Tariq Lodhi

It was already anticipated that India would try to divert the attention of its domestic and international audience from the mismanagement and the rising discontentment which is visible in various parts of India.  It was also well anticipated by Pakistani analysts that after the pathetic and insensitive display of terrorism-sponsorship and trying to build spectacular-terrorist event in Pakistan through the Jaffar Express Hijack drama, India would try to create powerful distractions and would not hesitate conducting False Flag Operations to divert the international attention.  Though this would tantamount to concealing itself under the sheepskin to stand amongst the sheep, yet its footprints betray its real self.  Pakistan is all prepared and is ready to face any adventurist approaches, may they come in form of any Surgical Strike, Covert Attack using proxies or direct, or any other means of violating the borders. 

In this backdrop of rising tensions between India and Pakistan on diplomatic plane, it was expected that India would definitely come in support of the terrorist proxies and will have to carry out some symbolic response, to obstruct or retard Pakistan’s offensive against the terrorists and their patrons. 

The Indian media on 01-Apr-2025 broke the news about a confrontation at the Line of Control (LoC) between India and Pakistan.  According to the Indian known propaganda media, Indian military was conducting its operations in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) in its Kathua district since last several days.  On the night of 31-Mar-2025, when the Muslims of sub-continent were celebrating Eid, India assigned its special military units along the LoC on pretext of carrying out Search-and-Destroy Operations by first light of 01-Apr-2025[1].

It had also deployed its special units believed to be involved in conducting cross-border clandestine operations from Panjtirthi area of Kathua Panj near the LoC in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), who ostensibly were using cover of operating against unknown and unidentified infiltrators.  Accentuating the media hype, some of the Indian outlets went a step further and announced that Pakistan Army had crossed the line of control, violating the ceasefire agreement which was drawn in 2021[2].  The same Indian media outlets further heaped their propaganda by reporting a mine-blast on 01-Apr-2025 at about 13:35-Hours, which was followed by firing sounds. According to the Indian sources, this incident occurred in the thickly forested are of Nangi Tekri in IIOJK’s Krishna Ghati sector.  Not unexpectedly, no international media picked up and carried these reports, which were released by some of the news lines which had earlier been exposed in the India Chronicles expose’.  The Indian propaganda media driven by its Intelligence agencies, is propagating this issue and hurling threat to the Kashmiri resistance fighters and the people of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) to further strike fear and terror amongst them so as to prevent them from and possible resistance.

This purported incident occurred in sync with renewed attempts by some terrorist groups and rogue former-ANDSF members in the Afghan Military, who tried to raid into Pakistan from Pak-Afghan borders on 01/02-Apr-2025 night.  It is our assessment that India is trying to demonstrate its support to its surrogates and proxies operating from Afghanistan against Pakistan and trying to generate pressures on Pakistan’s Eastern borders.  Furthermore, it is trying to create justification for its unprovoked heavy firing and clandestine operations around the LoC and is conducting False Flag Operations by planting IEDs across LoC.  This is perhaps the most desperate action by India, who after unsuccessfully trying to destabilize Balochistan intends to join forces with the terrorists and launch direct False Flag Operations in AJK and also in G-B, from where the CPEC flows.

After the foiling of several terrorist attacks by Indian-sponsored groups, including BLA in Balochistan and TTP in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa by Pakistan’s military, India is now trying hard to create diversions for Pakistan’s security forces.  These diversionary terrorist actions can be interpreted as a signal of support for the Indian surrogates based in Afghanistan, and to bolster their sagging morale for continuing their cross-border attacks into Pakistan.  

While the Jaffar Express incident was connected to the subsequent 4^th Intelligence Conference and Raisina Dialogue (16-18-Mar-2025), this recent episodes of unprovoked firing, violations of LoC, planting of IEDs along LoC, and admitting about the explosion of one such IED, is certainly foul-play by Indian special forces, who were trying to plant these IEDs across the LoC in AJK in order to kill and maim local civilian residents and  Pakistani troops.  This no-doubt is a serious violation of the Indo-Pak forces ceasefire agreement made in 2021.  It was understood that the Indian intelligence agencies will try to prolong these self-created tensions along the LOC to draw world attention, create plausible justification for the subsequent threats that the Indian Home Minister has planned to make, while the Indian Intelligence Agencies would try to create illusions of unrest in AJK and G-B.

India, for its own domestic audience as well as the international audience, has tried to justify and create a plausible excuse for heaping more draconian measures in the Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) before the scheduled visit by Indian Home Minister on 07-Apr-2025.  It is worth mentioning that the Indian Foreign Minister, on 05-Mar-2025, during a briefing session at Chatham House in London, had commented that the AJK is stolen part of Kashmir and needs to be returned for complete solution of Kashmir dispute.  He added that India has already solved the problem of Kashmir by abrogating the Article-370 in 2019 and holding the IIOJK elections in 2024.  Both these actions are fraught with controversies and do not over-ride the UNSC’s resolutions on the matter. Though, Pakistan’s Foreign Office immediately reacted to this comment, yet this thinly veiled threat was taken very seriously by Pakistan’s military, who announced that they are prepared to give a befitting reply to any misadventure against Pakistan.  The threats by the Indian Foreign Minister were a clear manifestation of the militant intents that India has in mind regarding Pakistan, the LoC and AJK.  It may be recalled that The Prime Minister of Pakistan, while addressing AJK Legislative Assembly on Kashmir Day, 05-Feb-2025, had called upon India to resolve the Kashmir issue through dialogue[3].  

India appears to be oblivious of the effects of its policies and covert interferences in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives, Sri Lanka etc., who have slipped out of India’s complete domination.  Similarly, the Indian suppressive policies completely pulverising Human Rights, spewing Islamophobia, protecting racism, that are meant to pressurise communities other than extreme rightist groups, are driving its internal situation in Ladakh, Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), Himachal Pradesh, former NEFA states, etc. towards points of no-return.

India which traditionally copies the footsteps of Israel in terms of aggressiveness and disregards to the international bodies, is trying to police the area and has tried to violate the agreements along the LoC.  The situation and the ground realities in Israel may be having different set of dynamics, but in case of Pak-India, any such adventurism by India is going to be met with atleast double its force by Pakistan irrespective of any repercussions.  Perhaps, India is also aware that such repercussions could seriously jeopardise the fragile strategic equilibriums for not only Afghanistan or Pakistan but also for India, and as such, it must tread very carefully, lest its rocks the regional strategic boat.

There is no doubt that Pakistan is China’s backyard, as much as it may be for India, and one thing is certain, any instability being contemplated in Pakistan would have its repercussions felt up-to Myanmar, right through India, as India will face the blowback effects of its terror sponsorship in Pakistan and Afghanistan.  In one of our earlier writings, we had referred to the blowback effect that instability in Afghanistan could cause in India and beyond.  It is expected that the Indian intelligence agencies will try to prolong these self-created tensions along the LOC to draw world attention, create plausible justification for the subsequent threats that various Indian politicians have been making in recent past.  Another set of local analysts are of the opinion that India has created this smokescreen of allegations against Pakistan for violation of the LOC under a plot, with an intent to penetrate some terrorists into Pakistan’s Azad Jammu Kashmir so that before the arrival of the Interior Minister they could carry out sabotage activity in AJK, developing an impression that the warning given by India is being backed up by covert-action, and serious threats to the security of CPEC and AJK have been created.

We once again reiterate that Pakistan is in the middle of a vicious hybrid warfare, which has been unleashed upon the whole region as a part of the super-powers Great Game.  Taking advantage of the rising tensions between Iran and USA, and as the marching tunes of the American military approaching Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan can be heard, India is trying to pre-empt any possible diplomatic or humanitarian support for Iran from Pakistan’s side.  After failing to breed misunderstanding on basis of Fake News and other propaganda methods, through which Indian minions tried to create an illusion that Pakistan has secretly agreed to allow USA Air Force to use some of its Air Bases, and that these bases could be used against Iran, India had changed the narrative, and continues to create misunderstanding between Iran and Pakistan, and it seems obvious that it does not hesitate manipulating False Flag Operations in both Iranian and Pakistani territories.  The Indian efforts to discourage Pakistan from making any pro-Iranian or supportive move, have fallen flat since the Pakistani Prime Minister, while exchanging the Eid greetings on 31-Mar-2025, had told Iran that, as a friend of Iran, Pakistan will never allow its soil to be used for causing harm to the Islamic Republic of Iran[4]. Such a statement lay to waste Indian efforts of coercing Pakistan into making any move that would strengthen relations between Iran and Pakistan.  Miffed at the diplomatic front, India will try to vitiate the Balochistan situation, and would also contemplate to carry out False Flag Operation in Siestan e Balochistan in Iran, and vice versa, to create misunderstanding between Iran and Pakistan.  At the same time, it will also try to prod BLA and its associated terrorist groups into conducting further acts of terrorism in Balochistan.  India wants Pakistan’s Balochistan to be in turmoil, so that the Indian intelligence assets can assist and contribute in carrying out covert attacks inside Iran to further weaken and hollow it and to prevent it from offering a unified resistance against Iran and its allies.  India seems all set to drive a dagger in Iran’s back, and twist it too.  Since there are a number of smaller ongoing-operations by respective pro-India stakeholders, their respective projected timelines have to be met, hence the Indian desperation to the extent of recklessness.  But the only reassuring thing in this whole melee is that Pakistan’s armed forces are on the front foot and prepared for all exigencies.

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[1] “J-K: Pakistan Army violates ceasefire along LoC in Poonch, Indian Army retaliates”, ANI, 02-Apr-2025, < https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/j-k-pakistan-army-violates-ceasefire-along-loc-in-poonch-indian-army-retaliates/articleshow/119895399.cms>

[2] “Pakistan Army troops cross LoC. Here’s what happened”, First Post Explainer, 02-Apr-2025, < https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/pakistan-army-troops-cross-loc-heres-what-happened-13876593.html>

[3] “FO rejects Indian FM’s ‘baseless claims’ on AJK, asks to vacate occupied Kashmir”, by Abdullah Momand, the Dawn, 06-Mar-2025, < https://www.dawn.com/news/1896150>;

[4] “PM Sharif Vows to Block Attack on Iran from Pakistan”, The Tasnim News, Iran, 01-Apr-2025, < https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2025/04/01/3284024/pm-sharif-vows-to-block-attack-on-iran-from-pakistan>;

The author is former Director General, Intelligence Bureau, Pakistan