16–31 October 2026

DOMESTIC

BALOCHISTAN

1. The bullet-riddled body of schoolteacher Pervez Ahmed, who had been missing for two days, was found in Pasni, Gwadar district (16.10.26).

2. Two police constables, Ahmed Lashari and Malik Bugti, were martyred by unidentified gunmen while on patrol duty near Bedar Bridge in Naseerabad district (16.10.26).

3. Security forces conducted intelligence-based operations in Quetta, Nushki and Khuzdar districts, reportedly killing eight alleged BLA/BLF terrorists, while five more were killed while attempting to set up a roadblock in Panjpai, Quetta. A hideout was busted in Nushki, and 490 kg of explosives were recovered during an operation in Khuzdar (17.10.26).

4. Security forces killed four suspected BLA/BLF militants during operations in Jattakabad, Kalat district, and Shadi Kaur, Pasni, Gwadar district, launched after reports of militant hideouts in these areas. However, during clearance operations in Shadi Kaur, Major Wajahat Waheed was martyred in an IED attack (18.10.26).

5. Armed men abducted 18 labourers and the mine owner’s son from a marble mine in Naal, near Khuzdar, and stole a loader and two vehicles while fleeing (18.10.26).

6. Twenty police recruits, who were abducted from the Quetta–Karachi Highway in Mastung district on 17 October while travelling from Kalat to Nushki, have been safely recovered from the Mangochar area of Kalat district (20.10.26).

7. Ten bullet-riddled bodies were found over two days in Gwadar, Kech, Khuzdar and Washuk districts of Balochistan. These included four in Pasni, one of them a missing University of Gwadar student; two unidentified bodies in Selo Kour, Kech district; the body of Muhammad Amir in Basima, Washuk district; and another body in Mula Cross, Khuzdar district (20.10.26).

8. Aurangzeb Majeed, the younger brother of Balochistan MPA and Chief Minister’s Adviser on Sports and Youth Affairs Meena Majeed Baloch, was abducted by unidentified armed motorcyclists in Mand, Kech district (20.10.26).

9. Security forces reportedly killed 10 suspected militants affiliated with the banned BLA/BLF in separate engagements near the Gabd border crossing and in Gwadar city (22.10.26).

10. Power supply to parts of Sindh and Punjab was disrupted after unidentified men blew up a 220kV transmission pylon near Dera Murad Jamali, affecting electricity supply from the Uch Power Plant in Naseerabad district (24.10.26).

11. Security forces killed alleged TTP commander Adil Shah alias Darvesh during an operation in Qila Saifullah (25.10.26).

KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (KP)

1. Policeman Muhammad Jalal was martyred in an exchange of fire during a terrorist attack on a security post in Spaina Mela, Hassankhel, about 50 kilometres south of Peshawar (15.10.26).

2. Police Head Constable Raqeeb Khan was shot dead by unidentified gunmen in the Muslimabad area of Bannu district. Later, the body of a man identified as Naseebullah alias Rehmat Ali was found in the same area, along with a note alleging that he was associated with terrorists and involved in attacks on police stations and checkposts. However, these allegations could not be independently verified (15–16.10.26).

3. Five personnel were reportedly injured in a night attack by terrorists on the Gumbati police post in Bannu district (16.10.26).

4. CTD police and security forces killed Zahid Gul, an alleged commander affiliated with the Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group, in a joint operation in Walai Sagai, Lakki Marwat. He was reportedly the mastermind of the recent Kohat Police Lines bombing (16.10.26).

5. Five policemen were injured when armed men attacked the Gumbati checkpost in Wazir subdivision, Bannu district. During a subsequent search operation, security personnel recovered explosive devices from various locations, which the Bomb Disposal Squad safely defused (17.10.26).

6. The Bomb Disposal Squad (BDS) defused an explosive device at Gool Market in Inayat Kallay Bazaar, Bajaur district (17.10.26).

7. Four alleged terrorists were arrested and their hideouts destroyed during a search-and-strike operation in Nawarkhel, Jabbarkhel, Wanda Mir Alam, Darra Tang, Wanda Daulati, Land Ahmadkhel, Sultankhel, Kachi Kamar and Shenway in Lakki Marwat district (18.10.26).

8. Unidentified gunmen targeted the vehicle of District Police Officer Sajjad Hussain on the Mirali Bypass in North Waziristan district; however, he and his security personnel remained unharmed (18.10.26).

9. Three brothers, Hanifullah, Ibrahim Khan and Abbas Khan, were killed when unidentified assailants opened fire on them in a targeted attack in Khar Bazaar, Bajaur district (18.10.26).

10. Police Constable Muhammad Mehran was martyred when unidentified armed assailants ambushed him in the Sarwekai area of Upper South Waziristan (21.10.26).

11. A drone strike, reportedly on a suspected hideout linked to the Taliban’s “Gidhar Group” in Zarwam, Wazir subdivision, Bannu district, killed five suspected terrorists and injured seven others (20.10.26).

12. Two terrorists were killed and four police personnel – CTD DSP Imranuddin Khan, Latambar SHO Afzal Awan, Constable Kazim and BDU official Amjad – were martyred during an operation against terrorists in the Charpira Road, Khurram police station and Banda Daud Shah areas of Karak district (22.10.26).

13. The Bomb Disposal Unit (BDU), along with police, defused a 20-kilogram IED, foiling an alleged plot to target law-enforcement personnel near Wanda Shuja on Mianwali Road in Lakki Marwat district (24.10.26).

14. An explosive device detonated near the empty premises of an Afghan refugee camp in the Township area along the Bannu–Kohat Road in Bannu district; no casualties were reported (24.10.26).

15. Constable Haroon, posted at Saddar Police Station, was injured when unidentified assailants opened fire near Mewakhel in the Surani area of Bannu district (24.10.26).

16. Security forces killed six alleged TTP-linked terrorists during an operation in the Zarkani area of Dera Ismail Khan district, while Naik Ghulam Murtaza embraced martyrdom in the exchange of fire (24.10.26).

COMMENTS & ANALYSIS

According to a report by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), published in Dawn, Pakistan witnessed a significant improvement in its security situation during October 2026. Terrorist attacks declined by 37 per cent, from 226 in September to 143, reversing the trend of two consecutive months of rising terrorist violence. Fatalities resulting from terrorist attacks decreased by 57 per cent, from 260 to 111, while the number of injured fell by 71 per cent, from 242 to 69.

The combined impact of terrorist attacks and counterterrorism operations resulted in the deaths of 53 security forces personnel, 45 civilians, five peace committee members and 169 terrorists, while 71 people were injured, including 29 security forces personnel, 11 peace committee members and 31 civilians. PICSS noted that injuries resulting from terrorist attacks, as well as the combined injuries from terrorist attacks and security operations, were at their lowest monthly levels in the preceding 12 months; injuries among security forces personnel also touched a 12-month low.

Suicide attacks were also at their lowest level during the same period, with only one vehicle-borne suicide attack recorded in October, compared with three in September, two of which were vehicle-borne. The October incident caused no fatalities or injuries, whereas the September attacks had resulted in 45 deaths and 138 injuries, representing a 100 per cent reduction in fatalities and injuries from suicide attacks in October.

Meanwhile, continued counterterrorism operations across the country resulted in the killing of 156 terrorists and the arrest of seven suspected terrorists, although two security forces personnel and three civilians lost their lives, and two security personnel were injured, during these operations.

Regionally, Balochistan recorded a 46 per cent decline in terrorist attacks, from 132 in September to 71 in October. Fatalities fell from 136 to 44, a reduction of approximately 68 per cent, and injuries declined from 63 to 37, or 41 per cent. Security operations in the province killed 79 terrorists, while three civilians were killed and two security forces personnel were injured. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) also confirmed the martyrdom of an army major in an improvised explosive device (IED) attack in Balochistan during October.

Mainland Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, excluding the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), recorded 40 terrorist attacks compared with 58 in September, a decline of 31 per cent. Fatalities decreased from 90 to 38, approximately 58 per cent, while injuries dropped from 165 to 19, an 88 per cent reduction. Counterterrorism operations in the region resulted in the killing of 42 terrorists, while two security forces personnel lost their lives.

The erstwhile FATA region witnessed a comparatively modest decline of 12 per cent, with 30 attacks recorded against 34 in September. Fatalities fell from 33 to 25, although injuries increased slightly from 11 to 13, while security operations resulted in the killing of 35 terrorists.

Punjab recorded two terrorist attacks in October, compared with none in September, resulting in four deaths and no injuries, whereas Sindh witnessed no terrorist attacks, although security operations led to the arrest of seven suspected terrorists. Islamabad, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan also remained free of recorded terrorist attacks during the month.

Despite the overall improvement, kidnappings emerged as a serious security concern, particularly in Balochistan. A total of 88 people were kidnapped in terrorist incidents nationwide during October, compared with 72 in September – an increase of 22 per cent and the highest monthly figure in the preceding 12 months. Balochistan accounted for 70 cases, nearly 80 per cent of the national total.

The longer-term security outlook, however, remains challenging. Pakistan recorded 1,376 terrorist attacks during the first 10 months of 2026, while terrorist attacks and counterterrorism operations collectively resulted in 3,902 deaths, comprising 645 security forces personnel, 65 peace committee members, 595 civilians and 2,597 terrorists. A further 1,953 people were injured during this period, including 639 security forces personnel, 62 peace committee members, 1,055 civilians and 197 terrorists. Compared with the corresponding 10-month period of 2025, terrorist attacks increased by 53 per cent and the combined death toll rose by 36 per cent. Furthermore, despite the month-on-month decline in October, violence-related fatalities had increased sharply by 83 per cent during the third quarter of 2026, reversing the declining trend observed in the first and second quarters.

d injuries by 71%. However, the cumulative figures for the first ten months of 2026 remain concerning, with attacks increasing by 53% compared with the corresponding period in 2025.

PUNJAB

1. CTD police in Lahore claimed to have arrested eight suspected terrorists – Shehzad Akbar, Mahmood, Ali, Nauman, Adnan, Farooq, Rehman and Humayun – in Gujranwala, Bahawalpur, Chiniot, Rawalpindi, Bhakkar and Sargodha, recovering explosives, two hand grenades and banned material during 91 intelligence-based operations. Seven terrorism cases were registered (17.10.26).

2. A Lahore court granted the NCCIA a five-day remand of a 33-year-old man from Khanewal accused of selling over five million counterfeit US postage labels through LabelsBank.com, allegedly causing losses of $126 million to the US Postal Service. NCCIA Additional Director Atif Ameer said eight teams were investigating the case across Punjab, Islamabad and Sindh, involving 16 bank accounts (20.10.26).

SINDH

Cybercrime

Acting on a lead from a foreign crime investigation agency, the NCCIA traced the relevant IP address and prevented a teenage girl in Karachi, who had been influenced by a dark web group, from harming herself (25.10.26).

DEFENCE

1. The passing-out parade of four courses was held at the Pakistan Military Academy, Kakul, with cadets from Pakistan and eight friendly countries graduating. General Syed Aamer Raza, Commander National Strategic Command, reviewed the parade. Muhammad Junaid Jabbar received the Sword of Honour, while Bangladeshi cadet Riyad Mahmood Khan received the Chief of Defence Forces Overseas Gold Medal (17.10.26).

2. The newly appointed Saudi Ambassador to Pakistan, Dr Rajeh Tami Albugamy, met Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, COAS and CDF, at GHQ in Rawalpindi. They discussed regional security, the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement and enhanced defence cooperation between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia (19.10.26).

3. Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir met Maldivian President Dr Mohamed Muizzu in Islamabad to discuss regional security, defence cooperation, bilateral relations and joint efforts to promote peace and stability (22.10.26).

4. Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir visited Corps Headquarters, Peshawar, where he reviewed security operations and border management, praised the troops’ professionalism, and vowed to defeat Indian-sponsored terrorist groups with the support of the Pakistani people (23.10.26).

5. Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir and all ranks of the Pakistan Army expressed deep sorrow over the passing of former COAS General Abdul Waheed Kakar in Rawalpindi, paying tribute to his distinguished service and leadership and extending condolences to his bereaved family (26.10.26).

DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMY AND SECURITY

1. Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar discussed regional tensions with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, stressing diplomacy and condemning Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. The discussions took place amid the US–Iran conflict and the OIC meeting in Baghdad, Iraq, with Pakistan, Egypt, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia seeking greater coordination through the R-4 framework (18.10.26).

2. Trucks have remained stranded since 17 October, when Pakistan’s Ministry of Commerce suspended trade at the Gabd–Rimdan and Taftan crossings by withdrawing, with immediate effect, its 3 October trade order (24.10.26).

REGIONAL

AFGHANISTAN

1. Sergei Naryshkin, Head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), met Abdul Haq Wasiq, Afghanistan’s Director General of Intelligence, in Kabul on 14 October. Although neither side disclosed the purpose or details of the talks, media reports suggest that discussions focused on bilateral relations and intelligence cooperation. The visit coincided with Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev’s visit to Pakistan and India’s hosting of the India–Russia Special Mechanism on Pakistan and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Afghanistan’s Deputy Economy Minister stressed that stronger Kabul–Moscow ties are vital for stability and security in both countries and the wider region. Analysts view these developments as a reflection of Moscow’s growing security engagement and counterterrorism focus in Central Asia, particularly against transnational militant networks such as IS-K (15.10.26).

2. Qatar’s Minister of State for International Cooperation, Dr Maryam Al Misnad, called for an inclusive, Afghan-led political process and highlighted nearly USD 150 million in aid provided to Afghanistan since 2013. Separately, the UN reportedly warned that five million Afghans face emergency levels of hunger, while four million children and 1.3 million mothers are at risk of malnutrition (20, 23.10.26).

3. Stéphane Dujarric, spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General, citing the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), said at a briefing that five million people in Afghanistan are expected to face emergency levels of hunger, while four million children and 1.3 million mothers are at risk of malnutrition (23.10.26).

4. Afghanistan inaugurated the 121-km Wakhan Road on 4 October after three years of construction at a cost of $5.6 million. The Diplomat reports that the route aims to boost trade with China and reduce reliance on Pakistan. However, Chinese border restrictions, difficult terrain, security concerns, inadequate infrastructure and competition from existing Central Asian routes leave its economic potential uncertain (24.10.26).

5. Afghanistan’s Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, speaking in Khost, called for national unity, improved relations between citizens and security personnel, and reconciliation, stressing that security is a shared responsibility. He urged religious scholars, preachers and tribal elders to promote peace, solidarity and public awareness (26.10.26).

Afghanistan–Russia Relations

6. Russian troops from the 201st Guards Military Base in Tajikistan have arrived in southern Uzbekistan for the Hamkorlik-2026 joint military exercises, being held from 20 to 27 October at the Termez training ground near Afghanistan. Russian and Uzbek forces will practise neutralising armed groups, particularly in border areas, using drones, robotic systems and attack helicopters, thereby strengthening military cooperation between the two countries (20.10.26).

Afghanistan–Iran Relations

7. Iran has granted temporary protection to nearly 10,000 former Afghan military personnel and hosts 770,000 registered refugees, and has urged greater international support amid declining aid and health insurance coverage. Iran Air plans to resume Tehran–Kabul flights on 23 October and hopes to restore the Mashhad–Kabul route. Meanwhile, Khaama Press reported that a Chinese freight train carrying goods worth 8 million yuan departed for Hairatan via Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, offering a potential alternative to Pakistan’s Karachi port. China has also reportedly announced customs duty reductions of 70–80 per cent for Afghan goods, although Afghanistan’s railway network remains limited (16, 21, 23.10.26).

Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations

8. Pakistan’s UN representative Syed Atif Raza urged efforts to prevent armed groups in Afghanistan from accessing weapons. About $7.1 billion worth of US-supplied military equipment remained in Afghanistan after the 2021 withdrawal and is now in the hands of all sorts of terrorist groups, especially the TTP. The Taliban administration remained unmoved and, instead of heeding Pakistan’s jeremiad, condemned Pakistan’s strikes on terrorist hideouts inside Afghanistan as violations of Afghan sovereignty. Afghan spokespersons Zabihullah Mujahid and Hamdullah Fitrat rejected Pakistan’s allegations, warning that blaming Afghanistan for Pakistan’s insecurity threatens regional stability. Pakistan’s Information Ministry denied Zalmay Khalilzad’s claims that it had recruited Afghans to fight the Taliban. Citing UN reports on terrorist groups, including the TTP and Al-Qaeda, operating in Afghanistan, Pakistan urged the Afghan Taliban to prevent terrorism against Pakistan (22–24.10.26).

CENTRAL ASIA

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on 19 October before travelling to India. The visit aimed to expand American trade, investment, critical-mineral access and security cooperation in Central Asia amid competition with Russia and China. Uzbekistan announced 54 agreements worth about $12 billion, although their implementation remains uncertain. The C5+1 meeting also focused on regional connectivity, mineral processing and counterterrorism. Analysts believe that as Central Asian states diversify their partnerships while balancing ties with Washington, Moscow and Beijing, Russia’s and China’s responses to the evolving geopolitical and economic landscape in the region remain to be seen (20.10.26).

ILLEGALLY INDIAN OCCUPIED JAMMU AND KASHMIR (IIOJK) / LOC

1. A drone was found abandoned in a paddy field near the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu, and authorities are investigating its origin and possible flight path (23.10.26).

2. A special NIA court in New Delhi has ordered a trial against Kashmiri freedom fighter Yasin Malik, Zahoor Ahmed Shah Watali, Abdul Rashid Sheikh, Shabir Ahmad Shah, Naval Kishore Kapoor, Trison Farms and Construction Pvt Ltd, and Masarat Alam Bhat in an Rs 8.9 crore money-laundering case (24.10.26).

3. IIOJK Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah said in Srinagar on 24 October that Pakistan had kept the Kashmir issue alive internationally, and expressed little hope for Kashmiris from the central government. He urged Kashmiris to protect their identity, alleged oppression of Muslims in BJP-ruled states, and criticised the exploitation of Hindu–Muslim divisions for political gain, while reaffirming Kashmir’s accession to India (24.10.26).

4. Reacting sharply to Farooq Abdullah’s statement, IIOJK BJP spokesperson Altaf Thakur demanded police action against him and called his pro-Pakistan remarks “seditious” and anti-national. He accused Abdullah of legitimising Pakistan’s narrative on Kashmir and said that if he loved Pakistan so much, he should go there. He blamed Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism and causing decades of violence in J&K, alleging that it had brought terrorism, bloodshed, fear and uncertainty to Kashmir. He further alleged that National Conference leaders often overlooked the sacrifices of security personnel and civilians. Thakur said Kashmiris wanted peace and progress rather than rhetoric that benefits Pakistan’s propaganda (24.10.26).

INDIA

(Defence)

1. The Indian Army is revamping its Directorate of Indigenisation (DoI), established in 2010 under the DGEME at Army Headquarters, to promote self-reliance through local defence production, upgrades and indigenous R&D. India’s defence production reached a record Rs 1.78 lakh crore in FY 2025–26, up 15.6 per cent from 2024–25 and 110 per cent since 2020–21 (20.10.26).

2. Indian Army Chief General Dhiraj Seth chaired the three-day Army Commanders’ Conference in New Delhi, on the concluding day of which Defence Minister Rajnath Singh launched the Land Warfare Doctrine 2026. The doctrine emphasises AI, drones, precision targeting, multi-domain operations, specialised AI and drone training, and lessons from Operation Sindoor. Aligned with Defence Forces Vision 2047, it prioritises jointness, self-reliance, indigenous technology, resilient logistics and battlefield adaptability (21–23.10.26).

3. Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) Director General Shatrujeet Kapoor confirmed ongoing India–China face-offs at several locations in Arunachal Pradesh while addressing ITBP personnel, known as Himveers, in Alwar on 22 October, during which he also praised the Shaurya Commandos. He noted China’s military advances and the potential of drones. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh criticised Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government for its silence, alleging Chinese gains in patrolling access, the renaming of towns and dam construction in Arunachal Pradesh (23.10.26).

4. Defence Secretary Rajesh Singh said India is fast-tracking the procurement of drones, counter-drone systems, mobile artillery and radars, while expanding arms exports to over 80 countries, including in Europe. He highlighted India–EU defence cooperation, the proposed theatre commands, and plans for joint defence technology development, co-production and integration into global supply chains (24.10.26).

5. Indian Air Force (IAF) Chief AP Singh told API that Operation Sindoor demonstrated the IAF’s strike capabilities across the western front, reaffirming air power’s role in national defence and strategic deterrence. Launched in response to the Pahalgam terror attack, the operation targeted alleged terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan in May 2025. He added that Defence Vision 2047 aims to make the IAF a globally capable, innovative and technologically self-reliant aerospace force (25.10.26).

6. Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the Indian Air Force’s “Wings over Ganges” air show at Namo Ghat in Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, accompanied by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, Governor Anandiben Patel and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. The three-day event marked the IAF’s 94th anniversary and featured fighter jets, including the Rafale, Sukhoi-30 MKI, Tejas, Mirage 2000, MiG-29 and Jaguar, along with the Surya Kiran aerobatic team and the Sarang helicopter display team.

7. The Appointments Committee of the Cabinet (ACC) approved a one-year extension in service for Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh, an IAS officer, until 31 October 2027. Earlier, several other senior Indian officials had received tenure extensions, including Cabinet Secretary TV Somanathan, Home Secretary Govind Mohan, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, AYUSH Secretary Vaidya Rajesh Kotecha, NSA Ajit Doval, IB Director Tapan Kumar Deka and ED Director Rahul Navin (25.10.26).

(Diplomatic Developments, Economy, Security and Politics)

8. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Mumbai and Jamnagar, India, on 21–23 October 2026 to strengthen trade, energy, defence and technology ties. Talks with Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar covered regional security and progress towards deeper strategic cooperation, including a bilateral trade deal, while differences over tariffs and India’s Russian oil imports remain key challenges (20–21.10.26).

9. Union Home Minister Amit Shah said that Operation Trident, conducted on 23 October, targeted 38 locations across Assam, Mizoram and Manipur, busting an international drug cartel, arresting 18 people and uncovering Rs 100 crore in hawala transactions. He said the operation supports the Modi government’s goal of eradicating drug networks by 31 December 2029 (24.10.26).

10. Indian Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann expressed a desire to attend the 4th World Punjabi Conference in Lahore on 27–29 November after receiving an invitation. He criticised the BJP-led government over travel restrictions, saying people on both sides share common roots, culture and problems. Mann also called for the reopening of the Kartarpur Corridor. India–Pakistan relations remain strained following last year’s four-day conflict, although social media users on both sides welcomed his wish to attend the conference, according to the BBC (24.10.26).

IRAN

Law and Order / Security

Two Iranian security personnel – Basij paramilitary officer Afsaneh Aqila and police officer Muhammad Ali Shahriar – were reportedly killed by unknown assailants in separate attacks in Sistan and Baluchestan province (15.10.26).

Iran–US–Israel Conflict

1. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reportedly visited Tehran and met President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to discuss regional security, the Iran–US conflict, the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation efforts. Both sides reaffirmed cooperation in energy, trade and nuclear power. Analysts believe Moscow seeks a greater role, preserving its geopolitical and economic influence not only in Iran but also in the Gulf, while strengthening its diplomatic role and strategic partnership with Tehran (19.10.26).

2. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly made an unannounced visit to Israel on 19 October 2026, meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Ovda Air Base in southern Israel. They discussed regional security, Iran and US–Israeli military cooperation amid rising tensions and reports of possible renewed US strikes against Iran. Analysts say the visit underscored close military and strategic coordination that would endure beyond any political change in Israel resulting from the 27 October polls, though no specific operational decisions were disclosed (19.10.26).

3. Pakistan’s Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir and Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior officials in Tehran to discuss mediation. Iran seeks an end to hostilities, sanctions and the US blockade, while Washington demands reduced uranium enrichment. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed the mediation efforts by Pakistan and Qatar but reiterated President Donald Trump’s opposition to any deal allowing Iran to develop nuclear weapons (20–21.10.26).

4. The US is reportedly deploying up to 10,000 additional sailors and Marines, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, to the Middle East by late November, amid reports that President Donald Trump is considering renewed strikes against Iran. The deployment would reinforce the existing US presence of around 50,000 troops in the region, expanding Washington’s military options, Fox News and Al Jazeera reported (21.10.26).

5. The US is pressuring Iraq to close more border crossings with Iran. Baghdad has shut the al-Sheeb crossing to passengers, vehicles and commercial trucks until further notice, reportedly on the Iraqi Prime Minister’s orders, AFP and Iran’s Mizan Online reported (21.10.26).

6. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in an interview with al-Raqia, warned that any Egyptian or foreign intervention in Yemen’s war would complicate efforts to resolve the conflict, adding that Egypt had indicated it would not join the war (21.10.26).

7. Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton reportedly sent a memo to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on 23 October, warning of alleged Iranian plots targeting American diplomats and officials. The memo said some assassination plots had reached advanced stages but provided no specific details. According to Axios, the US ordered staff reductions at diplomatic missions in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan amid concerns over possible Houthi attacks and renewed US–Israeli military operations against Iran (23.10.26).

8. Russia’s embassy in Tehran denied reports that its diplomats and specialists at Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant planned to evacuate, calling the claims “fake” and confirming that work continues as normal despite repeated attacks on the facility during the ongoing US–Israel war on Iran (25.10.26).

9. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the US cannot force Iran to submit through media pressure or military threats, warning that Tehran would respond forcefully to any violation of its territorial integrity and would not be intimidated by threats of war or assassination (25.10.26).

10. Senior officials from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, members of the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, are reportedly due to visit Tehran on 26 October 2026 for high-level discussions with Iranian officials. The main objective is to reduce regional tensions, coordinate security efforts and support diplomatic initiatives to prevent a wider conflict, Reuters reported (26.10.26).

MIDDLE EAST / GULF

1. US President Donald Trump has endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of Israel’s 27 October parliamentary election, praising his leadership and cooperation in the war against Iran. However, declining public support for Trump in Israel, and polls suggesting that Netanyahu’s right-wing, Likud-led coalition may lose its majority, have created uncertainty over his political future. The election could determine whether Netanyahu remains in power or opposition parties form a new government (19.10.26).

2. Pakistan, Qatar, Türkiye and Indonesia reportedly signed the Badr Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Qatar on Wednesday to strengthen defence production and military capabilities, with Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif representing Islamabad (20.10.26).

3. The Saudi-led coalition intercepted a Houthi missile targeting Riyadh, where explosions were heard. Saudi Arabia issued brief safety warnings for Makkah, Jeddah, Taif and Yanbu. A Saudi airstrike on Houthi-controlled Sanaa reportedly killed three people and wounded several others. Meanwhile, fuel and medical shortages in Taiz, Yemen, threatened over 1,100 kidney failure patients, forcing doctors to shorten dialysis sessions (24.10.26).

4. Israeli forces launched a multi-day operation in the occupied West Bank after an attack killed two soldiers, conducting searches and demolitions in the Hebron area. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged tougher security measures ahead of the election. Hamas praised the attack and urged further attacks (24.10.26).