Khurram Khan
The tumultuous events in Bangladesh and violence ridden incidents in the UK have demonstrated the fragility of stability in otherwise considered calm and well controlled polity.
Brutal repression in Bangladesh to stifle the opposition had been going on since long under the watch of now deposed Premier Sheikh Hasina Wajid. The travesty of justice by awarding capital sentences of leaders of Jamaat e Islami for the alleged crimes committed during the civil war in the erstwhile East Pakistan before it was occupied by India and severed from Pakistan as a new state of Bangladesh was met with muted international condemnation.
Hasina Wajid had craftily labeled the Jamat a veritable arm of (Muslim) fundamentalists/terrorists that clouded the vision of the international community at large from the heinous treatment by the Awami League’s (AL) government of its political opponents. The other major opposition party – Bangladesh National Party (BNP) was persecuted on corruption charges – the pet whip of despots to torment their rivals.
Fifteen years of AL rule had made economic strides that was credited undoubtedly to Sheikh Hasina Wajid vision and was acclaimed internationally. The economic progress inculcated in her a dictatorial streak and misplaced omnipotent stature. The praise showered on her leadership ushering Bangladesh from least developed country to a lower middle-income country in 2015 and in the estimates of the World Bank set to graduate from United Nations Least Developed Countries (LDC) in 2026. Poverty declined from 11.8 percent in 2010 to 5.0 percent in 2022.
Covid-19 dealt a severe blow to the economy of Bangladesh. Economic growth slowed down from 6.6 percent over the decade preceding the pandemic to an estimated 5.6 percent in 2024. Balance of payments crises forced the government to introduce a multiple exchange regime in 2022 that discouraged foreign exchange inflows, which in turn lead to current account deficit. Control of foreign exchange and restricting imports resulted in shortages of intermediary and capital goods, gas and energy.
Bangladesh under AL had envisioned attaining the status of upper middle-income country by 2031 for which it had to implement structural reforms as suggested by the WB to create employment opportunities by facilitating competitive business conditions, investment in human capital for skilled labor force, upgrading infrastructure, and implementing a policy environment for private investment.
Protests started by students over reservation of government jobs spiraled into a large-scale agitation. The government, instead of finding a way to calm matters resorted to brute force. Police fired directly at the protesting students resulting in killing hundreds of them. Reports suggested that members of AL also jumped into the fry to counter the protesters leading to more deaths in the ensuing violence.
The government’s belated approach to the Supreme Court to annul the decision of the High Court that had restored job reservation came too late in the day. The students and protesters had smelled blood that emboldened them. The call of the protesting students to march onto Dhaka proved to be too much for the military high command that intervened and persuaded Hasina Wajid to resign as things had gone out of her government’s control.
Sheikh Hasina Wajid is not the first one to face stiff resistance on the job reservation issue. In 1990 the government of Prime Minister V. P. Singh was embroiled in a similar situation when he tried to implement recommendations of the Mandal Commission for reserving job quota in the public sector for disadvantaged classes and was opposed tooth and nail by the upper caste Hindus. Uncompromising stance taken by Hasina Wajid to quell opponents of job reservation through force brought a premature end to her rule that could not have been fathomed after her party’s landslide victory in allegedly manipulated elections in January this year.
Induction of Noble Laureate Muhammad Yunus, who faced criminal charges during AL rule and sentenced to 6-months imprisonment in January 2024, as the head of interim government of Bangladesh reflects the swinging fortunes in the power politics of underdeveloped countries. Sheikh Hasina Wajid tried to tarnish his image of a clean person by instituting cases against him and insinuating financial impropriety.
It is yet to be seen how the interim government wades through the constitutional, political and economic crisis in Bangladesh. It is for sure that the country would not be returning to elections and democracy any time soon as indicated by Muhammad Yunus by making it contingent on a roadmap. In all probability he would take cue from the Bretton Woods multilateral financial institutions the WB and IMF. He would push for privatisation and encourage more private investments.
It would be interesting to watch who will dictate foreign policy of Bangladesh. Would it strike a balance in relations between the USA and China? Whether it would drift to Quad or hop on to the lap of China. Answers to these questions would give us the reasons for the downfall of Sheikh Hasina Wajid.
One should not write off Sheikh Hasina Wajid and her AL as maverick leaders or their scions have made a comeback like the return of President Bongbong Marcos of Philippines, whose infamous father Ferdinand Marcos was ousted in a people’s uprising in 1986.
The author is former Joint Director General Intelligence Bureau and a geo-political analyst.
