under control of Israeli government. It is claimed that despite Iranian and Israeli diplomatic hostilities, Iran had secretly continued transporting oil through the pipeline, for some years, before it finally ceased to do so. (Meliksetian, 2020). However, Iran filed an International Arbitration claim in 1994 against Israel and claimed compensation. Various political sensitivities of the Arabs states, towards Israel, encouraged Israel to continue the business under the table or in secrecy. (Wallace, 2020)
- in Israel, for onwards distribution to Europe, via Cyprus, from whereon it will be ferried either through Tankers or through
pipeline, thatpipeline that is likely to be operational by 2022. With the increased attacks on maritime traffic along Yemen and its coastal islands, suspected to be carried out by Houthis, backed by Hezbollah, pose a serious risk to the traffic, and could be mitigated by increasing the naval presence of the RED MED Land Bridge related naval vessels including the Israeli corvettes. (Kloosterman, 2020) The agreements signed between Israel and UAE, on 20-Oct-20 strengthen this concept and translate it into practical terms. In return, Israel is expected to collaborate with UAE forexponentionallyexponentially increasing UAE’s capacity to produce renewable energy. Despite the several risks attached to the environment, spreading from damage to marine life, hazards of oil-spills and noise pollution, and fact that Israel has recently abandoned one of its renewable energy projects due to one of the above reasons, UAE and Israel appear to be set to proceed on this project.
- Revival of this pipeline to its full capacity and with modifications, further reduces Turkey’s strategic advances in the Mediterranean Sea, and also adds more traction to their Axis against Iran. With UAE already vying for participation in the EastMed Pipeline, has set up a company MED-RED Land Bridge in Abu Dhabi in collaboration with Israel. Med-Red comprises of Petromal Holding Company (Abu Dhabi) AF Entrepreneurship (Israel owned) and Lubber Line, by international group. UAE also looks forward to invest and finance oil and gas projects at Haifa Port. OIndia is already present at Haifa Port through its Adani Ports company. UAE, through MED-RED Land Bridge has also signed a MoU with EAPC, on 20-Oct-2020, to transport its oil produce through EAPC to Europe and Western customers. Supplies began in early-2021. (Pipeline Technology Journal, 2020) It is analysed that with oil being diverted to western markets, flow toward Asia will be significantly affected, and could have a negative effect on Chinese supplies. However, India is hedging against possible curtailment of its oil supplies, and attaching itself more firmly with the axis. Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline is emerging a lynch-pin in the whole strategic matrix, that includes UAE and Saudi Arabia, either directly or through proxy. (Ari Rabinovitch, 2020)
- Eilat has great strategic importance for Israel, as it offers a land bridge to Israel between Red Sea, the gateway to Asia and to Mediterranean Sea for Europe. During the time of Shah of Iran, when he had friendly relations with Israel, Eilat was a critical port in the crude oil supply chain, where tankers would off load their cargo, and it was pumped across to the waiting tankers at Ashkelon port in Israel.
- The New-Axis is being built on the energy corridor blueprint, envisaging revival of Eilat Ashkelon Pipeline (EACP), EastMed Pipeline, Saudi Arabia’s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline, The Trans-Arabian Pipeline (TAPLINE) and Iraqi Pipeline in Saudi Arabia (IPSA), Egyptian pipeline to Israel, and Lebanese pipelines. With increase in number of attacks targeting ARAMCO, the plans for extending East West Pipeline are being expedited. The offshore oil and gas infrastructures are now being linked between Ashkelon in Israel and Al-Arish in Egypt. The Ashkelon-Arish Pipeline is a 90-km long pipeline that connects Ashkelon with Al-Arish in Egypt that passes underwater in Mediterranean Sea, and carries gas from Egypt. The Arish-Ashkelon pipeline began its operations in 2008. Egypt is also receiving gas from Israel through Ashkelon-Aqaba Pipeline. Arab Petroleum Company (SUMED) was established in 1974, and operates the 200-mile oil pipeline that is connects Read Sea with Mediterranean, by-passing Suez Canal. It was envisaged in 1967, when the Suez Canal was blocked due to the Arab Israel war. Headquartered in Alexandria, Egypt, it is jointly owned by 50% Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), 15% each by Mubadala, Saudi Aramco, Kuwait Investment Authority, and 5% by Qatar Petroleum. (MUBADALA, n.d.). Egyptian gas-pipeline to Israel has been under threat, which has increased. It has been frequently targeted by terrorists, and only recently, on 18-Nov-2020, it came under attack, ostensibly by ISIS, in North Sinai near el-Arish causing partial damages. (Al-Monitor Staff, 2020).
- The East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), or EastMed Gas Forum, was formed at Cairo on 16-Jan-2020, with Egypt, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan and Palestine Authority as its members, and as stakeholders in the EastMed Pipeline. France has also applied to join EMGF, while USA and EU hold observer’s status in the forum. (Pipeline & Gas Journal, 2020). The East Mediterranean Pipe Line, or EastMed Pipeline, is a 2,100-km under the sea pipeline, and is expected to be operational by 2025. Israel has already signed an agreement with Cyprus, Greece and Italy for the pipeline connecting Egypt, Jordan, Palestine Authority, Cyprus, Greece and EU. The gas from Israel will be pumped via Cyprus to Crete in Italy for further transmission in EU. Israel is also expected to maintain a strong relationship with Egypt, so that it could export its gas, and encourage Egypt not to bank on its own reserves only. The charter of EMGF was formally signed on 08-Sep-2020. (Reuter, 2020). The EastMed Pipeline significantly reduces the local monopoly of the Arab countries for energy production, and stands to challenge the Turkey-Libya agreement to divide Eastern Mediterranean, to traverses through the waters claimed by Greece and Cypress for Gas and Oil exploration. This agreement also brings Greece and Cypress closer to developing more overt and robust security relations with Israel, with full backing of USA, and a strong opposition to Turkey.
- Neom is a high-tech city under-development on Red Sea coast, only 70-km from Israeli resort town of Eilat. Strategically Neom would emerge as a hub for tourism and a cross-road for the land bridge for commerce and tourism, and pipelines for oil and gas, that would connect several Saudi Islands, including the ones recently taken over by Egypt, and the Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline, and others to and beyond Israel. These futuristic possibilities, enhance the importance of the pipelines passing through Ashkelon, and would continue to be focus of anti-Israel forces.
The author is former Director General Intelligence Bureau
