Tariq A Lodhi

1. The Iranian President, Dr. Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi arrived at Islamabad on 22-Apr-2024 for three days scheduled visit. After spending one day in Islamabad, with back-to-back engagements, including signing of several agreements, and meeting COAS and discussing significant points on agenda, the Iranian President landed in Lahore on 23-Apr-2024, from where he was to depart to Karachi for a day. He is expected to depart to Sri Lanka after Pakistan’s visit. Iranian President’s visit to Sindh and Punjab also signals Irans deep interest in reviving good relations with Pakistan.
2. On his agenda are signing several commerce related agreements with Pakistan to enhance bilateral trade and raise it to an annual volume of $10 billion. His visit has further strengthened grounds for security related agreements to counter terrorism, besides discussing regional issues, including Middle East crisis and Afghanistan. The rising threat of terrorism from Afghanistan is challenging both countries, and a joint approach would benefit the region. Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, without infringing upon the sanctions, is also likely to be discussed and a solution thereof may be arrived at. Several accords have been signed mutually, none that could be seen to conflict with the sanction’s regime or could be used as a plausible justification to penalize Pakistan by opponent block. All these under-consideration areas are vital for Pakistan and Iran, particularly in current scenario when both are being targeted by combined Hybrid-Warfare. The visit could further enable both countries in amicably sorting Banking mechanisms to support Free Trade Agreements (FTA) and take bilateral trade to new heights. 
3. The visit has certainly rekindled hope amongst Pakistani people, who may find this visit as a light at the end of the tunnel of economic woes. This can also be considered as a success of the efforts by the current establishment and government’s disposition towards national issues.
4. Of course, when seen in the backdrop of recent visit by the Saudi Foreign Minister to Pakistan (15-Apr-2024) in response to earlier visit of Pakistan’s PM to KSA in first week of April-2024, has further strengthened relations between both countries and enhanced chances of huge investments by KSA in Pakistan. This back-to-back diplomacy also indicates that Pakistan is very skillfully negotiating along the diplomatic tight rope and as the differences between Iran and KSA appear to be reducing. The concurrent visit to China by the Pakistan’s FM along with PML(N) leadership, also suggests a high degree of diplomatic coordination, and intent for expeditious revival of full-steam economic activity, with complete cooperation of Iran and China. This visit further strengthens Iran, Pakistan-China relationship, frustrating all clandestine efforts by Hostile Intelligence Agencies (HIAs) to prevent the coalescing, and relentless targeting CPEC and Balochistan.
5. With Russia’s invitation for other states to join INSTC, at a time that Pakistan is strengthening its relations with Iran, who is a 33% stake holder in INSTC, is a good omen, and Pakistan can bid to join this project with support of friendly nations. Such an availability of alternate route to CARs would reduce Pakistan’s dependence on Afghanistan’s transit. Should China further cooperate with Pakistan and open transit route through Tajikistan-China border crossings, the CPEC could have a quantum jump in its efficacy.
6. Iranian President’s visit to Sri Lanka marks the return of the Chinese influence in Sri Lanka and revival of its economic activity. In Sri Lanka, Iran is engaged in development work and is constructing at least two dams and a 120-MW power plant, costing approximately $500 million, under Uma Oya Multipurpose Project. The Iranian president is expected to inaugurate one of the dams during his visit.
7. These visits mark an important milestone in Irans diplomacy, as they are bound to worry India, who thinks Sri Lanka and Pakistan are its backyards and India has gone head over heels to prevent growing Chinese influence. India, in seventies, has interfered militarily in both countries in a failed-bid to subordinate them to its hegemony, and thereafter has been covertly interfering in them ever-since. Few years back, India had been accused of interfering through RAW in Sri Lanka to work out a regime change, while India is now globally being accused of irresponsible covert warfare that includes terrorism and assassinations.
8. This Iranian President’s visit comes at the heels of Iran-Israel bout of 13-Apr-2024. Curiously, on 18-Apr-2024, USA slapped sanctions on Iran’s Drones development program, by US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioning sixteen persons, two entities, and five companies that provide materials and components to the two-entities, in Iran for manufacturing engines that power the drones used against Israel. Iran has earlier been accused of supplying similar drones to Russia that are being used against Ukraine. UK followed suite by freezing the accounts of these sanctioned entities and persons, as applicable. One day later, on 19-Apr-2024, USA announced sanctioning 3-Chinese, and one Belarus based companies on allegations of supplies to Pakistan’s Ballisitc Missile program. Unfortunately, the timings of these sanctions tend to place both Pakistan and Iran on same side of the fence across Israel-India-USA axis and speak volumes about the international conspiracies.
9. With rise in Afghan related and HIAs sponsored terrorism in Pakistan, which had initially gained sectarian proportions, had led to halting Iranian development works in Pakistan, particularly Karachi, while several Iranian cultural centers were also closed due to security reasons.
10. This visit is a death knell to the terrorist operating in Balochistan and Iranian Siestan-e-Balochistan. Their sponsors will try their utmost to restore the morale of these terrorist outfits, by undertaking some sort of mischief, to mar the visit. Previous diplomatic or commerce events related to Iran, were marked with synchronized attacks by terrorists to clinch headlines.
11. The hostile reactions in some known sections of social media, were not entirely unexpected, but appear to have failed in gaining any public interest. Traditional sectarian groups opposed to Iran, appear to be well contained, at the moment. However, mischief by HIAs proxies cannot be ruled out.
12. Though there has been no formal announcement of any agreement on Counter Terrorism, yet, this meeting is expected to break the ice, and prepare firm grounds for future cooperation in fields of Counterterrorism in the region. This is certainly bad news for the terrorist groups active in the region, and their sponsors, who will try reacting by organising more fierce terrorist attacks in both countries.
13. Some sections of the media have pointed out last-minute alteration in the events plans, wherein, invitee lists, including those of Iranian delegation, had been altered significantly, and even shortened, citing paucity of space at the venue, and lack of security clearances. Being cognizant of the HIAs and their proxies in desperation, it has been a good decision to mutually agree to modify the itinerary of the visit and meetings. Unless it was a gross oversight at some level, such un-vetted programs should not have been made public in the first place. Failure on part of the organizers to assess the space requirements for the guests, if so, speaks of poor performance by concerned, which could have been politically motivated to blemish the Punjab government. The Punjab Intelligence Committee had taken a timely decision to modify these programs and participants’ lists. While it seems to be a wise decision, yet, it would have not raised any eyebrows if such decision were taken well in advance before issue of the program schedule.
14. It is well known that anti-Iran forces thrive on sectarian themes and narratives. Planning of such visits requires avoidance of visits to places of sensitive nature, including those that may entail sectarian criticism at any later stage. Last minute-changes should be avoided, as they indicate weakness of the security-systems. This oversight needs to be probed at appropriate level to rule out any ulterior motive to mar the visit, and suitable clarifications must be made public before it is hijacked by groups with ulterior motives for crafting their toxic narratives.
15. With this daring visit, Iran-Pakistan renewed diplomatic closeness, in whose reaction we may expect increased hostile activity by the HIAs and their proxies in frustration, who, would exert more extreme pressures on Pakistan from diplomatic and political sides, while increasing their 5GW and Hybrid-Warfare assaults. On the Hybrid-Warfare front, the HIAs will intensify their efforts for a regime change in Iran, efforts to destabilize it, and see the rise in IS-K power, affecting Pakistan and Iran’s internal security.
16. As the Israel-Palestine conflict gets complicated and spreads, Europe is also moving in sync, Poland has consented to position nuclear weapons on its soil, while fresh round of anti-Chinese actions are ongoing, that includes spy-hunt across Europe. Meanwhile, Israeli MI chief has resigned citing his failure to fore-warn about the 07-Oct-2023 Hamas raid, and more resignations may follow, leading to ultimate fall of Netanyahu regime. (We will be writing a detailed analysis on this later). This all adds to uncertainty in the region and demands extra care in all matters, particular those related to national security and economy. The Author is former Director General Intelligence Bureau, Pakistan