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The Strategic Brief

Security at a Glance

Strategic Brief - Counter Terrorism - October 4, 2026
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16–30 September 2026

Domestic

Balochistan

  1. Five people, including a policeman, were killed and one was injured in an armed attack on the camp of PPP leader and tribal elder Mir Shafiqur Rehman Mengal in Aranji, Wadh Tehsil, Khuzdar district (17.9.26).
  2. Security forces killed three alleged BLA-linked terrorists during an operation in the Badrang area of Awaran district (17.9.26).
  3. Security forces killed seven alleged BLA-linked terrorists and injured several others during two operations in the Fateh Ali area of Panjgur district and the Dhadar area of Kachi district (18.9.26).
  4. Police recovered eight bullet-riddled bodies from Panjgur and Gwadar districts; five of them were found in Gwargo and Jiwani. Two of the victims were identified as Shafiq and Saleem Kata (18.9.26).
  5. Ghayoor Buzdar, an officer of the AG Office, was gunned down by unidentified armed men in the Sabzal Road area of Quetta (18.9.26).
  6. Security forces killed 11 terrorists allegedly affiliated with the BLA in separate operations in Panjgur and Chagai districts (19.9.26).
  7. Security forces killed five alleged BLA/BLF terrorists and recovered 23 kidnapped individuals from their custody during an operation along the N-25 Karachi–Chaman Highway near Kalat district. The outlawed group had reportedly set up checkpoints on the night of 18–19 September to abduct people for ransom, extortion and vehicle snatching (20.9.26).
  8. Kharan DC Munir Soomro was reportedly kidnapped by unidentified armed men while travelling from Quetta, in the Lajah area of Kharan district. Separately, cricketers Zakir and Wadan Bugti were reportedly kidnapped near the Kachhi Canal area of Dera Bugti district (20.9.26).
  9. Security forces killed four terrorists affiliated with a banned organisation during an operation in the Koh Prom and Aphan areas of Panjgur district (22.9.26).
  10. Two policemen escorting a polio vaccination team were martyred by unidentified armed motorcyclists in Noshki district (23.9.26).
  11. Six terrorists allegedly linked to the proscribed BLA/BLF were reportedly killed and nine others arrested during an operation in the Saran Tangi area of Quetta district (23.9.26).
  12. Security forces killed 19 alleged BLA/BLF and TTP terrorists during multiple operations across the province, including in the Shaban area of Quetta district; Subedar Muhammad Jamil was martyred in an exchange of fire (24.9.26).
  13. At least eight suspected terrorists were killed in a clash with the pro-government Bugti Peace Force in Loti, Dera Bugti district. One policeman was martyred and three members of the Peace Force were injured (27.9.26).
  14. Security forces launched Operation Shaban in Shaban, Quetta, on 21 September 2026, targeting hideouts of “Fitna al-Khawarij” and “Fitna al-Hindustan”, the terms generally used by Pakistani authorities for the proscribed TTP and BLA/BLF respectively. Thirty-three terrorists were reportedly killed, and weapons and explosives were recovered. By 25 September, separate operations in Nushki and Mand had reportedly killed 17 more terrorists, bringing the claimed total to over 71 across Balochistan in 96 hours, according to Pakistani security authorities (27.9.26).
  15. A bomb blast destroyed a local hotel in Khadkocha Tehsil of Mastung district, partially damaging nearby houses (28.9.26).
  16. Security forces killed two terrorists allegedly linked with the BLA during an operation in the Nackocha area of Chagai district (29.9.26).
  17. The bullet-riddled bodies of three Afghan nationals—Salim Akbar, Sher Agah and Najeebuddin—were found in the Garok River in Turbat, Kech district, while another Afghan national had been found injured the previous day (30.9.26).

Islamabad

  1. The NCCIA, led by DG Syed Ali Nasir Rizvi, raided illegal “call centres” in Islamabad’s E-11 and G-10 sectors, arresting 212 Chinese and Pakistani suspects allegedly involved in international cyber fraud and data transfers linked to India and Brazil. Authorities seized 306 phones, 383 computers and 299 monitors/laptops; further investigations are underway (23.9.26).

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)

  1. Security forces reportedly killed 10 terrorists (6+4), allegedly linked to the proscribed TTP, in separate operations in North Waziristan and Hangu districts, while an IED attack on a security forces’ convoy martyred six soldiers (15–17.9.26).
  2. A civilian and a policeman were injured when a powerful vehicle-borne IED exploded on the Indus Highway, damaging the outer wall of the Sra Khawra Check Post in Peshawar district (16.9.26).
  3. Special Branch Sub-Inspector Qamar Zaman was martyred by unidentified armed assailants at his hujra within the jurisdiction of Kalu Khan Police Station in Swabi district (17.9.26).
  4. The bullet-riddled bodies of three unidentified men were found in different areas of Talagai, Domel Tehsil, and the Garira Shahjahan area of Bannu district (17.9.26).
  5. Unidentified armed men set road-construction machinery on fire at the Mirza Jan Brick Kiln on Derdariz Road, within the jurisdiction of Havid Police Station in Bannu district (17.9.26).
  6. A suspected quadcopter dropped explosives on Mera Police Post in Gulshan Abad, Mattani, Peshawar district; no casualties or property damage were reported. A day earlier, a vehicle-borne IED attack using a loader rickshaw had reportedly injured a civilian and a policeman and damaged the outer wall of the Sra Khawra Check Post near Mattani (17–18.9.26).
  7. Asfandyar Ahmad, Judicial Superintendent of the South Waziristan District Sessions Court, was reportedly abducted by unidentified men from his residence in Tank district (19.9.26).
  8. At least 28 people, including 15 police officials, were killed and more than 100 wounded in a suicide attack on a mosque during Friday prayers at Police Lines, Kohat, followed by an assault on police facilities; eight alleged terrorists were killed by police and security forces in the ensuing exchange of fire (19.9.26).
    Analysis and Comments: The incident appeared to be a complex, coordinated terrorist attack targeting both innocent worshippers and Pakistan’s security institutions, particularly the police and security forces. It demonstrated the attackers’ ability to penetrate a highly fortified location and inflict heavy damage, with the apparent aim of “do and die, or flee”. Security experts believe such attacks may not be possible without the support of hostile foreign agencies pursuing their anti-Pakistan designs. An in-depth article, “Kohat Police Lines Massacre: A Failure Foretold?”, by security analyst Dr. Naveed Elahi was published on StrategicBrief.com on 21 September 2026.
  9. Three mortar shells, reportedly fired from the Afghan side, landed near a security post along the Shandra border in Baizai Tehsil of Mohmand district (20.9.26).
  10. Two FC personnel, Havaldar Ishaq and Sepoy Umar Hayat, were reported missing from the Sifan Kozikhel area of Kuram Garhi, within the jurisdiction of Cantt Police Station in Bannu district (20.9.26).
  11. Unidentified terrorists reportedly carried out a drone attack on a house in Kharsind, a mountainous area inhabited by the Hathikhel tribe in Bannu district, injuring a man and his son (20.9.26).
  12. Security forces reportedly killed eight alleged TTP-affiliated terrorists in an exchange of fire following an attack on their convoy in Hangu district; six security personnel, including Captain Abuzar Farooq and Lieutenant Sheraz Babar, were martyred (20.9.26).
  13. Police arrested a 19-year-old Afghan national in the Shaikhan area on the outskirts of Peshawar for allegedly exhuming and desecrating a baby girl’s body; SP Fida Hussain said it was his third such attempt (22.9.26).
  14. Security forces reportedly shot down eight alleged Afghan Taliban drones after they entered Pakistani airspace—four near the Torkham border in Khyber district and four near Kohat—using air-defence systems (23.9.26).
  15. Security forces reportedly foiled a terrorist infiltration attempt into Kurram district from Afghan Taliban posts in Nangarhar and Paktia, which was followed by firing on Pakistani border posts; Pakistani forces reportedly responded with artillery and heavy weapons, forcing the attackers to abandon several positions (23.9.26).
  16. Police claimed to have killed two alleged terrorists in an exchange of fire during an operation in the Lora Ghada area of Garira Shahjahan in Bannu district (23.9.26).
  17. Security forces reportedly killed eight alleged TTP-affiliated terrorists during an operation in North Waziristan district (24.9.26).
  18. A house in Azadkhel, Lakki Marwat, was partially damaged in a terrorist quadcopter attack; its occupants were unharmed (26.9.26).
  19. Three villagers—Umair, Sadiq Amin and Aliyan—were killed and several others injured when unidentified armed men opened fire on them near Abdulkhel, Dera Pezu, Lakki Marwat district (26.9.26).
  20. A terrorist commander identified as Manzoor was reportedly killed in a joint police and CTD operation in Abdulkhel, Lakki Marwat district (27.9.26).
  21. Unidentified terrorists took 13 people hostage in the mountainous Hathikhel area of Wazir, amid tensions with a local peace committee and the police; the hostages were reportedly freed later after negotiations with local tribal elders (25, 28.9.26).
  22. At least 12 people, including a Customs official, were killed and 35 injured in a blast at the Aman Mela joint check post near Darazinda, Dera Ismail Khan, reportedly caused by an explosive-laden tractor trolley and followed by intense firing. Later, two Rescue 1122 workers, Imtiaz and Sharifullah, were reportedly killed and two others injured when an ambulance carrying the victims’ bodies came under fire near the check post. CTD police registered a case against the TTP’s Sherani faction and the Mishal Group for their alleged involvement in the incident (26, 28.9.26).
  23. Three traffic policemen were killed and three others injured when unidentified gunmen attacked a traffic police van in Tank district (28.9.26).
  24. Security forces killed four terrorists allegedly affiliated with the TTP in Dera Ismail Khan district (29.9.26).
  25. A teenage female seminary student was shot dead in Lambi Dehri, Mansehra, while returning home with her classmates; police are investigating the unidentified attacker (29.9.26).
  26. Two people, including trader Ismail Khan Zargar, were killed when unidentified gunmen attacked their vehicle with automatic weapons in Inayat Kallay Bazaar, Bajaur district (29.9.26).
  27. Security forces killed three terrorists during an operation in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan district (30.9.26).

Punjab

  1. CTD police reportedly arrested two alleged TTP-affiliated operatives, Mahtab Ahmad and Muhammad Shahid, both residents of Tank district, during a raid at Fato Mor in Sahiwal district (16.9.26).
  2. An alleged agent of the Indian intelligence agency RAW, identified as Wajid Ali, a resident of Bajaur district, was arrested by CTD police in an IBO near New Ghala Mandi, Pakpattan. Police recovered 1,825 grams of explosives, allegedly intended for attacks on sensitive and security installations (23.9.26).
  3. CTD police reportedly arrested an alleged TTP operative, Abdur Raheem, during a raid in a village in Pakpattan district (29.9.26).
  4. A judicial magistrate granted police a six-day physical remand of two suspects in the alleged gang-rape of an Azerbaijani woman on the night of 26/27 September. The woman had travelled to Lahore for business and was staying in a rented flat near Raiwind, Lahore (29.9.26).

Sindh

  1. Police Constable Asmatullah was martyred and another constable sustained bullet wounds in an attack by unknown armed men on Shahrah-e-Faisal near Karachi Airport (16.9.26).
  2. Two suspected terrorists allegedly linked to the BLA/BLF were killed by CTD police, supported by an intelligence agency, during an alleged encounter in Ghazi Goth, Kacha Road, in the Mangopir area of Karachi (19.9.26).

Defence

  1. Indonesian Navy Chief Admiral Dr Muhammad Ali visited Naval Headquarters, Islamabad, and met Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Naveed Ashraf to discuss regional maritime security and the strengthening of Pakistan–Indonesia naval cooperation through training, reciprocal visits and joint exercises (15.9.26).
  2. A delegation of the US-based defence company POWERUS, led by Mr Robert Bret Velicovich, met Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, COAS and CDF, at GHQ, Rawalpindi, to discuss defence technology, procurement, production, capacity building and potential areas of cooperation (16.9.26).
  3. Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Naveed Ashraf visited units deployed in Karachi’s sea and creek areas during SeaSpark 2026 to review the ongoing maritime exercise, which focuses on modern information systems, multidimensional operations and automated technologies to enhance the Pakistan Navy’s maritime defence and security capabilities (20.9.26).
  4. Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir visited Corps HQ Peshawar, where he was briefed on KP’s security situation, counter-terrorism operations, border management and operational readiness. He praised the troops’ morale and professionalism, stressed vigilance, and reaffirmed the Armed Forces’ resolve against terrorism (22.9.26).
  5. French Secretary General for Defence and National Security Nicolas Roche and Ambassador Jean-Noël Poirier met Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir at GHQ, Rawalpindi, to discuss regional security and the strengthening of Pakistan–France defence and security cooperation (22.9.26).
  6. The two-week Pakistan–Russia Druzhba-IX and Pakistan–Oman Washaq Al Jabal-II joint exercises commenced at Cherat and NCTC Pabbi respectively, focusing on counter-terrorism training, operational coordination and the strengthening of bilateral defence cooperation (22.9.26).
  7. The Pakistan Navy and Pakistan Coast Guards, coordinating through the JMICC, foiled a smuggling attempt in Pishukan, Balochistan, seizing a large quantity of liquor and illegal medicines (23.9.26).
  8. Speaker of the Maldives’ People’s Majlis Abdul Raheem Abdullah met Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir at GHQ, Rawalpindi, and discussed regional security, bilateral cooperation and the strengthening of Pakistan–Maldives ties (24.9.26).
  9. The defence chiefs of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye reviewed threats to Saudi Arabia and condemned reported attacks on Makkah and on civilian and economic infrastructure. They agreed to strengthen intelligence sharing, military coordination and capability integration, reaffirming collective defence and the implementation of the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (25.9.26).
  10. Pakistan Navy ships HUNAIN and YARMOOK seized over 2,800 kg of narcotics worth approximately $750 million during a joint counter-narcotics operation in the Arabian Sea. Naval Chief Admiral Naveed Ashraf commended the crews and reaffirmed the Navy’s commitment to maritime security (26.9.26).
  11. The Pakistan Navy’s newly inducted submarine PNS/M HANGOR conducted its maiden live weapon firing in the North Arabian Sea, successfully striking a designated long-range target with an anti-ship cruise missile, witnessed by Naval Chief Admiral Naveed Ashraf (27.9.26).
  12. A US Afghanistan War Commission delegation, led by Shamila N. Chaudhary and Dr Colin F. Jackson, met Field Marshal Asim Munir at GHQ, Rawalpindi, and acknowledged Pakistan’s role and sacrifices during the Afghanistan conflict. The discussions covered regional security and Afghanistan, with Munir highlighting Pakistan’s experience and the need for a regional perspective. The delegation is reviewing the United States’ 20-year engagement in Afghanistan (28.9.26).

Diplomatic Developments / Economy

  1. On 15 September, an Indian Navy vessel reportedly collided with a Pakistani naval ship during Pakistan’s SEASPARK-26 exercise in Pakistan’s Exclusive Economic Zone. The Foreign Office, Islamabad, lodged a formal protest with India on 16 September, citing international law and the 1991 bilateral agreement on military exercises (17.9.26).
  2. ISPR DG Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry said Pakistan would go to “any extent” to defend Saudi Arabia, reaffirming its “unconditional” commitment to the kingdom’s security amid escalating Saudi–Houthi tensions (18.9.26).
  3. Adviser to the National Command Authority and former DG SPD Lt Gen (retd) Mazhar Jamil warned that regional tensions, the Kashmir dispute, weakening arms-control frameworks and emerging technologies were challenging strategic stability, while Maj Gen (retd) Shahab Shahid called for balanced arms-control and non-proliferation measures (18.9.26).
  4. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed an agreement abolishing visa requirements for holders of diplomatic, official and special passports during a meeting on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York (22.9.26).
  5. Deputy PM Ishaq Dar said India could not disregard its international obligations, stressing that the Indus Waters Treaty remains in force following the Permanent Court of Arbitration’s August ruling (22.9.26).
  6. Pakistan appointed retired Lt Gen Nauman Mahmood as the first Secretary General of the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement (MJDA), for a three-year term based in Riyadh (23.9.26).
  7. Sikh pilgrims protested India’s closure of the Kartarpur Corridor during the celebrations of Baba Guru Nanak’s 487th death anniversary at Gurdwara Darbar Sahib, demanding its immediate reopening (23.9.26).
  8. Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, speaking in Islamabad, warned that India’s suspension of the IWT could set a wider precedent for global transboundary water governance, and urged the international community to take note (29.9.26).
  9. Pakistan’s Foreign Office expressed condolences over the deaths of five crew members, including three Pakistanis, during the recovery operation of the hijacked MT Honour 25 off Somalia. The Palau-flagged tanker, carrying 19 crew members including 10 Pakistanis, was recovered by Puntland’s maritime police (30.9.26).

Regional

Afghanistan

Afghanistan Security Developments

  1. Ahmad Massoud appointed Saleh Mohammad Registani as NRF operations commander. The Afghanistan Freedom Front, the United Front and the NRF claimed more than 50 attacks on Taliban forces, including in Badakhshan. An ammunition explosion damaged a security post in Herat without civilian casualties, while a mortar-shell explosion killed three children aged 7–10 in Zawa, Khugiani, Nangarhar (22, 23, 29.9.26).
  2. Amanullah Chehra, Head of Badakhshan Rehabilitation and Rural Development, said the 121.13-km Silk Route highway from Barghil to Bzai Gonbad in the Wakhan Corridor, Badakhshan, has been completed after five years. The 7–10-metre-wide road has three major bridges and will improve connectivity with China (23.9.26).
  3. Hamdullah Mohib, NSA of the former Afghan government, accused former US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad of a “great betrayal” over the Doha Agreement, alleging that it sidelined Kabul and contributed to the 2021 collapse. Khalilzad attributed the collapse to Afghan political divisions and security failures (18.9.26).
  4. Ahmad Jan Bilal and Mohammad Nasir Rahimi, senior officials of an IEA company, met Iran’s Energy Minister Mohsen Paknejad in Tehran to discuss cooperation on oil, gas, energy, water and wastewater. Abbas Aliabadi offered Afghanistan up to 2,000 MW of electricity (20.9.26).
  5. Ariana Afghan Airlines increased its Kabul–New Delhi cargo flights from one to two daily. UNAMA’s incoming chief Rabab Fatima met Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri in New York, where India reaffirmed its humanitarian support and support for UNAMA. Fatima will succeed Roza Otunbayeva (27–28.9.26).

Pakistan–Afghanistan: Worsening Relations and Armed Conflict

  • Türkiye–Afghanistan/Pakistan engagement: Türkiye’s MIT chief Ibrahim Kalın met IEA intelligence chief Abdul Haq Wasiq and ministers Abdul Ghani Baradar, Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mawlawi Mohammad Yaqoob Mujahid in Kabul and Kandahar, before visiting Islamabad to discuss security, counter-terrorism and Pakistan–Afghanistan tensions (16–17.9.26).
  • TTP and the Kohat mosque attack: IEA spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid denied that the banned TTP operated from Afghan soil and warned of a “crushing response” to any territorial violation. Pakistan alleged that the perpetrators of the 19 September Kohat mosque attack had “roots in Afghanistan” and urged action against militant networks (16–18.9.26).
  • Pakistani airstrikes: Pakistan Air Force struck at TTP hideouts inside Afghanistan and destroyed three targets and killed 28 terrorists. Reports also cited clashes, and Pakistani strikes on 10 locations in Khost, Paktia, Kandahar, Kunar and Paktika following eight drone incursions (20–24.9.26).
  • Nuristan clashes: The Afghanistan Freedom Front claimed to have captured several Taliban checkpoints in Kamdesh, Nuristan, although casualties and territorial gains remain unverified. The Taliban Defence Ministry claimed its forces killed 28 and captured 32 militants attempting to enter Nuristan across the Durand Line, alleging Pakistani support and training (27.9.26).
  • Pakistan’s response: Pakistan rejected the allegations as “frivolous, baseless and devoid of any truth” and denied supporting the recruitment or training of former Afghan forces personnel or facilitating Daesh and other terrorist groups in Nuristan or elsewhere in Afghanistan (28.9.26).

Bangladesh

Bangladesh and the US signed an MoU on civil nuclear cooperation in New York, covering safety, security, safeguards and technology. The agreement provides a framework for cooperation, not a commitment to build a US-designed nuclear plant. Analysts view the deal as a way for Bangladesh to diversify its nuclear partnerships while Russia remains central to the Rooppur nuclear power project. The emerging pattern is one of Bangladesh diversifying its partnerships among Russia, China and the US, while China appears to be responding by strengthening its own nuclear and economic engagement rather than treating the US MoU as a direct confrontation. For India, it adds another strategic actor to its neighbourhood without creating a US nuclear or military base. For Pakistan, the development has mainly diplomatic and regional significance and does not create a direct nuclear or military alignment (25.9.26).

China

Chinese President visits the USA

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington from 23–25 September 2026 and his meetings with President Donald Trump resulted in renewed US–China dialogue on trade, AI and crisis communication. The two sides agreed to extend the trade truce by two months and to pursue tariff reductions covering about $30 billion in goods. The summit emphasised managing competition and maintaining strategic stability, with both leaders reportedly planning further meetings, possibly later in 2026. However, major differences over Taiwan, technology, Iran and broader security issues remained unresolved (27.9.26).

Illegally Indian-Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) / LoC

  1. IIOJK Kashmir region IG Police Sujit Kumar directed the realignment of security checkpoints around Srinagar to ease traffic congestion and strengthen security coverage, during a security-review-cum-traffic-management meeting (21.9.26).
  2. Two police personnel, HC Fareed Ahmad and Constable Yaqoob, were found unconscious under suspicious circumstances inside a car at Ziarat Morh in the Sana area of Batote Tehsil, Ramban district, and later died (22.9.26).
  3. Four CISF personnel, including an Assistant Commandant, were killed in an apparent fratricide incident while guarding the Sewa-III power project in Mashka village, Kathua district, bordering Himachal Pradesh, according to the authorities (29.9.26).
  4. Indian security forces reportedly killed an innocent Kashmiri youth, Mohammad Asif, alias Hashim Moosa, in a fake encounter in the Yousmarg forests of Budgam district, allegedly branding him a militant commander. His close friend Yasir, alias Abu Talha, had been killed in a similar manner on 5 September in the Budgam forests (30.9.26).

India

Defence

  1. Army–BSF Synergy Conference: The Army–BSF Annual Synergy Conference 2026 was held on 18 September at Chandimandir Military Station under the chairmanship of Lt Gen Pushpendra Singh, with the BSF delegation led by Satish S. Khandare. Discussions focused on joint operations, coordination, information sharing, logistics and counter-drone capabilities (19.9.26).
  2. Army Chief’s visit to Russia: Indian Army Chief Gen Dhiraj Seth visited Russia from 16–18 September for discussions on defence cooperation and military-to-military engagement, including Russian-origin equipment, spare parts, procurement, modernisation, joint development and licensed production (19.9.26).
  3. Exercise Yudh Abhyas 2026: The India–US joint exercise began on 15 September at Auli, Uttarakhand, and the Mahajan Field Firing Ranges, Rajasthan, involving about 1,200 troops. It focuses on mountain warfare, drones, robotic systems, interoperability and joint planning, within broader India–US defence cooperation that includes Javelin systems, technology transfer and co-production (24–25.9.26).
  4. Multi-tier anti-drone protection: The Indian Army is reportedly developing multi-tier anti-drone protection for high-value installations in the western sector. An Army RFI dated 25 September 2026 proposes three-layer steel-mesh structures of about 37 m × 20 m to intercept drones, complementing guns, lasers and electronic jamming systems (25.9.26).
  5. Army Chief’s LoC review: Gen Dhiraj Seth reviewed operational preparedness and security along the Line of Control during a reported two-day visit to IIOJK, covering the operational area of 15 Corps in Kupwara, Budgam and Tangdhar, and emphasised vigilance, intelligence-led operations and mission readiness (25–26.9.26).
  6. Exercise Tarang Shakti 2026: US F-35 fighters arrived at Jodhpur ahead of the multinational air exercise, which commenced on 26 September, with flying operations scheduled from 28 September. Eight countries deployed air assets, while 32 participated as observers; the exercise includes large-force engagements, dynamic targeting, air mobility and combat search-and-rescue (27.9.26).
  7. IAF inflatable decoys: The Indian Air Force (IAF) is reportedly looking to procure around 400 inflatable decoys designed primarily to replicate Su-30MKI, Rafale and Tejas Mk1A fighters. Reports also mention S-400 decoys, although details remain limited. The decoys are intended to confuse enemy ISR systems and divert precision-guided weapons away from genuine assets (28.9.26).

Diplomatic Developments, Economy, Security and Politics

  1. India–France maritime cooperation: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar discussed joint efforts to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York (22.9.26).
  2. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, outlining India’s defence and counter-terrorism policy, said India would safeguard its strategic autonomy, counter terrorism firmly and strengthen defence self-reliance through indigenisation, domestic procurement and advanced technologies (27.9.26).
  3. PM Modi on terrorism and Kashmir: PM Narendra Modi reaffirmed India’s zero-tolerance policy on terrorism, citing the 2016 surgical strikes, Balakot and Operation Sindoor, in response to PM Shehbaz Sharif’s reference to Kashmir at the UNGA. He also highlighted several celebrations, including a birth centenary and the Somnath Swabhiman Parv, recalling the temple’s destruction by Sultan Mahmud Ghazni and its continued existence as a symbol of its enduring legacy (27.9.26).
  4. India is reportedly exploring access to Chinese airspace over Xinjiang to shorten flights to Europe and North America and reduce the costs arising from Pakistan’s airspace closure; Air India has urged New Delhi to seek Beijing’s approval for a Xinjiang corridor, as reported by the Hindustan Times, The Tribune and other media outlets. However, no official source in China or India has yet confirmed any such development (29.9.26).
  5. US President Donald Trump reportedly announced on 28 September at the White House that India’s Essar Group will build a major steel plant in Iowa with an investment of USD 15 billion, as reported by the media outlet PTI. Essar Group co-founder Ravi Ruia and Rewant Ruia will develop the facility through Mesabi Metallics. The plant is expected to begin production by 2030, producing 10 million tonnes of steel annually and creating up to 1,750 permanent jobs (29.9.26).

Iran

Law and Order / Security

Iran executed Hossein Pedaran after the Supreme Court upheld his death sentence for alleged espionage involving sensitive missile sites in Isfahan during the 12-day war. Separately, an unconfirmed media report said Haalvsh had released footage of alleged Fatemiyoun fighters patrolling near Zahedan in Sistan-Balochistan province on 27 September; the footage could not be independently verified. Haalvsh also reported weapons training near Saravan and the earlier killing of four alleged Fatemiyoun members in Rudmahi. The Afghan Shia militia is linked to Iran’s IRGC-Quds Force, and Haalvsh continues to investigate alleged Fatemiyoun and Zainabiyoun deployments (20, 29.9.26).

Iran–US–Israel Armed Conflict

  1. Iran thanked Russia and China for vetoing a US-backed UNSC resolution on sanctions monitoring, calling the veto a rejection of political pressure (17.9.26).
  2. China reportedly urged Iran to restrain the Houthis amid Red Sea tensions and concerns over disruptions to key energy routes (17.9.26).
  3. US Vice President JD Vance warned that Washington would not withdraw from its confrontation with Iran, citing risks to global energy markets and shipping (17.9.26). President Donald Trump reportedly approved sanctions targeting Russia and extended sanctions on Iran for five years (17, 20.9.26). Later, President Trump defended US–Israeli military action against Iran at the UN General Assembly, while Iran’s military condemned his threats and warned of severe retaliation (17, 20, 23.9.26).
  4. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed willingness to resume talks with the US, while Tehran conveyed its conditions for reopening negotiations; Iran’s Navy chief warned of a firm response to any aggression (22.9.26).
  5. US–Iran talks in New York, mediated by Qatar, reportedly produced no breakthrough, with both sides maintaining differing positions on negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz (23–26.9.26).
  6. Iran’s IRGC warned that US naval vessels in the Indian Ocean could become targets in any renewed conflict, while Army chief Amir Hatami stressed the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz (27.9.26).
  7. Imam Khomeini International Airport chief Ramin Kashef Azhar said international flights to dozens of destinations remained operational despite new US sanctions on Iran’s aviation sector. Earlier, on 24 September, Turkish Airlines, AJet and Pegasus had reportedly announced the suspension of flights to Iran, while several other airlines restricted services amid the new US sanctions and regional tensions (28.9.26).
  8. The US reiterated a reward of up to $15 million for information disrupting IRGC finances under the Rewards for Justice programme. Washington also sanctioned eight entities and five individuals over alleged weapons procurement and proliferation activities. The measures aim to restrict Iran’s access to technology, financing and military goods under the broader “Operation Economic Outcast” campaign (30.9.26).
  9. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, in an interview with the BBC, said there were “strong indications” that Iran was involved in suspicious activity at RAF Fairford over the weekend. The incident, involving a bomb scare near the US-used airbase, triggered a major security response, AFP reported (30.9.26).

Comments & Analysis: The US–Israel war on Iran has so far not achieved its stated objectives regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities or favourable regional terms. Despite intensive diplomacy and US–Iran talks in New York, the conflict remains unresolved. On 27 September, Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi linked the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to a regional ceasefire and sanctions relief, which President Donald Trump rejected. Saudi FM Faisal bin Farhan called for keeping Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab open, while President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated Iran’s conditional willingness to negotiate. The reported visit of Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to the UAE and the strengthening bilateral engagement indicate closer strategic ties amid shifting regional alignments, while the UAE balances cooperation with Israel against the risk of escalating tensions with Iran. The development could have broader implications for regional security and diplomatic dynamics. Despite violations by both sides and these emerging developments, the Pakistan-mediated June 2026 US–Iran MoU offers a potential framework for a ceasefire. Pakistan, Qatar, Türkiye, China and Russia could intensify mediation, with China leveraging its Gulf interests and its earlier role in the Iran–Saudi rapprochement.

Middle East / Gulf

  1. An unconfirmed report said China privately urged Iran to restrain the Houthis following Saudi Arabia’s request for Beijing’s help over Red Sea tensions (17.9.26).
  2. The US reportedly approved a $24.3 billion sale of 48 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, despite reported Israeli concerns over the deal (18.9.26).
  3. Pakistan condemned Houthi attacks on merchant shipping in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and called for their immediate cessation (19.9.26).
  4. Yemen’s Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on “sensitive” sites near Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport. Saudi Arabia issued security alerts in Riyadh and Al-Kharj amid reported explosions; Saudi-led coalition forces later claimed to have intercepted six Houthi ballistic missiles targeting Taif and Yanbu (19–24.9.26).
  5. Israeli forces reportedly killed Hamas finance chief Muhammad Abu Alwan in a targeted strike in Khan Younis, southern Gaza (23.9.26).
  6. Israeli media reported an unannounced one-day visit by PM Benjamin Netanyahu to the UAE on 27 September, where he met President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, according to Dawn and Euronews. The Israeli PM’s Office did not immediately comment. The visit came amid regional tensions following the Israel–US war against Iran. Reacting to the visit, Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned the UAE that hosting Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu could have “unfavourable consequences” and urged it to stop provoking conflict and making claims over Iranian islands (28, 30.9.26
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1 Comment
    Azhar Khan
    October 4, 2026

    Beyond the Kinetic Ledge: A Macro-Economic & Institutional Critique of Security at a Glance
    By Azhar Rashid Khan (PSP)
    Executive Summary
    Standard counter-terrorism periodic briefs—such as Security at a Glance (#25, covering 16–30 September 2026)—suffer from a structural blind spot. They treat national security strictly as a tactical ledger: tallying Intelligence-Based Operations (IBOs), militant casualties, weapons caches recovered, and friendly martyrdoms.
    By measuring state stability almost exclusively through operational kill ratios and localized kinetic activity, these summaries obscure the broader economic cost, fiscal drain, asset erosion, and institutional marginalization driving the conflict. A security architecture that ignores its own price tag presents a false sense of containment while the economic foundation quietly erodes.
    1. Tactical Reporting vs. Strategic Blindness
    Routine security reporting functions primarily as a retroactive event-log drawn from official military public relations (ISPR) and police notifications.
    Reporting Sourcing Bias: Over-reliance on official press statements creates an inherent reporting bias toward kinetic success metrics, concealing operational friction, intelligence gaps, and localized civilian impacts.
    Absence of Predictive Depth: Briefs document incidents retroactively without forecasting emerging threat vectors—such as the tactical proliferation of standoff weaponry, thermal sights, and commercial drone technology by violent non-state actors (VNSAs) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan.
    2. The Omitted Financial Balance Sheet
    The most critical omission in standard security assessments is the concrete rupee tag attached to kinetic readiness, infrastructure damage, and trade disruption.
    ┌──────────────────────────────────────────────┐
    │ Direct & Indirect Financial Balance Sheet │
    └──────────────────────┬───────────────────────┘
    │
    ┌───────────────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────────────┐
    ▼ ▼ ▼
    Physical Damage Tag Border & Trade Losses Macro-Opportunity Loss
    • Energy: Rs 3.5–5.0B/yr • Pak-Afghan: ~$1.4B (~Rs 390B) • Foregone FDI: $1.5B–$2.0B/yr
    • Transport/Logistics: Rs 12–15B • Local Exporters: Rs 280B+ • Chabahar Shift: $1.6B+
    • Security Overhead: Rs 55–70B/yr • Pak-Iran: Rs 50–70B Evasion • Operational Ops: Rs 180–220B/yr

    Itemized Infrastructure & Asset Degradation
    Energy & Power Infrastructure: Sabotage of gas pipelines (SGP/SNGPL) and high-voltage NTDC transmission towers across Balochistan and KP costs an estimated Rs 3.5 to 5.0 Billion annually in emergency repairs. This triggers industrial load-shedding, forces reliance on expensive spot LNG/HSD imports, and inflates power sector circular debt.
    Transport & Logistics Assets: Destruction of key transport links—such as N-5/N-50 highway bridges, security posts, and rail links—involves an estimated Rs 12 to 15 Billion in reconstruction allocations, diverting public sector development funds away from healthcare and education.
    CPEC & Foreign Capital Surcharges: Operating the Special Security Division (SSD) and dedicated paramilitary escorts adds an annual Rs 55 to 70 Billion overhead to the exchequer, artificially inflating capital expenditures for foreign-funded infrastructure.
    Border Trade Disruptions & Lost Market Share
    Pakistan–Afghanistan Axis (Torkham, Chaman, Ghulam Khan): Extended border closures and security lockdowns have caused a total trade disruption exceeding $1.4 Billion (approx. Rs 390 Billion). Over Rs 280 Billion in direct losses have been absorbed by Pakistani exporters, agriculturalists, and logistics firms due to decayed perishables and port demurrage charges.
    Pakistan–Iran Border Interdictions (Taftan, Gabd-Rimdan): Security operations and border friction cause an estimated Rs 50 to 70 Billion annual loss in formal customs revenue, shifting trade into informal fuel smuggling and unrecorded barter networks.
    Permanent Transit Diversion (The Chabahar Shift): Friction on Pakistan’s western border has permanently diverted Central Asian and Afghan transit trade to Iran’s Chabahar Port, where bilateral Afghanistan–Iran trade has surpassed $1.6 Billion, directly displacing Pakistani ports and transport fleets.
    Macroeconomic Drag & Sovereign Risk Premium
    Direct Kinetic Operations Overhead: Sustaining continuous field deployments, fuel logistics, ammunition consumption, and paramilitary upkeep consumes an estimated Rs 180 to 220 Billion annually from defense and internal security budgets.
    FDI Freeze & Growth Drag: Persistent risk reporting costs Pakistan an estimated $1.5 Billion to $2.0 Billion annually in foregone Foreign Direct Investment, while raising sovereign borrowing costs. Overall, sustained security containment drains 2% to 3% of national GDP growth annually.
    3. The Institutional Impasse: Kinetic Primacy vs. Political Dialogue
    The preference for military containment over an inclusive, civilian-led dialogue framework stems from deep-seated institutional incentives.
    [ Military-Led Kinetic Paradigm ] [ Civilian-Led Political Model ]
    ──────────────────────────────────────── ────────────────────────────────────────
    • Threat as a pure law-and-order issue • Threat as a socio-political grievance
    • High operational & financial overhead • Focuses on local governance & police
    • Short-term operational containment • Sustainable structural reconciliation
    • Marginalizes parliamentary oversight • Anchored in constitutional authority

    Institutional Self-Preservation & Institutional Ego
    For decades, internal security has been treated as the military establishment’s exclusive domain. Ceding this space to a civilian-led dialogue framework requires handing political leadership to elected representatives and local institutions—a shift resisted to preserve institutional authority and budget priority.
    Conflation of Grievance with Ideology
    Kinetic doctrines tend to treat all regional unrest as a law-and-order issue, applying heavy-handed force to politically aggrieved populations in border regions in the same manner as hardline ideological actors who reject the state.
    Marginalization of Soft Governance & Civil Law Enforcement
    Decades of prioritizing military-led operations have left civilian law enforcement, local police forces, Counter-Terrorism Departments (CTDs), and judicial systems underfunded and underdeveloped. Key political components of strategic frameworks like the National Action Plan (NAP)—such as police capacity building, criminal justice overhaul, and regional reconciliation—remain largely unexecuted.
    Conclusion: The Unsustainable Reality of Artificial Resuscitation
    Evaluating security performance solely through operational kill ratios while ignoring a multi-hundred-billion-rupee economic drain provides a deeply misleading sense of stability. Neutralizing insurgent cells without addressing structural drivers, restoring border trade, or correcting civil-institutional imbalances yields only temporary, high-cost containment. Long-term regional stability requires integrating full fiscal metrics into national security evaluations and restoring a civilian-led political process to address the socio-economic drivers of conflict.
    However, the ultimate vulnerability of this kinetic containment strategy lies in its stark fiscal reality. A country surviving on artificial economic resuscitation—bound by continuous IMF Extended Fund Facilities, high-interest bilateral loan roll-overs, and external debt servicing obligations exceeding $21 Billion annually—cannot sustain an open-ended, capital-intensive security doctrine. When debt servicing and fixed overheads consume the vast majority of net federal revenues, every field deployment, border lockdown, and infrastructure repair is effectively funded through high-cost borrowed capital.
    Because this security strategy is held within security circles and hidden from public debate and parliamentary oversight, the public is deprived of democratic ownership while bearing the double burden of inflation, elevated tax levies, and destroyed local commerce. A state cannot indefinitely fund heavy military containment while its underlying productive economy, tax base, and regional trade corridors are systematically eroded.
    Without a deliberate shift toward a civilian-led political dialogue, institutional reform, and regional trade normalization, the current security paradigm will not end by strategic design—it will be abruptly halted by absolute fiscal depletion.

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